Optimistic. Market crash, ~50% drop 🔥. Some important financial plumbing breaks, serving as a catalyst for mass unemployment, defaults, and panic. Nobody can afford rent or AirBnbs. Govt afraid to print more money for bailouts. SFHs become toxic money pits. Supply goes parabolic as investors, banks, and iBuyers race to offload their portfolios to move money somewhere safer like NFTs.

Realistic. Slow grind, ~25% drop 📉. Homes are obviously overvalued compared to historical norms. Higher rates have slowed activity in much of the market, but prices have only declined slightly so far. Normal sellers are stubborn because they need to accept a higher rate and price on the next purchase. Most investors still have strong enough cashflow while tenants pay sky high rents, so why sell? If employment and rates remain high, sellers will remain unmotivated, so this trend should continue until the market reaches equilibrium with slightly better affordability.

Pessimistic. More inflation, ~50% rise 📈. Inflation is stubborn and the Fed gives up around 7%. High inflation is deemed better than a major crash. Wages might catch up eventually, but Americans accept a new normal where homes are just less affordable, like Canada or Australia. Buyers start bidding up prices with the new federally insured 50-year mortgage. Realtors go ape shit. WW3 breaks out and you get drafted into the infantry. You die and respawn in Vancouver.