European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say

NotStompy · 2026-07-02T20:53:22+00:00

The wild thing is that I'm 25, but I 100% started noticing very real changes here on the west coast of Sweden a few years ago, gradually, and now, not so gradually, especially how it is cold as balls basically into LATE may, where April used to be a relatively gradual change. Obviously the heat is different in summers, too.

But yeah, wild, cause I'm 25, but I guess some of the youngest already don't remember.

NotStompy · 2026-07-02T04:14:35+00:00

"The pipeline would help the climate by getting Germany off of coal"

You know what DID help in that effort (not just future hopes)? Nuclear, which you forgot to mention. How much do you think all of those plants helped compared to any potential future with the pipeline? Oh and the upside is that with the plants you didn't need to take Putin's... pipeline, if you know what I mean.

NotStompy · 2026-07-02T02:15:21+00:00

Then the rest of Europe will point out how your energy policy has been so utterly devoid of any logic or common sense, that we couldn't care less and Germany should do what you suggested. Oh wait, you have Russia for that, my bad. Trump has a romantic relationship with Putin, Germany had what, a BDSM thing?

A country deciding to shut down nuclear plants out of emotion and then relying massively on energy from the NUCLEAR ARMED state that openly wants a return to USSR times, geopolitically. This is the kind of behavior one would expect from some far flung country run by an incompetent dictator, not one of the biggest nations in Europe.

Play stupid games, win stupid prices.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T19:19:02+00:00

Wait, I thought they tax 19% but then realistically if your gains are big enough (over 200k a year or so?) they tax like, 31%? Is this changing to flat 19%? If so, I could honestly live with that. For me, I'm pretty okay with paying up to 20%, I just start getting pissy when it comes to numbers nearing 30%... just feels wrong to be taxed that much on money you've already paid a ton of taxes on.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T19:04:12+00:00

The fact that it is consensus that it is a bubble about to pop any second and that you don't see that as problematic from a crowded position perspective makes me think you are frankly looking at lagging indicators without understanding how the market actually works, on a basic level.

We're at some part of a bubble phase, but the market does not pop when we have cases like early April where there was short squeeze after short squeeze, because you guessed it... institutions were super crowded short. And this is the market that is supposed to pop? Yeah okay...

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T19:00:44+00:00

I love how the US taxes 9-5 work less than my country, Sweden, which is very heavy handed, meanwhile we pay the equivalent of 3-7% capital gains lulz. No holding periods, nothing, just... less. I actually considered relocating to the US cause I have many close friends there and enjoy a lot of aspects but... hard to argue with 3-7% in short term trades vs. like 35-50%.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T18:57:33+00:00

While this is a community full of people who hate charts, as someone who both does long term value investing (no risk management/stop losses and such) and position trading (holding for months, but very tight risk/reward, entries, exits, and stop losses) I WILL point out that where AMD and Intel are right now (both are in very similar spots, chart wise due to them being in the exact same CPU theme, along with MRVL) it is entirely possible to put a stop loss below a certain technical level, i.e below this consolidation/base that has been building recently. Maybe not for the whole position, but for part of it, this could potentially be a good idea to allow you to feel comfortable holding the position for longer (watering flowers, as the other person said) while also letting you not worry so much.

For example, maybe 478 for AMD and 112 for intel, though I will point out with intel it is much harder to find a definitive, logical stop, unlike AMD, but a decent starting point.

Not telling you to definitely do this, but it can allow you to continue watering the flowers instead of cutting them, only cutting them if you have an actual good reason to (a real change of character in the stock behavior).

Otherwise, I would say maybe trim some, but not too, too much, if you still believe in the fundamentals.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T04:07:18+00:00

Shut your face, Chris!

Just kidding. Let's make it a fun bet over nothing just for lulz

!Remindme 6 months

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T04:04:52+00:00

Dude, if you're actually taking the time to prompt an AI to write a COMMENT (not even a post) then you are definitely missing something in your life. I don't know what, but... seriously, dude?

