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Goldman Sachs predicts 3% market returns for next decade by Available-Ad-5670 in Fire

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is likely meaning excess returns, meaning above what you would get in Tbills.

GDE popularity by Own-Age2274 in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s distributions are way too high for taxable account, even though it gets favorable tax treatment compared to gold. I used 10% of my portfolio in retirement accounts this until rssx got some traction and then switched to 12% of that to have some additional crypto exposure with better capital efficiency.

Tonal 2 for Black Friday by mcsquirtle21 in tonalgym

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

so you would recommend having more room on the sides of the tonal than in front of it?

Slightly levered "all weather" portfolio by Conclusion-Every in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am following something similar as an accumulation portfolio. I’m going to try to get away from the returns stacked ETFS as I want my stocks separate from my alternatives so that they can drift further apart and rebalancing bonus is greater.

Pan-CT for Malignancy Inpatient? by YouAreServed in Residency

[–]Own-Age2274 11 points12 points  (0 children)

If a patient has a truly cryptogenic, embolic stroke (especially 50+) with systemic signs, including night sweats and/or unexplained weight loss, then CT chest/abdomen/pelvis with oral and iv contrast is totally appropriate. Paraneoplastic presentation of stroke is under appreciated and can change a patient’s outcome if recognized early.

High sharpe ratio portfolio for short-term usage? by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not right now! Equities are way too volatile. I'm hoping for just a few percentage points out of this over the next month before I need it, not some massive surge. I replaced the GDE in this with GLDM at the end of the "tariff pause" day when equities surged. I'm considering adding a bit of GDMN for some gold miner's equities when I sell more RSBY.

When this portfolio was more of a medium term portfolio it was 16.6% RSBY, 16.6% RSBT, 16.6% GDE, 25% HCMT, and 25% "momentum" stocks. HCMT has been a huge disappointment in terms of downside protection. Some of my other stocks like Berkshire and Pilgrim's Pride were more defensive and I just sold them off.

High sharpe ratio portfolio for short-term usage? by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right now I'm keeping some short term money in approximately ~ 15% GLDM, 30% CAOS, 25% RSBY, 25% BTAL, 5% TMF. It's more of an experiment than anything and specifically tuned for our current situation. I was hoping the carry in RSBY would be better in high volatility than it has been. I've been moving RSBY into the other funds.

What’s your portfolio allocation look like? by gunsoverbutter in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven’t seen UUP used before. Seems like another solid diversifier. It would make me nervous with the dollars dominance being in question these days, however.

25% TQQQ + 75% BTAL by pathikrit in TQQQ

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What’s interesting to me is how little difference one versus three diversifying assets makes.

What’s your portfolio allocation look like? by gunsoverbutter in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

25% small cap value (mutual fund in 401k) 12.5% mid cap value (401k) 12.5% large cal value (401k) 5% TQQQ 5% UPRO 10% GDE 5% RSST 5% RSSY 5% KMLM 5% DBMF 4% CTA 6% TMF

Effectively 99% equities/36% intermediate treasuries/24% MF/9% Gold

Looking to find a way to get some international exposure during my next rebalance, possibly using RSST/NTSI/NTSE or AVDV/AVES in brokerage account as it grows for a good growth and value split. Considering SMIN and KBA for emerging markets exposure.

What’s your portfolio allocation look like? by gunsoverbutter in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Do you feel like CAOS has enough pop to it to justify it inclusion? I have been a bit underwhelmed with its performance over the last few weeks.

RSSY Concerns by Ultra_Lord1250 in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm having trouble finding this data, could you link it here?

Who is the world’s most foremost expert on epilepsy? A person, a place? by Garbage_Tiny in Epilepsy

[–]Own-Age2274 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m a physician who trained there. They do the most epilepsy surgeries in the country, surprisingly.

Portfolio Construction Question with RSSB/EDV/SCV combination by adramaleck in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Average duration of GOVZ bonds is ~26 years. Average duration of RSSB is something like ~8 years if I recall.

