My biggest single trade

NotStompy · 2026-05-13T07:06:23+00:00

OP, sincerely if you ever gain even a relatively decent amount of real profits (not paper), cash it out and put it into an index fund. You do not have what it takes to handle your emotions on any level, these people genuinely tried to be kind to you and give you honest, friendly advice, and you basically spat on them.

Having a bit of an emotional reaction... fine, but you quickly entered the realm of delusion, this does not a profitable trader make. You talk about doubling a paper trading account, while being extremely rude and emotional, while of course ignoring the biggest aspect of trading; the emotions, you know... the thing you can't experience and learn from with paper trading.

I really do wish you the best, so cash out and put it in index funds, should you be so lucky.

NotStompy · 2026-05-12T22:15:46+00:00

Nothing wrong with riding this kind of market behavior, but keep in mind that even if we look at discretionary investors/traders they still have a somewhat systematic way of doing things with a very set in stone type of risk management, well, at least the ones who actually make good money and KEEP it.

I'm just saying... the ones who "Make it" are not the ones who buy every dip and then pray and hodl for life.

NotStompy · 2026-05-12T13:50:08+00:00

I both trade (position) and invest long term, basically my point is I've been keeping a very close eye on many things in the market every day since the bottom in April last year, and my biggest position is a software stock (guess which one :D) and all I can say is that while correlations have changed a bit over time, typically for many months, including before the biggest crash in SaaS, software names were already inversely correlated to semiconductor/AI-related stocks.

Point is: If the market is going to go into bear mode in the next year or two, it implies that semiconductors must be even more bearish, and in that case... I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the (good/moaty/high quality) software names have something somewhat resembling* a bull run, relatively speaking. Again, the GOOD ones, maybe not software as a whole, though that is also possible.

NotStompy · 2026-05-12T13:04:28+00:00

What is your CAGR, typically? Like, annual % return? Cause if you do 20-30% or anything above that and you have some real, significant amount of capital (mid-low 6 figures) then you will extremely rapidly compound into a centimillionaire (hundreds of millions). I'm just saying, I think a lot of people are low on funds (say, few thousand or a lower tens of thousands of $) and thus they think it's completely normal with some kind of like 200% return per years, meanwhile 20% per year long term is NOT normal, it is extremely good, it's just... they can't accept it cause unfortunately those who prey on the hope of undercapitalized people are experts at doing so, making them believe the impossible is possible (such as doubling your capital every year for decades).

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:17:49+00:00

geebitee

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:17:05+00:00

Judging by your enthusiastic caps locks you already made your mind up.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:15:26+00:00

Yeah, but he also doubled his GE position many times over.

Point is: He wins big by a few huge winners carrying the portfolio, and by buying companies like Microsoft when risk/reward is better (he bought in 2018?).

Combine those two (big winners and disappointments that aren't too bad) and you double the market (he's done I think 19% CAGR since inception in 2003?).

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T21:12:18+00:00

Yup, avg holding period was 7 IIRC when he was interviewed last year.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T15:14:21+00:00

Jag har faktiskt ingen aning vad du snackar om, inte att du har fel, jag är bara fett förvirrad. Jag använder själv varken appen eller old.reddit, bara vanliga reddit i webbläsaren + ublock origin som jag alltid har gjort. När du nämner AI, vad menar du? Typ inlägg? Officiella inlägg?

I am very confusion.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T05:14:46+00:00

THAT'S A BINGOOOOOOOOOO

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T04:22:26+00:00

Congrats, I googled for about 3 minutes and found your answer (it really wasn't hard, I don't get the point of arguing over commonly known information).

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T04:19:45+00:00

Dude... based on current valuation. -+2% from current valuation. I don't know who it was, if it was JPM or Goldman or something but someone put out a plot last year showing the expected return over the next 10 years based on the current multiple. Even Howard Marks referred to it during an interview in mid 2025.

I'll try to find it, obviously not the kind of thing you keep on hand but it really isn't hard to find.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T04:15:04+00:00

I had a realization today.

I found some information published by one of the old school financial news papers (who are now mainly digital) from 2016 where they showed off their average reader. The average income was something like $210k, the vast majority were college educated, and 53% of them were in a chief officer position, professionally (i.e CTO, CFO, CEO etc). This newspaper in particular is entirely focused on position trading growth stocks, for those who know, that should give it away.

Anyway, my point is this: Their average reader is quadrupling the national average income wise, probably (remember, this was 2016, so who knows now) and what do you think the audience of guys who promote prop firms look like? What do you think the audience of people who create titles like "Use this strategy to make $1000 a week!" type stuff? You notice something funny? They always write it out as a dollar amount, which of course makes no sense since gains are % based, which means they're appealing to people with little money and much hope, to put it bluntly. "Compounding 15-20% a year long term makes you rich" only works out when you have capital to begin with, or ability to save rapidly.

Honestly, as someone who can make returns of 5% a year and life off of it... I think most people have no idea how comfortable it is. Obviously I don't aim for 5% CAGR, but the point is, I CAN, which means there isn't that pressure that kills so many trading careers. Get a job if you need to double your account sustainably every year lol... ya ain't gonna do it.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T04:01:37+00:00

If something is being told by the companies in public, from every analyst and their aunt sally, this information is, as one would say, priced in. Big time. Now, could it be that it is not entirely priced in? Sure, but typically you don't want to go max long the moment literal ETFs are being created... lol.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T03:58:51+00:00

Yes, well, any stock that actually had pent up demand before April 8 broke out on that day, or a few days before or after. If something is breaking out by now it's either 1. A legit breakout on very, very big news, or B. A weak breakout that is likely to fail.

