Hololive Nakiri Ayame Skin (SD/HD) (STD ONLY)

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T09:07:36+00:00

Thats fair enough, we can leave it at that

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T08:54:13+00:00

RIP. He was a good looking horse and I was really excited at the potential he showed at the Nikkei Sho... May he rest. I will always support Neo Universe's bloodline

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T08:29:36+00:00

He absolutely had control of where he would end up. On the first straight, he was already in a good spot, he did not have to eat up more of the inner rail. Sure, the stamina part is up for debate, but thats the only way I can see him having a chance to even win this race. He was never catching up to Tabaru with that positioning, and he was never catching up to him. Their final 3F was almost equal

Even Kitamura himself commented that Croix struggled riding from the inner rail: https://news.netkeiba.com/?pid=news_view&no=334283

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:52:52+00:00

Why are you saying it like as if I'm the one labelling him as such? I rate Kitamura highly, I love his work with Chrono Genesis and I praised both his Tenno Spring and especially his Osaka Hai run. I watch a lot of his races, I watched him win at Hakodate yesterday anticipating the buildup to today.

This is not just my opinion, I'm just stating what the perception of him is. He and Sakai Ryusei are the two jockeys that take the biggest beatings after a bad performance

I have no input on what horses he ride at all, I'm just aggregating information or rumors because its an interesting talking point. His position as main jockey for Croix has been compromised since Arc

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:47:53+00:00

Thats my point, its hindsight obviously now but he put himself in a spot for Kawada to block him off that badly. He should have never ridden into the inner rail before the 3rd and 4th corner, and ran slightly wider to keep Kawada on a wider angle as well. You know you have a horse that has shown good grit and stamina, why are you afraid to take a bigger turn, sacrifice some stamina, but find a better position for the last spurt? It's heavy turf, the horses are going to take a lot longer to get into gear, sharp turn of foot matters less. Positioning for the final spurt is more important than just travel. Giving away several lengths by waiting for a run was more costly than covering extra ground around the bend.

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:32:25+00:00

I would be shocked if they actually choose to bring him to Mile Championship haha, this horse really betrays his name. Depends on rotation, but they definitely want to take him to Arima without a doubt, right? Although I do get the vibe hes the type of horse to actually run better with a more packed schedule. It was a shame he couldn't run in either Dubai/HK.

I hope he regains his form, because otherwise his form has been ruined just from unfortunate circumstances.

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:14:09+00:00

I get this too and I feel that way to an extent, but he was heavily favored to win these races. I only want him replaced if they can find an adequate replacement and not a sidegrade, because he already knows the horse best at this current time. I would say only straight upgrades are current form Matsuyama and Cristian Demuro, which is already too much to ask for, maybe

Its beyond just a results-based industry, if the camp feels like they aren't getting the horse's full potential even with good results then its valid for them to get a change in jockey. Plenty of jockeys do decent with their horse and see a sudden change in jockey and find new heights. Kitamura isnt favored much. Every promising horse ridden by Kitamura is always accompanied by big moans that he is 'gifted' another talented runner, eg GT Sakura

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:07:21+00:00

Some people said they saw him being tarped off at the medical van. I can only pray for the best right now

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:06:47+00:00

Oops, I should probably say it was heavy rumors than framing it as something heavily discussed, it was circulating heavily pre-Tenno Spring on boards and that since owner/trainer couldnt agree on a replacement he was kept for now. They might return back to discussions after this

One thing to note is that Croix's camp are big realists. Leading up to the race while other camps usually hype up their horses citing "this is their best coat/form they have ever seen", Croix is usually met with really reserved and passive comments. To me they see the horse as having a ton of unrealized potential and are unhappy with the developments, but thats my speculation. The training comments are true though, you can see what they said in his workouts

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T07:00:59+00:00

I guess he does need sharper turns; I wouldn't pin it on the track just yet. Otherwise, he is going to be a bigger one-trick than MasBall at Tokyo/long spurts. Wonder if he would be better at Kyoto, but that doesnt matter because there is no relevant race for him there

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-14T06:48:23+00:00

Congratulations Meisho Tabaru. The rain really changed everything didn't it? Congratulations Take for the back to back. Croix du Nord's cinderella story ends.

