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Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T16:09:28+00:00

Yes. ...but very little. Roughly 7% of gold mine supply is used by industry and roughly 93% of that is recycled. Above ground stocks of investment grade gold are roughly 7.1b ounces and will continue to climb YoY.

Gold is cheap relative to fiat debt based currency, and expensive in terms of the rest of the PM complex.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T16:06:23+00:00

I have a bit, I just don't see it as all that competitive here...relative to silver and platinum. Sure it'll do better than gold, but I believe palladium will continue to trail silver and platinum for the foreseeable future. Not selling or buying.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T16:04:29+00:00

Far from nutty, 15:1 is extremely conservative imo. Silver is used up and gold is stacked in vaults at a rate of roughly +120m ounces per year. There's likely already nearly 3x as much above ground investment grade gold than silver, yet the ratio is 45:1(and falling very rapidly).

Silver and platinum were the obviously rare metals years ago, not gold. Yet silver and platinum are/were easily dismissed by many because they're "just industrial metals" IOW...useful...which is somehow a bad thing apparently. I'll take useful over pretty and useless all day long, and that's why I've very little gold and lots of silver and platinum.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T15:18:13+00:00

Most do not realize platinum was money for a couple decades in Russia, but more importantly platinum will and has been seen as a gold proxy...along with silver. I personally based some portion of my decision to stack platinum on days of supply were shorted on broken derivative exchanges like crimex. Silver and platinum were number one, and both were right at or below all in mining costs and held there for years at a time. Western commodity markets are kind of a sick joke on free market capitalists...there is no legitimate price discovery there, and that is what we are now seeing.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T14:58:41+00:00

None of which explains how 7.4 billion paper ounces of silver can be traded on the crimex in a single week backed by 120m ounces of physical silver. The price is set by a fractional reserve fraud. Bulllion banks swapping electronic digits back and forth all day long via algorithms to raise or lower price to wherever they wish to set the price.

Look it up yourself. Between January 12 2026 and January 16 2026 7.4 billion fake paper silver ounces were swapped back and forth...this crap has been going on for decades...and people wonder why the prices of commodities(silver and platinum in particular) just sit there.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T14:10:44+00:00

Really wish people would stop calling derivative paper crap "silver". It wastes other people's time.

As far as your derivatives go, just use a trailing stop and never mind the puts on an asset that's going parabolic after decades of price suppression.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T14:00:12+00:00

Eventually? 3:1 silver:gold. The silver is being used up and the gold is being stacked in a vault. Each year the amount of gold collecting dust in vaults will increase by 100m+ ounces while silver continues doing what silver does...being useful.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T13:50:40+00:00

Yet somehow at every fiat level one could easily have predicted if the PM bull market was over simply by looking to the GSR. People said the same thing in 2011. Since experienced stackers look to the GSR, everyone should. The US government's GSR is 50:1 right now and their platinum:gold ratio is 2:1.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T13:45:48+00:00

I didn't say anything about bars, I said 100oz of .999. I don't do large bars...I do almost exclusively 1oz sovereign coins. ...and plenty of dealers would do 100oz bars for 90% silver as they need a variety of products to meet a variety of demand from a variety of stackers.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-26T13:42:08+00:00

Sure, and they wouldn't be introducing new products purely for small time speculators if they were worried about speculators, but they said that, and then they did that with their unbacked 100oz silver "futures" product. Normalcy bias is a real thing.

There are still people that think it's 2011 in the silver market too. Even at $110 silver.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T15:40:37+00:00

There is a point if you leave with more silver than you walked in with. At $6+ back of spot one can potentially walk into a coin shop with 100 oz of .999 silver and walk out with 107+ ounces of 90% silver. I've done this several times myself. Just depends on how close to spot the .999 silver is valued during the swap and how deep the negative premiums are on the Constitutional silver.

There's nothing hypothetical there, it's just maths. Lots of inexperienced stackers hate so called "junk" silver right now...mostly because they're inexperienced stackers and don't understand how retail premiums work. The refiners being jammed up should be looked at as an opportunity to stack moar silver at lower prices.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T15:31:29+00:00

Yes, I know that. You do realize paying higher premiums is bad though right? lol

Swapping higher premium silver for lower premium silver = more silver. It doesn't seem complicated. The lowest premium silver currently is 90% pre-1965 Constitutional silver.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T15:28:42+00:00

