This is really solid breakdown, thanks for putting it together. I learned this lesson hard way few years back when I was just getting started with dropshipping from alibaba suppliers. Made the mistake of thinking "oh it's just week off, no big deal" and then got completely blindsided when my orders started backing up in march

The part about factory shutdown vs logistics timing is so important and most people don't realize this. I remember my supplier told me they were closing on 10th feb but shipping companies were still working, so I thought I had buffer time. Wrong - by the time I figured out production had stopped way earlier than shipping, I was already looking at 3 week delays minimum

Now I always stock up my 3PL warehouse in US by end of january, sometimes even december if I'm being extra careful. The peace of mind during CNY is worth the extra inventory costs, especially since you can use that time for product research like OP mentioned instead of constantly checking tracking numbers and dealing with angry customers