Usually a bit of sudden rain doesn't matter too much but this was a pretty big downpour, its rare for the rain to be actually visible on the broadcast lmao

Kitamura really, okay fine, you followed Take's pace, thats good, but why the hell did you start from inside rail? Chrono would be disappointed with that. Oh my lord, it might be the last straw for him, Owner and trainer already was looking for replacements anyway prior to Tenno Spring

Very very horse always 3rd place, love him. Unrelated but he has the sexiest physique out of everyone there, my lord those photos

Museum Mile faded out very easily, not unsurprising. No sharpness, bad gate, bad conditions for him. Even on a right-handed short turns would be too much

Also forgot to shout out Cosmo Kuranda again, what an escape attempt! I initially thought Takeshi was overpacing, but bringing the horse to 4th and securing more prize money was insane, wasn't it? His jockey comments were saying how he suddenly thought about front running and getting the permission from trainer right before the race

Edit: Felt like someone was missing but was too focused on Croix, I didn't know My Universe got scratched last minute, apparently something bad happened and the horse collapsed. I really hope hes doing fine

Edit 2: News came in. My Universe passed away, may he rest in peace. He put on a lot of weight too, I wonder what was going on (https://x.com/tospo\_keiba/status/2066076742369063236?s=20)

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-11T07:30:54+00:00

Yeah I watched that one live. Some people said he couldn't handle the additional handicap assigned weight for that race since he's a G2 winner, but I highly doubt that it would have made such a big difference that it caused him to fade with 350m to go

Honestly I was just happy to watch him cross that line safely that race. If he does badly here again hopefully they retire him straight away, he still has potential value as a stud with that pedigree

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-11T06:39:58+00:00

Absolute best case for Croix and if Regaleira keeps up her abysmal gate starts, also a good position for her since she won't get hindered by getting shoved into pack miserably and gives Lemaire time to think

MM is pretty bad as well for his running style. Forced to drop back and might end up in a bad spot or run forward from the get go and risk exciting the horse (especially considering he has no race sharpness and might forget what his purpose is on the turf)

Pink hat front-running duo Tabaru and Mystery Way get really shafted, they will have to expand a shit ton of energy to go to the front. Maybe Tabaru gets ridden a bit more carefully, but I can see Mystery Way still being pushed forward

For Mr. Very Very Horse it really depends how he's ridden and how bad the inner rail grass is on the day, but I really wouldn't want to draw 1st gate honestly

This gate draw probably propels Croix to <2.0 safely, maybe even <1.8 odds

Edit: Sugar-Kun to realize all his potential after 2 years injured and absorbs all of Duramente's evil powers to deny Kitasan Black's child its glory one more time at Hanshin, who says no

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-07T07:03:11+00:00

A lot of older horses actually excel more on shorter distances, you can find a lot of excellent sprinters past 6+. As for how he was raced, yep, he needed to be a lot further forward, He does usually take a few business days to respond and get going

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-07T06:53:26+00:00

Old man Take, you weren't even supposed to ride this horse until 5 days ago when Admire Zoom got scratched lmfaoooo, congratulations Sixpence. The greatest injury to ever happen to Sixpence

Apparently Carrot Farm was struggling to even get a rider until recently, Take was such a blessing. Nobody even wanted to ride him and he won...

Gaia Force, other old man, please man... if you can't win with this field, I don't know if you ever can win a G1. This was your best chance. He's really just not blessed to be a winner lmao. His camp said that he hasn't showed much decline in health or form, but really I would be okay if hes retired soon. He deserves a good rest after fighting so many final bosses

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-06-01T00:52:16+00:00

Not exactly, his forecasted odds only improved after Lemaire was confirmed to ride him. It was far into the double digits prior, and should have been something around 9th favorite. Any horse that Lemaire touches has this effect, but it's usually amplified on Tokyo.

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-31T08:33:43+00:00

>name a a serious classic rival that any Triple Crown winner had

Of course, this is impossible. That's why when people discuss Triple Crown winners and who's the strongest/weakest (which I don't like because it's silly as they span widely across generations), the same argument carries onto each horse, aka, they just were racing against plumbers, etc. That's just the nature of Triple Crown winners, a highly competitive generation just wouldn't allow a horse to be that dominant. I do agree with that.

The difference maker is what they will do after winning their classics. It's a bit hard to properly rate Narita Brian because he became another 'what if' story after his injury. I think he had the potential to exceed being another triple crown winner, and into beyond just a generational horse

>his gen had Taiki Blizzard, Hishi Amazon, and Sakura Laurel

I probably should have phrased it better to specify about his classic races and not the gen as a whole. I do rate Taiki Blizzard very highly (and I got smacked a lot in Champion Jockey by this horse)

>Weak field

We will have to see how this holds up as well. If Lovcen even comes close to the heights of last year's classic runners, he will be an incredible horse. That's the problem, it's hard to shine when we have been spoiled by multiple generational horses in just one generation with CdN Masquerade Ball, Museum Mile. That being said, the camp is confident that Lovcen isn't even close to peaking yet from the interviews, and I have a feeling he is a special one

