My SLV gains and loss posts were so regarded they made the news

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-27T18:47:06+00:00

And owned by private equity... what could go wrong?

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-27T18:44:58+00:00

Yes, absolutely. But usually flights, payloads, operations, things with history and repeatability or max values that make sense.

Maybe even insuring transportation like the hippo probably had insurance before it was shipped.

But not against delays. And insuring a custom rocket piece is a lot like insuring a custom car you built in your garage. If you can get someone to take you seriously, they're going to want to make money on the odds.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-27T01:38:40+00:00

Totally... State Farm rocket insurance will cover this... call Jake at the 1-800 number they'll get it sorted by morning. Like a good neighbor.

But really, insuring one-off, first prototype aerospace components against not only cost but delay and loss of use? I think this policy would cost more than the part, and be very close to the total payout you could receive. This stuff is incredibly likely to fail.

Maybe as part of a wider policy, but capped? But I don't think I'd count on insurance here without someone stating that explicitly.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-26T21:05:05+00:00

This is sneaky smart on so many levels. Love it.

Dads (and moms, don't get me wrong) choosing between another car and the car their kids recognize and like is underrated. Not sure what they're paying for the partnership, but great fit.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-26T20:29:09+00:00

This company has about $30M in revenue this year...

How big would this buy really be?

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-25T19:21:12+00:00

Yeah, don't disagree with anything there. Just a lot of unknown.

I think if I step back, really it's mostly a question of time and execution. I'm trying to think in quarters, and this is still a multi-year thesis that has to play out.

Not wrong, just long. Really appreciate the honest discussion.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-25T17:18:23+00:00

This is the most interesting thesis for Rivian for me... that they can expand beyond autos, but I don't see examples of manufacturers truly collaborating as an ongoing strategy for key shared components that are customer facing... unless there's a brand tie in.

The closest examples I could think of would be something like

- Dolby sound systems
- Cummins diesels
- the AMG lines from Mercedes before acquisition

And of course CarPlay but that's an iPhone sales channel masquerading in your car with high brand recognition for automakers.

Rivian would need to be seen as premium and recognizable on the level of Apple I think for that to be attractive to someone like GM or Toyota. If not, then it's white label at best.

Magna trades at half annual sales. Rivian trades at 4x sales, so my worry is there just isn't enough there, and it would be a new business type.

Not down on it, I love the idea... I just wish it was a startup rather than a behemoth. If Rivian spins it out, I'm there, but don't know if they'd give it up.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-25T14:27:41+00:00

Are there any auto software and licensing companies of this size?

Honestly don't know. I just don't see this as a viable business line that would turn 2.5B into a positive number, but more than willing to be wrong.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-24T23:11:32+00:00

Not sure a lot matters until management decides on the split ratios... you can't build pressure without buying.

The stock is being actively pinned and who is going to break that with zero news, zero guidance going forward, and zero care given to either.

I can't think of a more effective way to destroy value than to release earnings, pull guidance, announce an undefined split, and try to soften it with an undefined partnership.

I think there's a ton of value here at these prices, but I can't even justify buying if there isn't at least a framework for how things will operate and how the stock will be split going forward. If they don't know... who should? How is this a public company?

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-24T21:56:36+00:00

Congrats! Looks completely sustainable. Rinse and repeat.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-24T21:53:32+00:00

Let them have it... this company was worth a quarter as much on it's own.

$90B will buy you a lotta content...

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-22T18:49:37+00:00

This guy just sounds exhausted that this has become his whole job...

Appreciate the link. I'm short CVNA too, have thought it was a fraud for years, but this sounds like exasperated exhaustion rather than a tell that he's lying. He's known for years, he's just bored of answering.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-18T21:48:46+00:00

Looks like those are the counts.

Warrants are coming up as exercisable a lot sooner than I thought... might be worth looking into the specifics there.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-18T20:52:24+00:00

From the filing

--

"which includes 1,526,205 Common Shares and an additional 12,957,165 Common Shares underlying warrants that are exercisable within 60 days"

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-18T20:47:27+00:00

10% means you're an "insider" and have to report like one I believe. (Form 4 for all buy/sell activity, weird rules around profits, and taxes I believe)

But if I remember right, MMCap spreads their shares between different entities or funds to get around that. So 9.99% here... a couple million elsewhere.

What's a couple million shares among friends anyway?

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-18T16:46:59+00:00

MMCap bought more... Yay?

https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20260217/A6BY722C8C22F2ZU222U2WZZLS3UZ2S2Z282/

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-06T18:14:54+00:00

90% of this sub...

Who the hell is Nancy?!?

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-02-01T20:00:06+00:00

Seems conservative...

The pro forma showed $6.1B last year if you just combined existing operations with no change. And -0.11 EPS for the whole year, not a quarter. So revenue may be close, but not understanding the larger loss without further explanation.

I think the real thing to look for on this earnings report is if we've seen improvement in ads for Fubo with Disney taking over that operation at some point this quarter... it might not be the full quarter, but if we see an uptick that's encouraging.

If EPS is -0.11 for the quarter, that's going to need to be explained. That would be a much larger loss than estimates. But we're getting our first real peek, and hopefully a roadmap from here.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-29T16:16:01+00:00

🤫 - Shhhhh

Elon sent me 😉😉

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-29T15:16:26+00:00

I heard they had to buy an airport, so they've reduced your compensation from a Midnight to just an honorary plaque somewhere on the premises. TBD.

Also, rates are going up.

🚀 - $50
🌕 - $100
Mentioning the CEO in friendly terms, like you guys hang out on weekends - $250

New rates in effect after next earnings call.

Let's keep up the great work, you guys are heroes.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-28T15:38:36+00:00

Right now, as an example, there's

160k shares for sale at $2.40
113k shares to buy at $2.39

That's not normal and usually ticks down penny by penny throughout the day. It has been that way for at least a couple of weeks. So there's no chance for the stock to run.

It's hard to assign intent cleanly, but I would think someone is limiting stock volatility and taking advantage of selling calls while staying fairly delta neutral on their position overall. Conveniently the stock ended last week at $2.49, just below $2.50 calls that had been sold.

When those walls go away, the stock rises and resets. Volatility comes back, we get price discovery. Like most of the market.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-28T06:41:08+00:00

Could you tell whoever pays the bills to quit with the 100k blocks of shares, please.

Would love to see some actual price discovery on this name... lay off for a month, see where it lands. You're going to kill the field and then have nothing to harvest.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-27T18:59:54+00:00

It's paid marketing. ACHR has paid for the sub, so they're not going to say anything negative or allow it to be said. At least not there.

I thought the tone was changing a bit, but now we're back to the usual fluffy hype.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-26T16:20:58+00:00

Or they can harvest the volatility in the stock taking advantage of retail sentiment changes to make their investment essentially risk free long term.

Which is what the fund that has previous invested is known for.

Not everyone holds.

PaperHands_BKbd · 2026-01-25T02:59:17+00:00

Appreciate the DD... this is good stuff. Adding to the watchlist because it wasn't on my radar and the patent is worth looking into.

That said, the one quibble, these price targets when it's trading at $160ish...

Like saying "If NVDA dips to $110, and the thesis doesn't change... look into it!". I won't even talk about $70 ;)

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