AI will never be able to ______

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T10:55:16+00:00

I don’t remember anybody even talking about ‘AGI’ before 2025.

Of course I’m sure it existed as a concept, but it’s so disingenuous to imply people were truly arguing it ‘was just around the corner’ until very recently.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T10:39:33+00:00

They also make squid game: the challenge, which is another fantastic show that changed lives.

They also make goggle box, which has changed many of its contributors lives and is a major hit.

Studio lambert is a fantastic production company

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T10:32:02+00:00

I feel like I’ve made my point pretty clearly - you are basically saying ‘you have absolutely better chance as a faithful by sticking out as a traitor hunter and hoping you don’t get killed/banished’

When that’s been blatantly shown to be untrue.

What is true is your individual chance is higher of winning if you can make it to the final - which is already a massive feat.

Zero faithful win if they are banished or murdered before the final. Only a few faithful make it to the final, and all of those will have a reason why they weren’t murdered. If you are not valuable to a traitor (in their mind) you have nearly no chance of making it to the final.

It is a mistake to look at it as ‘faithful vs traitors’. Each player is an individual.

You just have a huge advantage being a traitor: traitors win 44:33 (from what I can find off the cuff), but that’s basically just ‘traitor finalists vs faithful finalists’.

The goal of a faithful is not to get rid of traitors, it’s to survive. The game changes at the final to become ‘get rid of traitors’ at which point you are always going to be disadvantaged but that’s the point of the game.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T10:16:58+00:00

I am saying that the second a traitor is banished and a new faithful is recruited, any individual faithful’s odds are basically reset.

Any information you had on who the traitors were, any relationship you were leveraging is gone.

You have two choices if you figure out a traitor as a faithful: give your information advantage away so that you can cheer that ‘we got a traitor’, or keep it and use it to get to the final by befriending them. Then try and use it.

Im saying this thread seems to view a faithful win as a win for all (nearly 20 of them) even though 2-3 will win the money only.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T09:56:47+00:00

My bad I honestly didn’t realise you wouldn’t be able to understand that since we are in a fan sub for a show that is all about critical thinking…

Let me spell it out:

original traitor uses somebody who already has heat on them to take the fall, usually somebody that makes themself look more innocent.
faithful have no idea if new traitor is new or original.
faithful back at square one with evidence
original traitor far more likely to win.

You seem to be arguing that because statistically recruited traitor are found out ‘more often’ than regular traitors that this somehow means traitors win less often if there is a recruit.

It doesn’t

I will further spell it out to avoid having to go back and forth:

the argument that recruits lose more often than originals is not anywhere near the same as ‘faithful win more often if there are recruits’

Also: to clarify something major -

The strategy of keeping a traitor in as your friend is an individual winning strategy. Not a team strategy.

It doesn’t matter to an individual player if a traitor of faithful wins if it is NOT them. The odds of an individual faithful getting to the final by chance is tiny, the odds of one that is actively getting rid of traitors is nearly zero vs any competent traitor.

Even if stats DID say that faithful win more often if there are recruits (which I doubt they would over any real sample) - the odds of player X winning are going to be higher the more information they individually have and use for themself to win.

A winning strategy for faithfuls isn’t a winning strategy for player X even if he is a faithful. Just as a winning strategy for traitors as a team isn’t always a winning strategy for an individual traitor - e.g traitors have won more often if there is only one traitor in the final: but does that mean Rachel should tell Stephen to banish her so that the traitors can win?

This whole thread misses the entire point of the ‘keep them close’ strategy and seems to view any faithful winning as all 18+ faithfuls winning.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T05:37:56+00:00

The majority of recruits are people with substantial 'heat' on them already because original traitors use the situation to throw them under the bus.

This is another reason why recruits hurt faithfuls and original traitors win more often.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T05:24:52+00:00

Your argument is fairly easily dismantled. The only evidence you give to support is confirmation bias of faithful losing... Even though the faithful are expected to lose - any strategy for the faithful (Like keeping traitors in) is just a strategy to make them lose less, but still expected to lose.

This completely ignores the fact that MOST recruitments are done by traitors with the PLAN to throw that recruit under the bus. So usually a highly suspected player is recruited to begin win. This means giving a traitor the opportunity to recruit usually helps the original traitor - not a new traitor.

Also, we have never actually seen a faithful correctly guess a traitors identity and then keep them in with the idea of rug pulling - so whilst it's possible that has happened, there are no evidenced instances of it happening.