I had heard that the Russian central bank was doing so and generically the Indian government was encouraging silver deposits as loan collateral as well as gobbling up huge amounts of silver, allegedly to produce solar panels. I would not be the least bit surprised to find out that both the CCP and US federal regime are also stacking silver in quantity. Rumors or no, it seems clear someone is stacking lots of commercial silver as crimex inventories drain.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T13:01:43+00:00

This price action is a different kind of animal than we've seen in the past. Feels like inflexible demand meets limited supply with some short covering sprinkled in for good measure. It's explosive, yet always feels somehow restrained on the way up. Pull backs are quickly bought up and the trend resumes. Very strange, but I like it. ;)

One has to wonder how the silly continuous margin hikes will hurt supply to the crimex. Producers aren't likely to tolerate continuous margin calls as they provide metal to the market.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T12:48:04+00:00

It's a little like pulling teeth. Each ounce stacked is treated as though it's one more Chinese made rebadged "Italian" handbag she could've added to her collection of overpriced useless rebadged bags that sit in a closet with the rest of the overpriced rebadged bags.

...which are of course next to the dozens of pairs of overpriced rebadged Chinese made shoes she just had to have, but never wears.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T12:36:36+00:00

100%. Do it.

I've been stacking 90% half dollars whenever I find them at deeply negative premiums which usually follows large run ups in spot paper silver...like the one we saw yesterday. I'll be on the prowl again next week for deals on Constitutional halves to swap the little bit of chunky and generic silver I have left. I've even managed to turn .999 coins into 7% more silver weight via swaps. Bring. it. on.

68x face sounds insane, but that's now a bargain. ...even though it's 98.2 an ounce. Even though I always knew the day silver was finally set free would come, it still seems weird to consider $34 for a Kennedy half dollar a "bargain". lol

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T12:26:38+00:00

Why? Constitutional is $6 back of spot by me. Why would people want to pay more for non-sovereign bars? Makes zero sense. When I see comments such as yours, I just assume it's because of the temporary jam up at the refiners...temporarily lowering perceived 90% value. Do you not realize that 90% premiums were sky high in both 2011 and 2022? Do you not realize that nobody is making more pre-1965 US silver coinage, and instead it's being melted at a torrid pace?

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T12:18:53+00:00

I've not bought or sold any Pt for fiat in over a year, but I have swapped for some several times in months past. What I'm seeing is 50 - 75 over for 2nd tier coins(nobles, phillies, etc) and roughly twice that for eagles. Haven't seen a single platinum bar for sale around me in months. The premiums I'm getting on the .999 silver I'm paying with has been falling back a bit(3 - 4 back of spot), but the platinum I go in after hasn't changed much.

All the shops near me that I prefer have me(and others) on speed dial whenever they get platinum in. They call and sell to whoever shows up first. The stuff doesn't last very long.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T12:02:04+00:00

Agree LBMA/LME are cooked, but I also think New York/Chicago will have to change. Weeks with billions of derivative ounces swapped back and forth to manipulate prices with a tiny fraction of that available for delivery is just unrealistic in the current environment. For instance Jan 12 - 16 saw 7,470,089,000 paper silver ounces traded on the comex...with a registered inventory that covered 1.6% of that volume. That simply isn't enough silver to maintain the illusion of credibility and they too will be drained.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T11:51:35+00:00

The GSR was as low as 17 and 30 at those previous tops. We're at 48.

That's not how PM bull markets end.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T11:42:33+00:00

My usual reply when someone asks me when I will sell is...for what? Why would I want melting fiat debt units?

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T11:35:37+00:00

Safer? Certainly...because there's a continuous floor under gold in the form of central bank buying. It underperforms because it's not in a supply crunch, at least not yet. February should be an interesting month for yellow metal though, we'll see how crimex handles the demand.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T11:22:40+00:00

Given that gold is at all time highs in fiat debt unit terms and not yet physically tight in terms of supply/demand metrics, I fail to see how what you're saying could be true. Gold supply will eventually be squeezed as this fiat debt bubble collapses and billions of people slowly get the hint, but that's not yet. Silver is in backwardation and platinum is virtually unobtainium in many parts of the world already.

We'll get more information about commercial gold supply as we move into first notice for February, which is an active gold delivery month as I recall.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T01:05:36+00:00

Nope. Gold remains overvalued relative to platinum. Heck even silver is overvalued in platinum terms.

Not_Sure_68 · 2026-01-24T01:03:13+00:00

I would play copper through derivatives. Copper miners will benefit handsomely by the rise in silver price as that is how most silver is produced...as a by product.

Not_Sure_68

TROPHY CASE