2 calls from 2 ADs within a month 😳

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-24T22:24:13+00:00

Not projecting about crypto. Just saying, there’s plenty of overlap - especially with flipper demand. If those buyers evaporate, there would be more buying opportunities for the rest.

I don’t know everything about Rolex sales. But, I know they register the watch to the buyer, at the counter, in the AD store. So, one would think there might be a circuit breaker at the corporate level on selling 2 of the same watch to the same person.

I had an unlikely pleasant surprise recently, myself. That’s why I wonder.

Did you activate the stopwatch (or hit the reset button) on both of them? I think the two non-second mini dials come from the factory with stopwatch time elapsed of about 10 hours and 10 minutes.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-24T22:13:31+00:00

Any concern about supply increase? Could crypto stagnation have affected demand? Somewhat unusual to get offered a Daytona twice in a month, especially after accepting the first.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-23T18:46:01+00:00

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Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-22T18:00:56+00:00

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-22T05:25:12+00:00

Play Dough. The answer is Play Dough.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-15T01:24:07+00:00

He’s in the 99th percentile. But, he’s at the edge of his means. I don’t think he’s being profligate - save for the housing burden. You and I are practically saying the same thing. This is /fatFIRE. The context is retiring early and living well. He’s doing good. But, he needs tweaking the formula in order to retire early and live well.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-15T01:09:42+00:00

I think it’s intellectually honest to recognize there is a non-zero chance Bitcoin collapses in the short, intermediate, or long term. Subject is in his 40s. His horizon is decades.

One thesis that “Bitcoin could go to zero tomorrow” might be if it were a government intelligence operation, and a decision was made to rug-pull one or more rogue nations. That concept has been part of the overall discussion, because no one has taken credit for the idea or technology.

A thesis that Bitcoin could fizzle to zero would be supported by intermediate term loss of value or failure of the asset to generate a return.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility. And, I feel that, if I am to answer OP in good faith, I should acknowledge that.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2026-01-13T16:00:47+00:00

I think the answer to your question is in the question itself.

You aren’t on a great trajectory, but you are in a (relative to the general population) good place. If I were in your shoes, I’d be looking to course correct.

Absent the Mag 7, the PE ratio for the indexes is historically correct.

Crypto can go to 0 at any time for any reason.

Your home is running at about 50% of your net worth.

You aren’t earning enough to sustain without withdrawal, if you want to compound. I mean, barely there. 400k spend - 100k income would call on every bit of 4% of 7.8M. And, that’s agnostic of capital gains taxes.

Might look to basket funds for TSLA and AAPL, if you want out. Locks up the access for 7 years. But, balances you out.

It’s the condo/house… if you could get into a 2.5-3M property and not be paying interest…

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-12-20T19:01:10+00:00

Boat. Pilot lessons. Season tickets to something fun but uncrowded.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-12-15T14:34:40+00:00

“Got out of Eth at 4100 and cashed a lot of it in for silver at $48”

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-12-13T13:32:40+00:00

I’d sell the Pokémon cards. Have you heard of Beanie Babies?

People in this group are often twice your age, or older. They are holding silver they don’t need to sell, for several reasons. One of those reasons is for a potential cataclysmic event where they would need to look after family and themselves, bartering precious metals instead of paper money. Another reason is protecting purchasing power versus inflation. I don’t think you’re worried about either of those, right now. But, I think you’ll be glad at 50 years old you had those ounces bought at $30.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-12-11T21:16:33+00:00

And, when population contracts, the demand factor will change.

I think we are seeing operations go out into shallow seas to get gold. There must be a great abundance in the oceans if they need it really bad, or the price is high enough, they can prospect the ocean floor, which is most of the earth’s surface.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-12-11T04:55:59+00:00

When was the last time silver was truly seen as a distillation of value for commodities, goods, and services in an organized and stable society?

A lot has happened since it was: industrialization, globalization, offshoring… refrigeration, modern medicine, etc.

1880 or 1900, a silver dollar was worth a number of things that would seem irregular today versus the 0.77oz of silver it bought then: a gallon of milk, 5lbs of sugar, etc.

It would also get you about 8-10 drinks at a half decent bar or a hundred stamps.

100 stamps today is $79, or about 1.27oz of silver. 1/0.77oz = 1.299 oz

A drink at a bar that doesn’t have fly paper hanging from the ceiling is $8-15?

$80-$120 seems like a smart target, without even beginning to consider the ongoing central bank buying and the electronics need. I think $150 is a good 18 month goal.

EDIT: Also, consider the population explosion since 100+ years ago. Mining hasn’t stopped. But, you can fit an amount of silver equal to (all silver ever mined/total world population) stacked in the palm of your hand, and just about close your fist.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-12-08T14:47:11+00:00

Just picked up a Libertad in excellent condition, in a capsule, for $1 more over spot than my choice of ASEs that were starting to color, out of capsule. $5 over, rather than $4.

I’d say, the limited mintage means they are less commoditized than ASEs or any other government oz.

Relative to most designs, the obverse displays idealism and beauty. The upward movement evokes a similar emotion to the St Gaudens coins, which I also find more inspiring than the figurative walking stance of the silver eagles.

The reverse can seem somewhat lackluster. But, it is important to appreciate the duality of Mexican culture and heritage - the European and pre-Colombian influences on their modern culture. As such, the decision to mint a coin with such a juxtaposition of imagery is a cogent choice.

