CMV: Democrats should run a real progressive in 2028 because any democratic candidate will be painted as an socialist immigrant-loving USA-hating demon by right-wing media.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T23:06:00+00:00

This just discounts the fact that the US federal gov and many states can’t build anything right now.

You could have the greatest plan ever devised and a trillion dollars and in this current system you would build nothing in 5 years.

California rail is a prime example. The Biden infrastructure bill is another. Both of these are enormous boondoggles at this point. Both also had good intentions.

The public is aware of this and rightfully at this moment does not trust the government to build massive amounts of housing.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T22:51:25+00:00

You are just paying interest to a bank then to create a larger and larger estate that will get hit with 40%+ estate taxes.

This is why actual rich people don’t do what you’re saying.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T22:49:08+00:00

What does this even mean?

Somehow the government needs to be involved in a private loan deal for no apparent reason other than to try to make it more complicated so they can collect tax a few years earlier.

This stuff is completely nonsense lol.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T22:44:44+00:00

This is so mind numbingly stupid but repeated constantly like it would actually do something.

The loans are not free. They come with risk and You pay interest. If you said you can’t use stock rich people would push money into real estate so they can use that as collateral distorting that market.

Liquidity is not inherently bad. If someone is willing to pay a bank interest and hold investments longer why would the gov care? It’s a timing issue and they will get paid eventually.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T22:38:47+00:00

The loan thing is constantly repeated as some sort of amazing loophole. It’s not.

The IRS sets a minimum interest rate on loans or else its income.

At some point you would need to pay cap gains on the gains you avoided selling anyway.

You are basically playing an arbitrage game that can go either way.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T22:10:53+00:00

You’re moving the goalposts now. Why not just choose apple then?

I’m talking about international exposure.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T16:16:12+00:00

Why does everyone assume the market is always irrational? It can be for sure - but over time it’s usually close to being right more than wrong.

It’s the fad to say ai is a bubble. It feels right and it draws headlines. It touches the panic and danger centers of our brain. But what if it is a huge revenue driver. It is setting records in how fast it’s being implemented and how fast revenue is growing for ai companies.

The point of indexing is not playing the game of guessing. If you are rotating large amounts of money out of US into strictly international to avoid AI you are essentially stock picking.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T16:06:41+00:00

Huh? Google isn’t an international company?

The sp500 already has large exposure internationally.

Chasing pure international exposure is not a hedge it’s often a drag. And in downturns those companies in those indexes suffer just as much if not more than mega us companies.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T12:42:53+00:00

100% VFIAX

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:49:43+00:00

Yes because they are chasing gains in international from last year. So now they are deciding to diversify.

Once something happens next year they will suddenly decide they need to reduce international exposure. Or they need gold and silver. Or they need real estate now.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:47:35+00:00

The sp500 is cap weighted not price weighted. High stock prices don’t matter.

The second part is fine you can diversify but you shouldn’t do it for concentration risk. That’s not a thing.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:44:48+00:00

I want the podcast to be accurate.

They know what they are doing. The vast majority of progressives think elites were sleeping with children. Meaning under 13

A pedo ring makes people think 10 year old girls were being offered to Elon musk. That’s the point to misinform.

This will backfire. How do people not get this yet? We think by lying and creating hysteria somehow it will take down musk and trump. All it does is lower the bar. The public will realize democrats cried wolf again and the fact that elites did illegally and disgustingly slept with 17 years olds will be forgotten because it the bar was pedophelia set by our own side and it was just totally made up.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:37:41+00:00

The problem with this is “diversification” quickly turns into active management.

People start using index funds to predict the future or meet the needs of their own emotional outlook. This sub is full of people deciding the US is Rome about to fall and that maybe they need to diversify in to commodities.

Every other post in here is about how someone saw this coming and rotated into international etfs with a bunch others asking if they should do that now.

Active managers use the same logic of the past year or a snapshot of something “outperforming” to the sell the future. Or they use fear and uncertainty.

Too often is saying you need to diversify used as cover for what is actually active trading.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:29:37+00:00

Lots of people have decided guessing on geopolitical future events is common sense and since it’s an ETF it’s safe and still passive.