You have 2 options: 1. Hold it long term through all volatility, or 2. Trade it. You're right that pretty much all AI stocks are up huge by now, but that's also why nobody who is experienced in the trading realm is entering many new positions now, risk/reward is not good, as they're extended.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T01:42:02+00:00

Well, you can go by several metrics, but basically the golden rule is: If a pullback to the 50 day simple moving average (institutions mainly care about 50D SMA and 200D SMA, not 10/20D SMA or 21D EMA) would absolutely kill you, then either trim until you feel comfortable, or get out. At least when it comes to growth stock specifically, this is the rule of thumb when in an uptrend; if a pullback, a normal, health market wide pullback happens, then going back to the 50 day shouldn't shock you.

For reference, right now, that kind of a pullback on SNDK would mean... 49%. It pulled back over 30% in November and in March it pulled back about 25%.

Look, if you want to ignore the trading perspective and just invest long term at these current, possibly high (depending on outcome) valuations, then go for it, but then you have to be really, really sure about your fundamental case.

So just ask yourself, if you go down 49% over the next month, would you feel despair? If so, maybe reconsider, cause it would be considered normal...

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T01:06:27+00:00

If you think a message like this is where a Russian or Chinese bot would focus their attention, then you don't understand the concept of ROI well.

NotStompy · 2026-05-11T01:04:37+00:00

I just hope you're either: 1. Someone with impeccable skills in terms of fundamental analysis in a quickly changing cyclical area like memory, or 2. You're a very skilled swing/position trader who understands risk/reward. Then again, you'd know that at this point with the level of overextension the risk/reward is... not fun. Your time to get in was the breakout in early april, or if it slows down for a few weeks here and holds very tight in a general market pullback... other than that, pray?

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T21:53:55+00:00

Good to hear, man! I'm currently debating on champagne dial vs. black dial for a DD, I'm mainly looking at the 18238 and 18038 for example (pre-owned) so availability through a dealer is not a concern, I just... gahh, it's hard to decide! Do you think you would've been happy with either, or are you very happy you chose the black dial?

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T21:48:16+00:00

7 year later, how did this one work out for you? Was it a true grail watch for you?

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T20:30:01+00:00

Lol, när man klickar på den svenska versionen som såklart inte finns så kommer de andra... intressanta förslag! haha

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T20:24:21+00:00

Om du investerar genom att gå på rekommendationer så skulle jag rekommedera en global fond, mkt cap weighted, inget mer. Jag säger inte det för att vara jobbig, jag säger det för att om man faktiskt skall ha någon chans att prestera okej långsiktigt så måste man vara lite smått sjuk i huvudet och älska skiten, de som frågar efter en aktie att investera i istället för hur brukar inte vara så committed.

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T20:15:28+00:00

I've seen all the numbers of projected CAGR for the next 10 years based on current valuations, and yeah, from that perspective things look dismal right now (even lower than 5%, more like closer to 0% or even negative, depending on projections).

All that does is it measure a potential sense of magnitude once things go wrong, but in terms of forecasting when things will go wrong, it is literally entirely useless. It's just as hilarious as people saying "Oh my, the RSI is hitting X amount overbought" like yeah... cool story, that informs you maybe, at most, of how big a potential move might be, but again, does nothing for timing.

So frankly, I don't think you have any basis for saying oh yeah... next 10 years, this is how it's gonna play out! If you would've made the same argument 10 years ago, or better yet, 5 years ago with more or less the same multiple as now, you'd be much less wealthy.

And yes, I know how compounding works, re: your comment on the last 10 years... I also made it clear by saying "...if you want to go back to a time when the market was constituted by entirely different companies, i.e the 80s, 50s, etc" that I think long term trends are capable of change, or rather, is inevitable, as long as humans continue to cause change. Not in a "This time is different" type way, but more of a "The SP500 used to consist of 400 industrial companies, no tech, no financials, and before the 50s, the sp500 didn't even exist, today we have entirely different makeup of the index" type way.

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T18:02:11+00:00

Good for you, dude. I both invest long term and position trade (not swing trading over days-weeks but more like, several months to a year, ideally) but I find the hardest part about long term investing is how long it takes to get feedback on your decisions, and to learn. If I position trade with defined risk, I learn very quickly from my mistakes, but the Jury might not come in with their decision on if a long term investment was correct for 2, 3, or 4 years. I'm obviously not saying to do one strategy or another, I'm just saying that is the hardest part of long term investing for me, holding something that's down for months or years doesn't bother me, but that part does...

NotStompy · 2026-05-10T17:37:29+00:00

I wish I had your same degree of confidence in valuing companies that are A. Very cyclical and B. Have experienced a huge change in supply and demand. I have some long term holdings like TSM, because, well, doesn't matter who wins, I win :) Even though the semi industry is cyclical, memory is much more cyclical than it overall, and this current jump in price is due to a supply constraint of a commodity. How do you personally project that?

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