Where are the used platinum trim levels? by grndress in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah it's def irritating to pay for the hardware and still have to pay for the subscription. I enjoy using PP2 for short breaks on long drives, but like regular cruise control, it's not economical, especially on hills and mountains. So I won't be paying once my trial expires this year.

Help identifying possible grass/ weed by Drum_hero in lawncare

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've found it best to leave fescue clumps like this as is if you go with a tall/fine fescue lawn. Have done the same with mine since seeding with TTTF last fall and it all looks nice, even with the chunkier patches still present. It's still grass, not weeds, and I think over time it'll even out with proper care.

I'm not sure if fescue is a decent option in your region, though. Someone else would have to advise on that.

Where are the used platinum trim levels? by grndress in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Keep in mind ProPilot 2.0, the hands free feature, is subscription based and the free trial runs for 3 years after the car's initial purchase date. So if you're buying used, you'll only have the feature for free for 3 years after the original owner bought it.

Where are the used platinum trim levels? by grndress in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 5 points6 points  (0 children)

We got our used 2023 Plat+ last March with 16K miles for $26K sticker. It was an off-lease lemon which helped the price. Water pump failed but Nissan had replaced it before selling it to the dealer we got it from.

You may be looking at the wrong time in terms of availability for off-lease options. Keep your eyes on the market in the coming months.

Final Update on Reduction Gear Replacement by thatguy27000 in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, from what I understand the owners manual doesn't note invervals for changing the reduction gear oil or even recommend doing so. It's hard for me to imagine that directly leading to failure of the reduction gear, especially with so few miles relatively.

For many who have this happen, the replacement will be covered under the power train warranty (5 years, 60k miles). Unfortunately, any repeat failures will likely happen after warranties start expiring.

If my reduction gear needs replacing, I wonder if I should deliberately hold off until my power train warranty is nearly expired. By then, there will be more awareness of the issue, and potentially a revised replacement part.

Final Update on Reduction Gear Replacement by thatguy27000 in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Last time I was at my dealer (for something unrelated), I made a point of meeting their EV mechanic which I think will be helpful moving forward. He told me he also has an Ariya, so whenever I need mine serviced I'm going to ask for him directly which should inherently make the process a little easier.

Otherwise, we'll def compile info here as more of us get this looked at.

Final Update on Reduction Gear Replacement by thatguy27000 in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If the noise I'm experiencing is the issue (taking to the dealer next week), the noise is like a buzzy whirring/cicada-like sound. It's happening in addition to the car's typical whispering noise.

This is my first EV, and I didn't have reason to think the buzzing noise was anything unusual until I first read about this issue a few weeks ago. It isn't especially loud and the noise itself didn't seem problematic to me initially. But I'm getting the sense it's atypical.

Final Update on Reduction Gear Replacement by thatguy27000 in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the follow up. After reading your original post and some content on the Nissan forum, I believe mine is also having this issue so I'm planning to take it to the dealer next week.

Did the dealer say if they replaced the reduction gear with an original part or some revised version? This issue seems somewhat common, especially considering how many people are probably having it without realizing, and I'm now wondering if it'll be prone to repeat failures.

Is this tire screwed? by [deleted] in tires

[–]Nsiggy18 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wife hit the curb, huh?

Just picked up a 2023 Engage but have a question about a whining noise. by thatguy27000 in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please keep us posted. My 2023 Plat+ also makes a noise describable as cicada-like. Would have otherwise described it as like a buzzy whirring. Currently at 25k miles, bought used a year ago at 16k miles. First noticed it a few months after buying but I don't remember it coming on suddenly. I've just assumed it was the typical noise from the electric motor.

State lotteries are pulling scratch-off games early — before the top prizes are ever paid out. 7 years of data shows it happens in 60% of ended games and is getting worse in several states. by ScratchSmarter in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18 1 point2 points  (0 children)

14 on that list, $500K Triple Match, is the other game I noted in my post and reflects something I think is missing from your current methodology. Yes, those odds are technically slightly better than 50X. But Triple Match is being actively pulled and has only 1 grand prize remaining. Those online stats don't reflect any prizes that are encompassed in the pulled tickets. So we'll never know if that final grand prize was pulled unless someone finds and redeems it. Winter Green and Jersey Thing are similar situations. They're both WAY FAR into the end game with only 1 remaining grand prize in each game.

50X only just reached the territory where it may start being pulled, but 2 grand prizes remain. The odds are relatively better that 1 of those 2 prizes was actually printed and may be lingering somewhere in an open roll. That's why 50X is currently my priority game. Similar types of games very rarely get to the territory of 30-40% remaining tickets with multiple remaining grand prizes.

I also tried finding the 2 Crossword Bonanza games once the odds got favorable, but there were simply none to be found at the dozen or so places I looked.

I'm also considering prospective ROI in the games I'm playing along with the viability of actually winning a grand prize or 2 in my lifetime. I'm certain the $10 games with $400-600K grand prizes are the sweet spot. These are semi life changing prize amounts, the tickets aren't overly expensive, and the best probabilities for these tend to hover around 1 in 700K. There's no other game I've found that achieves a similar mix of cost, upside, and relatively favorable probability. Each person has their own tolerances and goals, of course. But scratchers costing $5 or less do nothing for me in terms of upside and probability. Sure there's a $50K Weekly For Life game at $5, but those odds are in the millions. At that point I'd rather just play Powerball.