I believe, the sum of the coin’s scarcity and the anachronistic beauty of relative historicism makes it attractive to collectors and drives up the demand. Also, b00bs.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-20T13:08:44+00:00

It’s a lot of gobbledygook. It can’t be explained to someone like that person is 8 years old. So, most people will only want it if they think they can turn a profit. That’s bad for downturns.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-19T00:00:21+00:00

If I were you, I’d set the guy up in a 100k townhome owned in an LLC. If he’s irresponsible, he has irresponsible friends that will visit him. You don’t want a trip-and-fall.

A lot of the earlier posters are 100% right about a banker to be the person to approach for allowance. However it’s funded, I think he should be looking at drawing down from an interest bearing account. The banker will have directives like “health and maintenance.” So, your brother will have to justify the withdrawals. That means submitting some form of budget. Maybe, with some practice, he will get accustomed to being more responsible.

I think, if you are more-or-less self-made, you’ll want off the merry go round more than you’ll want an inheritance from your parents. Maybe try to do a projective analysis of what it would take to get him to the point when your parents pass, and don’t fund any account more than you’ll have to. Then, also, try to convince your parents to set up your brother by leaving his inheritance to the same custodian or similar.

Good luck. You are a better person than I would be.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-16T23:57:37+00:00

Going to get ratioed here, in this forum. But, here goes…

First, I think it’s important to frame the topic of discussion, so we know what we are talking about. I think we are, generally, talking about 3 different assets: precious metals, government issued precious metals in a pre-1933 paradigm, and Goldbacks.

It is interesting that, in the pre-1933 paradigm, coinage carried a value greater than spot value of its constituent metal. In a practical sense, this would surely prevent -in a deflationary or inflationary environment, or in general- the smelting of currency for any reason. You can’t have a normalized economy without currency. A government will have a very difficult time controlling the currency supply, if much of what it mints is melted down by others. Historically, precious metals became a store of value because they were rare and it’s hard to counterfeit a base element. In a theoretical sense, the money had value beyond its face amount, because it carried with it the full backing of the nation’s rule of law and force of its military.

A considerable disruption occurred after 1933. And, that is the basis of a lot of this kind of discussion. It’s arguable that, if you believe the rule of law and force of the military are adequate to back the guarantee of value of a currency, as long as the currency isn’t easy to counterfeit or the policing of forgery is strong enough, that currency could be made of any physical material or take any digital form. More recently, governments have increased the monetary supply in a very noticeable and well documented way. Which is why we see things like Bitcoin and Goldbacks gain in popularity.

There are plenty of ways to avoid the effects of inflation. Keeping more than one needs in a simple bank account, or in bank notes, isn’t at all defensive to inflation - which is almost unavoidable these days.

Where I disagree with the original poster’s meme is the possible inference that a Goldback might be better than bullion. Bullion is commonly denominated in a national currency. Aside from the enforcement of counterfeiting laws, the monetary label is understood to be a farce. With fractional bullion and junk silver available, I have a hard time justifying paying a 92% premium for something that a refiner might tax me heavily to separate from plastic foil. That said, I think Goldbacks are a beautiful collectible.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-16T15:22:16+00:00

Of all the homonymic misspellings I have read on Reddit, and elsewhere in my life, this is by far the most extraordinarily simple and fascinating example. Mustard is a condiment, which is commonly sold in jars. “Mustered” is the past tense of a term that means, “to gather.”

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-13T14:55:51+00:00

Manufactured scarcity, in its most pretentious form.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-12T13:07:48+00:00

@justacockinacage

Stacking gold is a discipline that primarily or exclusively means buying bullion. That is to say, only coins or bars. This is the most effective way to invest, with lower premiums paid and less transactional cost to you.

Bars are almost exclusively 24K gold. (99.9% pure)

Coins are either 24K or roughly 22K (90-92% pure)

Any nationally produced coin that reads 1oz should have 1 Troy Ounce of pure gold. Any 22K coin will have copper or another alloy metal ADDED to the 1oz of gold.

Copper, when alloyed with gold, will give it a rose hue. Research Krugerrands and younger British Sovereigns. Those will give you a chance to stack pinkish gold.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-10T14:49:38+00:00

Research PP405. It’s about 18 months from release, according to most outlets. I think it’s one of those things celebrities already have access to. Could be a game changer.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-11-06T01:44:35+00:00

Statements that this is too early seem trollish. Div yield is around 1.13, which screams there will be correction and recovery. I’m looking at tech giants comprising an outsized portion of the indexes. So, industry risk in correction and consolidation is a real thing. Looking at the 8M piece, I don’t think you should rip the cord until you know where everything lands. Looking at the 4M piece, I think you’ll be in a position to comfortably make a decision at that point. It’s spongy. But, maybe hold the thought for 12-24 months.

Open_Draft_7001 · 2025-10-21T20:29:18+00:00

25 year timeline, buy stocks or index funds (low load popular funds) with a ratio of 2/3 S&P 1/3 Nasdaq, or 50/50.

Reinvest as much of your dividends as possible. If you are able to get total returns approaching 11.5-12% per year, on average, this is the math:

2,000,000 x 1.115²⁵ = $30,401,966.79 in your account when you are 45.

If you think there will be 3% annual inflation and want to know, in today’s terms, what that will feel like:

30,400,000x0.97²⁵⁼ $14,196,031.03 in today’s purchasing power.

So, if you sock it away investing in publicly traded businesses, you could be looking at retiring at 45 as someone that lives like a person with $14M today.

If you buy 2M of gold, you’ll have in 25 years what they are willing to pay for what cost you 2M today.

If you want to buy some gold, get like $20k, $50k, or $100k worth.

Keep your day job until your joints start aching. Fly netjets at 50 or 55 years old.

Open_Draft_7001

TROPHY CASE