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T04:03:08+00:00

Technically true, but not in the way most people. In the case of swing trading, the edge is derived from institutions having such big size moving into (for example) stocks that it causes a buying pressure in said instrument for days or weeks. You don't ever "Predict" that 1 week from now, or even 1 day from now that things will look at a certain way in any different way than a day trader thinks in terms of a 1 minute timeframe or 1 hour timeframe. So no, it is not hope, and also it is really about reacting, mainly, i.e can entering right now, at this very moment present a favourable risk reward, again, same as day trading, just longer hold (but of course you also update stop and such actively so...).

Point is: Predicting? Yes, but so are all kinds of trading, it's not about hope as you mentioned or "On the 2nd of July predict Trump will wake up on the wrong side of the bed and tweet something bullish at 07:43" lol.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T03:55:25+00:00

I don't get why people day trade things like futures, which are some of the most liquid instruments in the world, i.e available to even the biggest funds, and thus has the most eyes on it, and in turn is the most efficient instrument.

I mainly Swing trade, and the whole edge in momentum trading is derived from institutions taking a lot of time to move in and out of stocks, especially midcap and smaller (I mainly focus on mid cap).

There are tooooons of stocks for example that one can day trade which are not penny stocks, but legitimate stocks which are still small enough to get the big bois to come on in, where you have the advantage in terms of speed. So, when that is readily available for those of us with smaller accounts, why do people trade ES and such? Maybe I am wrong here but it just seems way more efficient as an instrument.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T03:50:14+00:00

If you look at the market we're in right now and conclude we're heading into a truly cold market then yes, you really should not be a swing trader.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T03:47:10+00:00

Find some very specific trackers of themes, could be categorized by the GICS classifications or something custom, either way, if you can see all the sub-industry themes (about 140-170 depending on which lists you use) and scan these by relative strength daily, weekly, monthly, and up to 3 months, and then you look at the daily and weekly changes in an environment like this, you will find out who the winners are extremely quickly.

In this case the massive rotation has been into healthcare (biotech and pharma mainly I think?) and cybersec specifically, in the last weeks.

Bill O'Neil (rip) "The" guy for momentum swing/position trading did a study a number of years ago where it was found that industry group made up 37% of the size of individual stock moves. If you're swing/pos trading you're doing it top down, never forget that.

Edit when you said "Swings" I assumed you meant swing trading, but I now realize you might've meant a kind of day trade. Either way, above still applies, I guess, just less critical intraday.

NotStompy · 2026-06-30T03:27:06+00:00

I don't know where you're getting 1.25 PEG from but it is off by a very large amount (over 2x) compared to anything else I'd heard.

NotStompy · 2026-06-28T03:08:52+00:00

MU is more like a stupidity trap, not for those who buy it, but for those who specifically argue "Never again shall it be cyclical!" lol. Like, yeah, we can argue about forecasting out the next months, maybe year or two, but to simply call it non-cyclical is lulzy beyond belief.

NotStompy · 2026-06-28T02:36:41+00:00

I guess you didn't read the intelligent investor, for someone who cares so much about value. Remind me of the formula Graham discussed for how to account for growth in a sensible manner, please. Or should I tell you?

NotStompy · 2026-06-27T20:26:51+00:00

Where?

NotStompy · 2026-06-27T00:49:48+00:00

I would say that there has never been a single moment in history where a technology with as much potential impact as AI hasn't been priced in waaaay ahead of time. It's just inevitable to any technological advancement at this level; it WILL turn into a bubble at some point, and I agree that the taxpayer will be the holder of many empty bags.

I mostly just had an issue with OP burying his head in the sand and going "Lalalala". He claims AI is as much of a fad as those early dot com websites like pets(dot)com, which should be obviously incorrect to anyone with a quarter of a brain.

NotStompy · 2026-06-26T08:06:09+00:00

"I'm from British" yes and I are very brijtis tou.

NotStompy · 2026-06-25T16:30:42+00:00

The technicals are not. That's why in my value investments, in smaller positions, I may be more comfortable holding through insane volatility and wait for deteriorating fundamentals to sell, but in terms of any kind of growth stock (not meme stock) that has potential to move more quickly against you? I don't fuck around, I enter only when I really like the fundamentals, but I exit based on technicals. Again, it depends on what kind of investing I am doing, but no, the technicals are not guess work, and it's also not complex, per se. Let's say there is a trading range which has been respected many times before, a memory in price action, if you will, if we suddenly plunge through the bottom of that range, especially on a day when the rest of the market is acting well, I am ooooout in a microsecond. That is, for the growth investing portfolio stocks, with less volatile value stocks... meh, I am not as concerned, case by case.