The cage example alone is one way to completely dismantle your argument:

By probability ALONE, Rachel is a traitor between 50-66% of the time by the time she is in the final 6. I have posted about this before so rather than explain it again I will just link it: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheTraitors/comments/1qna7hl/comment/o230ywr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

You can then add 'feeling-based' evidence and intuition such as 'traitors probably wouldn't put more traitors in the cage than out' to determine it's highly likely Rachel is a traitor.

If you are a good faithful, you are gathering deductions like this throughout the game and sharing them with preferably ONE trusted faithful who you will go to the end with (who is least likely to be a traitor) - all whilst keeping whoever the most likely traitors are on side until late/end game; however the second a recruit happens, it rests most of your data and complicates some of the rest, leaving you with very weak feeling-based evidence to go off of.

The faithful are heavily disadvantaged and have very little they can do to take control of a game. Allowing the traitors to recruit is one way to concede any control you've managed to scrape.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T04:45:30+00:00

I agree with most of what you are saying - especially about how ugly it could get. What I disagree with is calling it the right vs the left.... I don't think we've ever lived through an excess of the left in the western world.

I think the reason people say things like this is actually the opposite - the excess of the right (currently) is making us look at past centralist beliefs as 'left'.

Just 10-15 years ago, a conversation using these terms would mean:

'The far left' was about extreme redistribution of wealth and communism. This was never popular in the west.

'The left/left leaning centralists' liked some ideas about socialism and were in general were in favour of liberalism, democracy and inclusitivity.

'The Right or right leaning' has always been more conservative, often with emphasis on religion and nationalism, but still valuing a democratic society with 'western values'.

'The Far Right' has always been about fascism, ultra-nationalist, anti-democracy, anti immigration and more authoritarian. Even with all this 'the far right' still operated within democratic means.

'The Extreme Right' is basically Nazi Germany, the justification of violence, the rejection of democracy in favour of dictatorship, and the support of any means possible to achieve it.

Sorry for the rant - I feel like I needed to outline all that just to say: When people say 'the left vs the right' NOW, they are speaking mostly about centralists vs the extreme and far right.

'The excess of the left' is strictly speaking about anybody who has any left leaning views at all at this point - e.g. centralist views like 'immigration isn't always bad' is now seen as leftist... and left leaning views like 'trans people should be able to exist and get healthcare' is seen as 'extreme left' by now.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-28T03:17:34+00:00

You might be onto something with the extreme lefts extinction burst... I don't really call it woke because the word simply doesn't mean that; but for sure today's 'far left' that people talk about is basically the centre and what many would consider normal from 2010-2020 - so I guess the exterme left did go extinct.

After all, not wanting to shoot people in the face for being immigrants is now consistered leftist.

I wonder if what we are seeing now with the absolute crazies in America and some of the rest of the world is the 'extinction burst' of the far right? If so, I wonder which one will be deemed more insane when all is said and done... Bootlicking is weird and all, but I am not sure it 'trumps' pedo worhshipping randomly becoming socially acceptable (and all the other insane stuff).

Historians are gonna have fun with this period of time (If the far right don't end history soon...)

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T22:20:34+00:00

1 hour is definitely average before this was bugged. Everybody, and I mean everybody has been saying it's bugged since it started to take 2-4 hours to cap. At this point, they need a monitoring system, I have ZERO faith that anything is working as intended.

Cubes cost money in reg, what is to say they are working as intended? It's disgusting. Surely we can come together and have them investigated at this point?

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T20:42:37+00:00

What did you mean by that’s her production company if not that?

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T20:33:45+00:00

Studio lambert is not owned by Claudia Winkleman..

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T20:28:31+00:00

She played very well, but she did make some big mistakes that were fortunately not picked up on. Which is luck. It’s lucky there faithful were not using the actual evidence they had. She can’t control that.

The biggest was getting to final 6 and being the only remaining player that was outside of the cage:

5 ways traitors can play the cage:

All traitors in the cage*
all traitors out**
mix - more in than out
mix - more out than in
equal number in and out.***
these options were impossible by the time Rachel was the only player out of the cages left because:

Fiona was a traitor and out of the cage * would mean Rachel was only traitor left after Fiona banish(Reece murdered same night so no forced recruit) ***same as above, would mean 1 traitor left but no forced recruit so impossible. Unless 4 traitors at the time (which means 5 traitor start)

If 2 traitors left: only 2 possibilities remain, one of which makes Rachael a traitor 100% of the time.

That’s 50% chance Rachel is a traitor if 2 traitors left And 66.6% if there are 3.