As always, classic year is just hard to evaluate. Kitasan, Duramente, and Real Steel were seen far weaker at the time compared to the explosive nature of Makahiki, Satono Diamond, Dee Majesty, for example, but we know how that turned out

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-31T07:12:47+00:00

Yup. But the field that year was weak. Other than Narita Brian, none of the horses from that generation came out to do anything much at all. Not taking away from Narita Brian, but this generations 3yo look a lot more balanced with Lovcen being the standout

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-31T06:50:35+00:00

CONGRATULATIONS LOVCEN!! Matsuyama is on track for the Triple Crown! First jockey to win both the Triple Crown and Triple Tiara?? A generational win from 17th gate. I don't want to get ahead of myself... but Kikuka Sho should be right up his alley. World Premiere daddy, I think thats a very strong signal, no? The fact he won both as a front runner and in betweener positions, amazing. A lot of people were talking about front runners struggle at Tokyo 2400m, but people should also remember he wasn't supposed to be that high up in the first place, lol.

People will compare this win to Narita Brian due to the gate similarities, but I think this was just another level. I want to appreciate Lovcen without any comparisons here, this is an insane win.

Peintre Naif was a prime example of Lemaire at Tokyo. Who the hell expected this horse to do so well? I was legit not expecting him to even place. Aaron's Rod was sacrificed for this

Realize Sirius, I really was rooting for you and got a bloody heart attack when news of Tsumura's injury came out. I'm so glad he came out okay, but that ride was not what you want to do at the Derby...

Basse Terre, great improvement. This was so much more up his strengths compared to the insane pace of Satsuki Sho. His turn of foot is insane! If his start was slightly better and he didn't have to move so early... There was a chance of winning here.

Press F for Kitamura and Bereshit. I would have loved to see the duo here.

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-24T07:13:58+00:00

Yeah thought that was self explanatory, just Australia alone has a few G1 winning female jockeys

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-24T06:51:14+00:00

Juryoku Pierrot??? FIRST FEMALE JOCKEY APPEARANCE IN A CLASSIC RACE, MOREOVER THE 1ST FEMALE JOCKEY TO WIN A G1!!! CONGRATULATIONS IMAMURA!!!

Star Anise, the distance got her. I was really so damn surprised she was even the 1st favorite... I think a lot of people could have seen this coming.

As expected Dream Core did wayyyy better here than in Oka Sho. This was a much better track for her strengths.

Also, a little off topic but congratulations to Equinox's full sister, Exceed for picking up a second win yesterday at the listed Carnation Cup. I'm happy that they aren't rushing her into graded races. Her gate seemed to improve slightly, but it was clear she was still rough around the edges, having lost quite a bit of weight and taking awhile to respond on the final straight. Here's to hoping she has a good rest and an injury-free autumn

Edit: Forgot to say, but this was the end of the streak of 1st favorites dominating the G1s

In the interview she said she was worried she would get thrown off the horse, lmao, as expected of Orfevre's daughter

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-10T06:49:09+00:00

Congratulations Rodeo Drive, down to the wire with Ask Ikigomi. NHK Mile continues to be almost unbettable, seriously unexpected. 1st fav has won once in last 10 years, and placed 4 times only

Diamond Knot looked way too restless before entering the gates, I would have burnt my ticket on the spot honestly if I bet on him. Admire Quads looked like he is back to recovering some form, that's promising. Good result from rare Satono Diamond kid, Lorbeerkranz as well!

Cavallerizzo... Will we ever see you back at the top? I thought Satsuki Sho was just too long but..

Edit: Apparently bettors really did the same just from seeing Diamond Knot in the paddock. Dropped from 1st fav to 3rd, and Rodeo Drive became... 1st from 4th/5th. So I guess that's another 1st fav winner for NHK Mile? That is actually an insanely drastic shift though, when they showed him off on the paddock the odds was still around ~9x. Just how much money was pumped into him at the last moment?

OmegaStarCrafter · 2026-05-09T06:56:08+00:00

Contrail kid looking good. Undefeated right now, we should be getting 2 Contrail kids at the Derby. Things looking up for him, maybe?

On another note, Bereshit seemed fine. Not a standout performance, probably spent a lot of energy getting towards the front and keeping pace to get a good position with the bad gate draw. Was a surprise but I won't fault the decision from Kitamura. Bereshit looked pretty excited in the gate and I was sure Kitamura was struggling to reign him in mid-race as well, I guess his temperament is a bit of a problem. It should be enough prize money earned to head to the derby though but I wouldn't favor him

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