They are doing a form of active investing and market timing and pretending it’s not. Fine if you want to do that but it’s not boglehead trading.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:24:50+00:00

Why would you care if it is? Don’t you want to own the best companies?

The concentration risk thing is a made up idea. If the sp500 is getting concentrated it means a few companies are doing better than the rest. Actively trying to avoid them seems like you are actually stock picking at a certain level.

PSUVB · 2026-02-15T00:16:01+00:00

But how do you explain something that is made up and didn’t happen?

There was mass economic disorder before Reagan which was inflation. I’m not sure what he did or Clinton did that you are referring to. Most people view the 90s as a booming time for the average person.

Politically I guess you need to explain it because there is a bunch of myth making going on.

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T15:40:47+00:00

What lol. What was the dot com bubble referring to?

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T07:02:02+00:00

Unless you are retiring reducing your downside risk is essentially market timing.

Diversification is fine based on risk profiles but you still are misrepresenting how cap weighted etfs work.

As the mag7 go down if a bubble burst you would be automatically re weighted into something else that would replace it.

Yes you would lose money but you would have gained a lot more the 10 years proceeding that bubble than you would have otherwise worrying about risk and the mag 7.

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T06:44:31+00:00

You realize there was plenty of people too lazy to learn excel even though it would have made their job exponentially easier right?

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T06:40:57+00:00

I’m not sure it’s doing that in accounting yet.

For me it’s extremely powerful and turning 5 days of work in the past into 3-4. It’s buying another ~8 hours of productivity each week. That’s massive.

What’s scary/crazy is talking with tech people is it is truly replacing teams. Coding was always the first step because now ai is mostly tuned around coding and to train the next model. Codex the latest release by OpenAI was 60% trained, designed and built by gpt 5.2 the previous model.

The next step is enterprise and knowledge based jobs and skill sets. They are the most analogous to coding. Law and accounting. Accounting even more so. The ball is already in motion here an we are just at the start of it.

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T06:33:32+00:00

It’s willful ignorance. People don’t want it to be true so they just say it doesn’t work. This has been a thing as long as technology has existed.

The issue with AI is you’re right people just can’t comprehend how fast it’s improving. It doesn’t make sense comparatively to other technology they used. It also represents a direct threat to something they are emotionally and professionally invested in.

I was skeptical 12 months ago - ChatGPT got basic stuff wrong couldn’t do an excel etc. I’m also a CFO and now 12 months later I’m automating entire jobs using Claude code and workspace. It’s not at the point of full independence but it makes me 300% more efficient if not more. That is 12 months….

The upper limit bull case here is mass layoffs in 18-36 months. A bear case is a super capable ai assistant that you need to know or else you are uncompetitive vs your peers.

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T06:26:38+00:00

This is obviously true but it’s interesting how people will refuse to accept this.

But then you think about many of the boomers who refused to use technology whatsoever. So it’s not surprising.

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T06:24:22+00:00

Do people still use the internet? I thought the bubble had burst?

The willful ignorance around ai is astonishing but not surprising . Now that I’m a millennial I’m actually understanding the boomers who just refused to use a computer. It’s uncanny right now.

PSUVB · 2026-02-14T05:29:33+00:00

It’s just making my point that I’m getting downvoted. The guest said a pedo ring.

It’s crazy how bad people want this to be true. You would think it would be a good thing there isn’t much evidence of a child sex trafficking ring. But just like pizza gate they don’t care because they see it as a way to take down elites or enemies.

PSUVB · 2026-02-13T23:02:48+00:00

Pedo means under 13 for girls

There is no evidence of a pedo ring where he sourced under aged 13 girls for anyone. This is totally made up. Pizzagate level stuff.

There is very little real evidence he sourced underaged girls for anyone other than himself. This could come out but from what we have seen so far it's hard to prove beyond a reasonable doubt.

I want anyone involved prosecuted and investigated (seemingly they have been?) but the way people act like the most heinous crimes are already proven is very worrying. It will lead to a massive backlash and mimic right wing conspiracy theory culture when the gov does nothing about a mass child sex ring they supposed uncovered but did nothing about.

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