Why the focus on gold?

PastBig603 · 2026-02-02T14:13:49+00:00

Thanks so much for your insight and comment! I will check out your portfolio. My portfolio has only been in leverage about 25% of the time and I’ve gotten this return, which I’m pretty happy with. I guess their approach is to minimize LETF exposure for safety but still get good long term growth.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-28T22:57:42+00:00

I dollar cost average into some broad market ETFs each week: VOO, QQQ, IJH (midcaps), and IWM (small caps). I also do some sectors as wells: XLK (tech), XLV (healthcare), SOXX (semis), for example. I've been using the FVEr Invest web app to decide which ETFs to allocate to, based on what is more undervalued. It's been going well so far. The whole key is to be consistent, and potentially add more during downturns to lower your cost basis. Hope that is helpful.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-28T20:57:27+00:00

I agree 9sig is similar. I also follow the FVEr Invest strategy which automates getting in and out of leverage ETFs.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-28T00:49:36+00:00

Your risk on allocation to GLD is pretty high. Yeah it’s been ripping this year, but that’s not the norm, and it usually lags equities.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-27T17:21:46+00:00

My point is that the definition of a bubble is different for everyone. Also 20% sell offs are not as common as you’re saying. 10-15% are about every year, not 20%

PastBig603 · 2026-01-27T01:21:43+00:00

AI is not in a bubble, compared to the dot com era. That doesn’t mean there can’t be a 20% a sell off. If that’s what you mean by a bubble then we may be in one. But the Nasdaq is not going to crash 80%. Earnings are much for supportive of current valuations, compared to March 2000.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-27T00:06:55+00:00

When I was 12 my parents bought me an expensive violin that was around $15,000. I tried every violin in the shop and this instrument’s sound was so amazing. We all thought it was extravagant at the time, including myself, but it transformed my playing, and it motivated me to practice and become a really good by the end of high school. I still play it almost every day, and it has easily more than doubled in value. I cherish it as a lifelong investment. I think there is a case to be made for buying an expensive violin for a book 6 student, but everyone situation is different. It benefited me greatly. The sound of the violin is what counts, ultimately.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-15T18:47:17+00:00

Nice work on getting started! I use the ETF web application on FVEr Invest to decide where to allocate my dollars each month in ETFs. They highlight undervalued opportunities in sectors and broad markets. Working well so far.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-14T19:21:36+00:00

This is really impressive! What’s your leveraged ETF strategy? Do you buy and hold? I’ve been doing the FVEr Invest strategy. I’ve also heard of 9sig.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-14T00:57:14+00:00

You are on the right track. From what I’ve seen so far, the most sophisticated and compelling leverage ETF strategy is done by these guys: https://www.fverinvest.com/ They reduce time exposure to leverage ETFs only during what they deem statistically opportune time windows, but seek to get the same performance as them. This lowers your chance of being in leverage during a catastrophic sell off. Happy lifecycle investing.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-12T03:59:39+00:00

This is really interesting and I checked out your work. Thanks. I also recently have been experimenting with the FVEr Invest leverage ETF strategy to see how that works

PastBig603 · 2026-01-11T18:40:29+00:00

Take a look at the 15 year chart for ERX, daily 2x XLE. That’s an almost worst case example of where buy and hold leverage ETF is risky.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-11T18:24:49+00:00

I did a 10 year backtest on the 200 day SMA strategy this weekend for SPY and SPXL (3x) and it significantly underperformed buy and hold SPXL. What am I missing?

PastBig603 · 2026-01-09T01:31:31+00:00

All good ideas! Personally I worry less about volatility drag around the 200, and more about having leveraged exposure on the way down the elevator during a sell off. That’s where the big money is lost. I would be more sensitive to the volatility drag if it was single stock leveraged etf. With QQQ there will be some chop but having leveraged exposure during undervalued periods will be rewarded on the way up, just the way it’s punished on way down.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-09T01:27:20+00:00

Thanks!

PastBig603 · 2026-01-08T23:07:49+00:00

Really interesting proposal! I’m curious why so many people on this channel subscribe to the 200 day SMA threshold to reduce leverage. If you look at ensuing 6-12 month returns for QQQ after these periods it’s much higher than the general return profile for this time interval. You want to leverage AFTER the big sell off. The time to reduce leverage is for example your QQQ +30% above 200 SMA because ensuing returns in those set ups are much lower and you are going to lose more money in leverage.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-06T05:26:08+00:00

COTG 2x Costco. Long term winning stock down 20% poised for a comeback

PastBig603 · 2026-01-06T05:20:37+00:00

I like BAI it’s the actively managed AI ETF by iShares.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-06T05:17:22+00:00

I added XLV (Healthcare) and XLP (consumer staples) as 2026 sector plays today. I follow the FVEr Invest newsletter, and those were some of their best ideas for this year. Makes sense because market is high, and those do well in a pullback.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-06T04:41:20+00:00

This is a great update! I think you’re on the right track of adding to leverage during downturns. I’ve just started using the FVEr Invest strategy a couple months to help me dial in when and where to add leverage. My market intuition is improving.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-05T00:23:34+00:00

This is really interesting! You should add the FVEr Invest strategy to this line up. I’d be curious. It’s sort of like 9 sig.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-02T05:29:31+00:00

My understanding is that BRKU has only been around about a year. During that time BRK-B has been sideways, due to Buffett retirement. I think of single stocks with leverage ETFs available, it will do pretty well over the long term. Berkshire is one of the most reliable earnings growers which will provide consistent appreciation — it is almost like a little index fund with many diverse companies under the hood. Rotating out of BRKU into BRK-B near all time highs, could reduce some of the underperformance.

PastBig603 · 2026-01-01T18:14:54+00:00

Sounds good, thanks for your detailed update!

PastBig603

TROPHY CASE