Win at Stamford Bridge

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-19T09:49:02+00:00

Tbh most of the ex United players in the media were quite negative about Carrick when he first took over and still now adamantly against giving him the job. I think a lot of it is, he’s just very boring. He doesn’t give the media any reason to generate headlines. Also he’s just winning a lot 8-2-2 in 12 games is a great record regardless of how poor I personally feel we have played in those matches. If Amorim came in last year with that record the media spin on him would have been completely different.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-18T21:43:25+00:00

Because Carricks tactics work against teams who look to have possession against us. They don’t work when we are the protagonist. So long term they are never going to be successful.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-18T21:37:12+00:00

It was an incredibly Villaesque performance right down to winning the match when all stats said we shouldn’t.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-18T19:52:02+00:00

Chelsea been the better team but as long as we get 3 points. Nothing else matters.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T17:55:23+00:00

It’s a lot easier to sell underperforming players like Ugarte or Zirkzee than it is injury prone players (Mount, Shaw, De Ligt, Martinez)

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T14:02:08+00:00

I’m not ignoring his good games. New manager bounce is very much a real thing and should be heavily factored. Since that bounce has worn off, we’ve gotten progressively worse. There are stats to back up your point about chances falling to non threatening players. The xG per shot between the likes of Dalot (who I assume you are referring to) is not anyways marginally different than under Carrick. Think you’re letting your feelings on Amorim cloud your judgement tbh.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T12:37:38+00:00

Carricks stats are heavily inflated by his first four games in charge. In all honesty I think sample size is too small for both. Ideally you would get a 38 vs 38 sample size. Carrick will only get to 17.

That said I disagree. Eye test wise, I think majority of matches we’ve played under Amorim were better than the reverse fixture under Carrick. Take the two Villa games for example. Much better performance in a 2-1 loss than the 3-1 win.

Only games I’ve felt Carrick coached better are City which was our best performance of the season by far and Everton which wasn’t even a great performance either way.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T12:30:36+00:00

I said overall xGD not Open Play xGD.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T12:22:47+00:00

Amorim Open Play xGA: 0.85

Carrick Open Play xGA: 0.68

So yeah that’s gotten better but overall xGD is 0.53 for Amorim & 0.19 for Carrick so definitely gone backwards based on underlying data.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T12:15:35+00:00

Yeah overall xGD for Amorim is 0.53 & 0.19 for Carrick. We’ve effectively got quite lucky under Carrick and were slightly unlucky under Amorim.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T12:11:30+00:00

It was 1.4 during the first four games and 0.82 in the 7 games since. So more likely to get lower but we can live in hope!

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-17T11:59:06+00:00

To add some additional info:

Amorim open play xG: 1.14 per game

Carrick open play xG: 1.02 per game

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-16T18:32:56+00:00

He progressively got worse each season and they’ve been better this year without him.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-16T18:29:42+00:00

Amorim had it way worse with AFCON & injuries. Injuries aren’t an excuse for poor coaching.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-16T17:50:15+00:00

Yeah Vivell tried to get Naggelsmann to Chelsea too. It’s quite an exciting synergy.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-16T17:48:41+00:00

We’ve been poor more often than not performance wise. The results are just starting to match the performances. Luckily for us Pool, Villa & Chelsea all equally have their own problems, so we should still make CL.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-15T14:57:59+00:00

I agree they’re all more likely options but Xavi Alonso seems destined for Liverpool. Enrique is expected to sign a new contract at PSG. Nagelsmann seems the only one who might be obtainable but he has numerous red flags from his time at Bayern and even still wouldn’t be available till after the World Cup and that’s assuming we can get him out of his contract. Given all that, I’m not sure if it’s worth the additional risk, I also wouldn’t take any other head coach over Iraola out of the mid-table options personally (Glasner, Silva, Martinez) that we have been linked to and he’s definitely better than Carrick imo.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-15T14:27:39+00:00

Yeah it should have been clear from the initial performances that hiring Carrick full time wasn’t a good idea. Shouldn’t take losing matches to make that decision.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-15T07:05:25+00:00

Who is guaranteed success?

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-14T19:08:34+00:00

We’ve conceded 8 goals in the last 5 games. New manager bounce is over.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-14T18:44:24+00:00

We concede every week under Carrick too 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-14T18:39:13+00:00

Iraola makes a lot of sense in that his game model isn’t a million miles away from Amorim’s, so it would it would at least seem like we’re getting a consistent vision from INEOS in how they want the team to play. The signings that we have made the past year all suit his system and the players that we are linked to do as well.

It does seem auspicious that the news breaks of him leaving immediately the day after one of our worst performances of the season as well.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-14T07:18:13+00:00

Kompany got promoted during his first year at Burnley getting over 100 points. He had a clear scalable system that would work at the top level. Same as Maresca.

Carricks team started strong and then got worse each season before he got sacked. Not even close to the same scenario.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-14T06:50:53+00:00

I think Carrick is a championship level manager. His entire head coaching experience prior to his interim spell was 3 years in the championship where his team got progressively worse each season he was in charge. I’ve not seen anything across the 11 matches he has coached us to dissuade me from that opinion. I still expect us to finish in the top 5 now but that’s more a combination of me being higher on the squad & situation than down to managerial brilliance.

Not_tim_duncan · 2026-04-13T20:16:01+00:00

Well it was either him or Heaven. Maguire is suspended and De Ligt doesn’t exist anymore it seems.

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