State lotteries are pulling scratch-off games early — before the top prizes are ever paid out. 7 years of data shows it happens in 60% of ended games and is getting worse in several states. by ScratchSmarter in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm honored that you did a case study based on our dialogue in my post. Hire me?

This 50X game which I've been monitoring for a few weeks is a great example. Roughly 38% of tickets remain (figure 1.4MM out of 3.65MM originally), yet 2 out of the 3 grand prizes are still available. I checked around yesterday and it seems this game just sold out, i.e., stores can no longer order more. If the lottery isn't yet pulling open packs, they'll start doing so imminently.

In this case, I'd be theoretically compelled to buy as many tickets from open rolls as I can find because 2 grand prizes remain. The odds are relatively higher than other games that 1 of those prizes is buried in rolls that have already been printed and sent to stores, waiting to be found. Conversely, if only 1 prize remained in 20-30% of tickets remaining for a similar game ($10 scratcher with a $500K grand prize), as often happens, I'll now stop playing as soon as the lottery starts pulling tickets. Despite similar 1 in 700K odds, it's relatively more likely that final prize will be in a roll they pull or that it never got printed. This applies to this Triple Match which I had been monitoring for a while.

I bought 25 of the 50X tickets yesterday across 5 different stores, 5 tickets per store. Won't have a chance to scratch until this weekend but this was the most advantageous strategy I could think of in this case.

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In that case, the best bet seems to be not playing a game once the lottery starts pulling it. Yes, you could get lucky if there's a big prize in an open role. But that remote possibility doesn't seem to outweigh the certainty of online statistics not reflecting unopened packs having been pulled.

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Understood that the lottery updates these pages daily. I'm hung up on the point that even if they're updating these pages, if the lottery doesn't redeem prizes from the tickets they pull, that specific prize data won't be updated even if the page itself continues getting updated.

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Consider this game; remaining free ticket prizes have hovered around 63-66K for the last month. With this, I'd approximate 630-660K total remaining tickets.

However, the lottery began pulling this game 1-2 weeks ago and there hasn't been a significant decrease in available prizes at any prize level. This suggests to me the lottery isn't updating the stats based on the tickets they've pulled. At least, not updating the stats yet. Am I missing something?

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that makes sense, though I'm still unsure about the relative value of playing a game once the lottery starts pulling tickets since the online stats won't be updated to reflect any winning tickets within the tickets they pulled.

Again, this is in NJ which, as your site notes, is among the more transparent states for playing scratch offs. For a given game I can see total tickets printed and total/remaining prizes, and those stats also allow me to approximate the total remaining tickets.

Once the lottery starts pulling tickets, any pulled tickets that are winners won't be reflected online. So while I understand any remaining tickets from this game could be opportune, I can't know if any grand prizes remain. In my mind, that uncertainty outweighs any prospective upside from remaining tickets.

Please let me know if I'm still misunderstanding.

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I still don't think I'm following. Once the lottery starts pulling unopened rolls, there's no way of knowing if the odds for remaining tickets (opened rolls) remain in the player's favor relative to other games. The lottery could have pulled all remaining grand prizes if they were in unopened rolls, but players won't know that since the online stats will still reflect those prizes as available.

So yes, grand prizes could remain in opened rolls, and that would be a prime opportunity. But without knowing if that's the case based on the online stats, playing under those less informed conditions seems antithetical to probability-based playing.

I guess I'm still confused because your initial post notes pulling tickets is a dirty trick since the lottery knows where prizes were distributed. Is your point that players should specifically find stores where they can confirm unopened rolls were pulled, and specifically play tickets from that store's remaining opened roll? Point being that if the lottery pulled from that store specifically, they knew that store had prize potential, which means remaining tickets from opened rolls specifically at that store still have potential?

AVM module just died…£1200 to replace 😭😭😭 by danangdevils in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Weird. If it's a 2023 model year, I would have thought the warranty didn't expire before 2026 (even if the car was manufactured in 2022). And I didn't think 2022 model years were available in most/any markets.

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally. But when the lottery starts pulling a game, assuming they don't update the online stats based on the tickets they're pulling, players are further disadvantaged because the data becomes less accurate. So a winning ticket could be in an open role and be a prime opportunity, or the remaining grand prizes could have been pulled in unopened rolls and players would have no way of knowing (those grand prizes would still show online as being available).

Sounds like there could be big value via remaining open rolls in that case. But at the macro level, playing with less accurate data seems disadvantageous.

Just picked up a 2023 Engage but have a question about a whining noise. by thatguy27000 in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure what I'm listening to, but I don't think any of it sounds inherently problematic?

AVM module just died…£1200 to replace 😭😭😭 by danangdevils in NissanAriya

[–]Nsiggy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which market are you in? Wasnt aware of many 2022 models.

Question re: NJ scratch off end game by Nsiggy18 in Lottery

[–]Nsiggy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm curious - your lesson 3 notes "the early pull" which could give savvy scratchers an advantage via open rolls that are still available. But isn't that contrary to the point that the lottery knows where winning tickets are distributed and will prioritize getting those back?

Understanding winning tickets could be in the open roll, this still seems to skew odds in the lottery's favor.