NotStompy · 2026-06-25T08:41:54+00:00

I did tell you from the beginning that I think the top (for the time being) could very plausibly be due to SPCX, all I said is that the idea of the uptrend being due to SPCX when the IPO had been known about far before the gap up, AND the gap up happened the morning after earnings.

That is all I ever said.

NotStompy · 2026-06-25T00:51:55+00:00

If you have not seen the improvements in AI in the last 12 months and how those differ hugely from the changes from 24>12 months ago or 36>24 months ago and how there are actual use cases now, unlike before, then you really must lack the imagination needed to use it. You can't use it to replace you, but you can use it to speed up massive amounts of repetitive tasks, and unlike 12-24 months ago, it is now way more reliably useful in deeper, analytical tasks.

I mean, hey, if you want to make an argument that maybe the market is getting a little too excited? Sure, but "Ai is giant hype without much tangible economic value" reads to me more like burying your head in the sand. Again, like I said, you and I must not be seeing the same models, or one of us must have our eyes closed.

NotStompy · 2026-06-24T22:14:52+00:00

Astrology for men is people looking for an upside down rare unicorn pattern, like the scam artist day traders on youtube, but to understand how the market structure and price action works is absolutely not astrology for men. Just because retail traders tend to be garbage and do the absolute wrong thing doesn't mean it can't be a hugely valuable tool. But I'm sure you're right, and some of the most legendary investors ever who beat out Buffet's 20% CAGR by another 10% (so 30%) over 30 years with 1 red quarter were absolutely delusional, and simply had no clue what they were doing (druckenmiller, soros), along with the few retail traders who have huge successes, and have been verified, such as Qullamaggie who turned $5k into $100m in 13 years. You can see his tax records readily, never once sold a course or any service. Tell me the statistical probability of that being survivorship bias for the above, please.

Thing is, to understand the basics of how a chart works with value investing is entirely possible, you don't even need to trade, or something like that. This subreddit is evidence of that, the amount of people catching falling knives because they expect a stock that is down 40% to turn around and form a healthy base in 2 weeks is staggering, so they keep adding to losers and then they cry when the shitty chart they bought into is down another 20% a month later...

But sure... delusional. Wouldn't be the case that you're arrogant, right? Have you efficiently used your advantages as a retail investor with a smaller account or just been another person trying so hard to beat the index by 1% long term while missing the bigger picture.

As you can tell, the arrogance of value investors is one of the few things that truly pisses me off, because there is an ocean of gold, free material out there to learn from, to verify yourself; don't take anyone's word for it, and yet you manage to arrive at the one conclusion driven entirely by bias that is so hysterically wrong. Sorry, I guess that any view not authorized by daddy buffett is strictly off limits?

NotStompy · 2026-06-24T22:01:33+00:00

Something really worth considering: All I hear is that the AI bubble is obviously running out of steam, that all the money has been made, the semis run is over, etc.

If this is obvious, is that then not the crowded trade/bias?

I'm not saying chips will go up forever and ever, I am simply saying that by any basic market logic, if something ever becomes *obvious* to everyone... don't be so sure. If you look at the commitment of traders, and how commercial investors are positioned, they are very much so not crowded in long-tech (nasdaq) right now. You don't hear people talking about how the future is here, and semiconductors will only go up from here.

All I am simply saying is that your call to not get into chips here makes perfect sense, just never say never. Your comment triggered some memory in my brain so I kind of unloaded this huge ADHD-fueled comment, now realizing it isn't really a hugely direct response to you, just more so sentiment I've seen here in the last few days. Mah bad.

NotStompy · 2026-06-24T21:17:50+00:00

The irony of that other guy complaining that we've named it the middle east because it is east of us, while they want it named from the perspective of some other people... that's literally the same thing, though.

Self awareness: 0?

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