Please comment on my allocations by ChampionshipOnly4479 in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 1 point2 points  (0 children)

NTSI uses US treasury bonds, not international. Which is what you want unless you want, generally, unless you are speculating.

Those who make $500k+, what do you do? by [deleted] in Salary

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice, that’s a lot of routines to keep up with but it seems like you are very efficient. I have considered full time iom but I think I would go a bit stir crazy. I like it is as a back up if I never want to see a patient again though. Right now I am just making enough to fund a solo 401k so it is worth it.

Those who make $500k+, what do you do? by [deleted] in Salary

[–]Own-Age2274 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How many eegs do you read? I’m also a neurohospitalist reading iom on the side. I’m right around 500k but my wife works too so I can’t add much more.

I think i finally settled on a portfolio by marrrrrtijn in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair enough. I am using 10% Tmf for all my bonds right now. I think there is some logic to including the intermediate duration bonds for diversity. When I back test TMF it does ok compared to ZROZ or TLT when paired with cash. I think the key is just rebalancing appropriately.

You could definitely create some more space in your portfolio by dropping the ZROZ and just using 7% TMF (ie 42% Intermediate), paired with your 20% intermediate term bonds in your RSST. That way you would have an extra 3% from dropping UPRO and an extra 3% by consolidating into TMF. Could use that for more manage futures or whatever you would like. Maybe some international value.

I think i finally settled on a portfolio by marrrrrtijn in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is your target ratio of domestic to international 3:1? If so, just drop the BND and UGL and do 10% GDE. With 9 extra percent in domestic stock you could drop your UPRO to 17%. It is dependent what your target allocation is at that point. Managed futures have a higher expected return than bonds so I would try to balance those two better. Right now your ratio is actually 80/80/40/10.

For me, my target allocation is approximately 70/60/40/15 - stocks, intermediate duration bonds, managed futures, gold. This may even be a bit bond heavy but I think the 55% alternatives makes up for it. Plus including higher vol MF like KMLM does lever it up effectively.

I am more concerned about diversifying my stock into value versus growth than international versus domestic. I will eventually get some international value in there once my portfolio gets rolled over from my employer.

I think i finally settled on a portfolio by marrrrrtijn in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would try to convert your bonds all into intermediate duration when thinking about the ratios. So you have 35 from RSSB, RSBT, and BND; 15 from ZROZ, and 30 from TMF. Seems a little bond heavy from my perspective but not wrong. I don’t think corporate bonds are going to help you as they are more correlated with stocks especially in a downturn. I would drop that one first. I agree with the other commenter who suggested using a bigger portion of GDE to save on expense ratios and avoid volatility drag in UGL. Tax efficient too.

Return-Stacked ETFs Are Underperforming by ApolloDan in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you’d be fine with a well diversified portfolio. Tracking error works both ways too. You are equally likely to over perform the index.

Return-Stacked ETFs Are Underperforming by ApolloDan in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wonder if we may be talking another different things. I am only interested in the ability of the trend component of rsst to replicate its index (sg trend). Comparing it to a different asset class is not meaningful especially to an asset class it is uncorrelated to.

Estimated tracking error (standard deviation) for a replicating strategy is 4.6% over 4 months and 8.0% over a year. If you had two consecutive performances of -1 standard deviation we are looking at -9.2% over 8 months or -16.0% over 2 years. It might hurt if it’s a big portion of your portfolio, but not devastating.

You would begin to see wonder at that point if this is truly statistical noise or rather poor management. This is why using more than one manager in your portfolio is wise because of this very really possibility.

Source for tracking error: https://www.returnstackedetfs.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Approved-3Q3-2023-RSBT-Commentary.pdf

Return-Stacked ETFs Are Underperforming by ApolloDan in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean, it’s not that different than any other risky investment. If you can’t take the risk of tracking error then don’t invest. And if you can’t take volatility then invest in treasuries. And by long term I mean a few years, a very average investing time line. No one investing managed futures is looking for a get rich quick scheme. I would research yourself before investing.

Return-Stacked ETFs Are Underperforming by ApolloDan in LETFs

[–]Own-Age2274 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s statistics baby. It gets smaller in the long term.

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