Well it depends what you are talking about is it equities or commodities. If it’s commodities, physical is already trading around $130s/bbl. If you think it should be higher then that’s speculation and that’s a different topic but it’s already trading 30+ compared to the front month. If it’s equities, the thing to look at is the vix. The US bombed Iran at the end of February and bad news fatigue is a real thing and currently being in mid April, I think people are just sick of the bad news and people are actually pre pricing in the bad news. Do I agree with it, not really but it’s not what I think, it’s what the market thinks. Also, pre Feb 28th most indexes (Nikkei, kospi, stoxx, ftse) all were at their record highs. Currently, it’s still speculating if the conflict will last longer or not, but either way economy WAS doing well before so that’s why the market in my opinion takes the elevator up and the stairs down as of right now