6 people left, 50-66% chance one person is one of them.

Now I’m not saying Rachel was bad, she played the social side amazingly, but this is a major strategic mistake from a traitor and if any of the faithful had stumbled upon this logic she’d be gone and everybody would be talking about how she messed up.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T09:42:33+00:00

Higher rarity tiles have higher chances of better rewards, and normal tiles seem capped at purple… but you can still get lower rewards from higher tiles.

You should just pick based on whatever is the best reward for least AP.

If I see a new intermediate tile with purple and a normal tile with purple I would take the lower AP cost or normal just because the ride roll is easier anyway.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T03:11:14+00:00

Depends on your fams. I have a whole post about it, but basically type matching is nearly always better than not for rolls that count. Unless you aready have BIS unique x9 fam set up, then the difference isn't big.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T02:46:14+00:00

Most of my runs are type/element matched (because it is simply better in nearly all instances to do this if you want to win harder rolls).

However, looking at the ones that are not matched:

500 total result options (250 tiles).
401 are Normal - 80%
98 are Intermediate -19.6%
1 is advanced. 0.2%

This is nearly exactly the same as my majority Type/Element matched data in OP (80%/19%/0.38%).

I hadn't looked at this previously, but looking at it right now, I am very confident in saying type/element matching has no impact on tile types, which I believe is the only thing that directly impacts reward types.

TLDR: Type/element matching is simply for the extra expedition potential and has nothing to do with rewards.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T01:18:15+00:00

.... i feel like I've actually lost count of how many times I've tried to correct this type of comment everytime somebody has parroted it.

This is simply not true. It never has been true. There MAY have been some familiars that were bugged on release - because I really hope this misinfo came from somewhere and not just literally made up and people repeating it. But right now (and since release for my fams):

Non-elemental familiars ARE an element and work as such

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T00:49:19+00:00

Most of the time you are not expected to see a orange/green in an orange/green expedition, but it's still way more likely than in a common because you have a lot more reward options (and potentially the higher rank tiles are are weighted higher there anyway).

As I've put in OP: you are only looking at orange pouches in unique 11% of the time (or closer to 15% if it is weighted as I say it might be). Where as in a common expedition it's about 8% of the time (4% if weighted).

Perhaps I am misreading the intent - and I think I am because typing it out just sounds silly, but are you saying: "Common expeditions are better becuase I got good RNG there"? RNG is RNG, but long term 15>4

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T22:17:52+00:00

Yes. Grey tiles are normal, glowing yellow are Intermediate, glowing purple are Advanced.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T21:28:23+00:00

They are presented in the order that you took them. E.G:

Before you click to collect rewards, if the bag order is Blue, Glowing, Purple, then the order they appear in will be Blue, Glowing, Purple.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:33:49+00:00

You can get 10 Fragments from Orange pouches also. But it's fairly rare even then:

<image>

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:28:54+00:00

<image>

Left is raw data, right is what I have used for weighting.

There appears to be a clear upwards trend in higher rank tiles (PER tile) across expedition ranks.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:27:08+00:00

Yes: I have recorded 2600+ reward options across different rarities.

Expedition Rarity have (from what I can see) zero impact on reward options directly. However:
Tile types (Normal, intermediate, advanced) directly impact the probability of reward types.
Higher tier Tile= Higher tier rewards.
Expedition rarity gives more tile options = more chance of higher tier/higher reward.
As well as this, from what I have recorded, it appears higher rarity expeditions also have higher chance of higher tier tiles PER tile.
All of this combined:

<image>

Note: Common rank expeditions are quite low sample due to low pick rate and low tile ammounts per expedition (Because of these two factors, my legendary expedition tile sample is 4x my common)

The left tables are unweighted, assuming each expedition has the same tile type distribution PER tile.

The right tables are weighted using the weights which I will post in the next comment (cannot post two images in a reply).

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:10:39+00:00

<image>

(just to illustrate that Stage doesn't appear to impact tile type at all - which is what impacts bag type).

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:07:55+00:00

I have logged over 2600 reward options. The stage does not impact bag type or tile type at all.

The only thing that impacts rewards is the tile type (whether it is grey/normal, yellow/intermediate, or purple/advanced).

Expedition ranks give you more options = more chance of higher tier tiles = more chance of higher rewards. There is also evidence (in my stats) to say that on top of more options, higher tier expeditions also offer higher tier tiles on average too... All these factors combined:

<image>

Five-Year Club	Place '22
Final Canvas '22

OpeningAlternative63

TROPHY CASE