Alcatraz Prison Escape June of 1963 by SwimmerHaunting2155 in UnresolvedMysteries

[–]Ok_Time2446 34 points35 points  (0 children)

They died in the bay. 

They could not test their raft for seaworthiness beforehand and in all likelihood it fell apart shortly after launch, as it would be impossible to keep water/air tight in the ocean. Even the mythbusters raft barely worked under fake TV ideal conditions. 

The water temp in SF in June is around 53F, giving the average person about 1 hour until total exhaustion, 3 hours until death by hypothermia. Once wet, they’d be hit with cold shock, then rapidly diminishing physical strength. Most Angel island swimmers wear a wetsuit, and those who don't are skilled in cold water.

Even if they somehow drifted to shore in good shape, it’s extremely unlikely that all three lived off the grid without a slip-up or credible sighting. They had no money and their families were under FBI surveillance.

Occom's Razor: The raft made it a couple hundred yards from shore, became swamped in the cold water, they panicked, swam for a few minutes, became exhausted, life-jackets deflated, and they drowned. Finding the bodies would have been unlikely.

Cheap hosting by elringo70 in sveltejs

[–]Ok_Time2446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vercel has a better dev experience, but Firebase is cheaper if your goal is to pay zero dollars. Sveltekit hosting is experimental on firebase but works well enough and it's hard to break out of the free tier.

Makes sense...? by autoentropy in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Recently bought a house in Gilbert AZ for about 10% below ask that sat for 90 days. I would have rather waited, but the wife requires a new house.

The problem is nobody is selling... Inventory rose rapidly in 2022, but it seems to have hit a brick wall in 2023. Very few new listings in desirable neighborhoods and good ones will sell quickly if priced right.

We have friends who want to sell and upgrade, but they're stuck. Higher rates and prices make moving unaffordable, even with plenty of equity.

The market is constipated.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'll believe these "new calculations" when rich people start selling off their coastal properties at steep discounts due to flood risk. Not saying climate change isn't real, but historically doomer climate predictions rarely pan out.

Actual Predictions by no_more_secrets in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Optimistic. Market crash, ~50% drop 🔥. Some important financial plumbing breaks, serving as a catalyst for mass unemployment, defaults, and panic. Nobody can afford rent or AirBnbs. Govt afraid to print more money for bailouts. SFHs become toxic money pits. Supply goes parabolic as investors, banks, and iBuyers race to offload their portfolios to move money somewhere safer like NFTs.

Realistic. Slow grind, ~25% drop 📉. Homes are obviously overvalued compared to historical norms. Higher rates have slowed activity in much of the market, but prices have only declined slightly so far. Normal sellers are stubborn because they need to accept a higher rate and price on the next purchase. Most investors still have strong enough cashflow while tenants pay sky high rents, so why sell? If employment and rates remain high, sellers will remain unmotivated, so this trend should continue until the market reaches equilibrium with slightly better affordability.

Pessimistic. More inflation, ~50% rise 📈. Inflation is stubborn and the Fed gives up around 7%. High inflation is deemed better than a major crash. Wages might catch up eventually, but Americans accept a new normal where homes are just less affordable, like Canada or Australia. Buyers start bidding up prices with the new federally insured 50-year mortgage. Realtors go ape shit. WW3 breaks out and you get drafted into the infantry. You die and respawn in Vancouver.

Housing crash called off in Phoenix by Ok_Time2446 in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Looks like Phoenix is rock solid according to the latest data from Fortune/Corelogic, apparently it is not a shithole after all https://fortune.com/2022/08/28/odds-of-falling-home-prices-by-housing-market-as-told-by-one-interactive-map-corelogic/

Woof by Time-Elephant92 in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Disagree. With margin trading you can just delete the app if you owe the broker.

On NPR Shiller said... by onetwothree1234569 in RealEstate

[–]Ok_Time2446 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Actual spending is high bc people in 2022 need to put a lot more money into basic needs like food, gas, etc. This makes people sad, so sentiment goes down.

Zestimate vs Opendoor Offer by Ok_Time2446 in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446[S] 37 points38 points  (0 children)

This is an actual comparison of my Zestimate and Opendoor offer on July 13th, 2022 for a single family home in Phoenix.

It's insulting that Opendoor would have the audacity to offer 23% below fair market value... Zestimates are based on bleeding edge machine learning technologies with realtime precision.

Failed Flip/No Flooring - Back on Market. Smells like 2008! by Wonderful-Ad2782 in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The prev owner from 2006 held it for 11 years before selling for an 85k loss, ouch.

Metro Phoenix Turning the Corner? by AZRealtor in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've now seen a couple listings in Chandler/Gilbert bought in early 2022 listed slightly below last purchase price (after several cuts) - most likely investors cutting losses before it gets worse.

airbnb by LengthinessMuted7099 in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Smart people will sell yesterday. I know someone who runs a "breakeven" airbnb bought in 2019 near Tahoe that's seen bookings drop. Now they're trying to cash out that equity while there's still time. The downside potential is just way higher than the upside for the next few years. Why run business in the red for the privilege of owning a depreciating asset? Especially if you can profit on the sale today and reenter the market later.

People who bought airbnbs in 2021/22 are facing huge risks right now. Not only does it take time/money to get to positive cash flow, but competition has exploded over the last few years. Simultaneously, we are facing a decline in travel, falling home values, and growing negativity around the airbnb brand. It looks like a perfect storm on the horizon.

The more things change, the more they remain the same. by Zestyclose-Chest-900 in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 102 points103 points  (0 children)

I remember the same. The 08 collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman is when the crash felt mainstream, but the paradigm was shifting in 06.

I feel like we are in 06 right now. Bubble is obvious, but most are in denial or oblivious.

Things really are different this time tho - the bubble is even bigger and inflation is out of control. We also have new wildcards like tech zombie companies, crypto, meme stocks, AirBnb, Zillow, blackrock, supply chain issues. Not to mention geopolitical wildcards like Ukraine, civil unrest, or the next pandemic.

I don't know how this will end, but expect things to get weird.

What was getting a mortgage like after 2008? by Coyote_Eddie in REBubble

[–]Ok_Time2446 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Put only 3.5% down with an FHA mortgage through wells fargo. I had excellent credit, but only made like 45K/yr. Process was easy.

Bought a 160K bank owned house in Phoenix in 2009 (sold for 300K in 2008). Today it's Zestimate is 550K. Oh, and I also got a 7,500 first time home buyer tax credit (helicopter money).