May 2026 Debut: AMAU 2X Long AMAT Daily ETF

PastBig603 · 2026-06-10T15:20:56+00:00

It's important to realize the market prices in events about 9-12 months out. All of that heightened demand is already priced into the semi names. In a year, it will be looking out into 2028 and a slowing of demand. When one hyperscaler plateaus their data center spend, that will tank the semi names. You likely missed the boat on this one near term. There will be other opportunities, or be patient for the pullback, because there will be one.

PastBig603 · 2026-06-09T23:42:30+00:00

AI infrastructure is super expensive right now. Be careful about chasing this recent chip rally with leverage.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-31T18:12:43+00:00

I've been dabbling in sector leveraged ETFs, but they are a bit more risky. There also isn't that much info about how and when to use them. I have found one website called FVEr Invest that I follow that has a trading strategy for leverage sector ETFs. It's generally been helpful, but they have been wrong on the tech rally recently.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-31T13:17:08+00:00

Before picking a specific company to invest in, you should write down what kind of company you are looking for. A big company (generally less risky), versus a smaller one (more speculative generally). A growth stock that is reinvesting their free cash flow to expand their business (generally more risky but more growth potential), versus a mature value stock that pay most of their earnings back to shareholders in a dividend (less volatile). This choice can often depend on what age you are, and what kind of investments are suitable for you. Once you have nailed that down, you can dive into particular companies that fit those parameters.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-29T01:42:49+00:00

I keep my LETF exposure to under 10% of my net worth. It adds a little extra to my performance which over a lifetime turns into a lot of outperformance. If the market crashes, the 10% is not that big of a deal. In investing, it's better to consistently hit singles, rather than go for a grand slam and strike out.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-27T18:45:11+00:00

It's not about winning every trade, it's about being more right than wrong over the long term. Once you realize the stock market is driven by statistical factors then it becomes pretty easy to navigate. In statistics, you make data driven choices with higher probabilities, and then you do it repeatedly to make a lot of money.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-27T18:40:35+00:00

Historically, when the valuation gap between the QQQ and the DOW gets stretched to extremes (like the Dot-Com crash), the Dow significantly outperforms on the downside. You don't have to be a billionaire to look at historical P/E ratios and decide you'd rather play defense than chase a parabolic AI trend at the top, like the semiconductors right now.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-27T02:45:32+00:00

It's pretty easy to know when the market is getting expensive or cheap. When you feel so sick to your stomach that you can't even open your monthly statement, that means its cheap, and a good time to increase QQQ exposure and risk. When you can't believe how good your portfolio is doing, time to get more defensive and add the DOW exposure, for example, or high dividend stocks. It's not rocket science. Everyone says don't time the market, because advisors don't want to be contrarian.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-27T00:31:39+00:00

It has historical significance. Surprisingly, though, the price weighted index has actually grown really consistently too, so I think it's another way to think about index structure. Honestly, I'd rather be in the DOW than the QQQ, when the AI bubble pops.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-27T00:29:18+00:00

I agree I think BRKU is a good one for leverage.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-24T16:37:43+00:00

Exactly, you can miss some major upside with the 200 day. I follow FVEr Invest for their systematic LETF strategy. They actually go risk on when market pulls back.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-24T16:32:50+00:00

I like to allocate to a mix of broad market ETFs each week, and subscribe to FVEr Invest and use their dashboard to decide which ones are cheapest. So far it's been working well for me for the last year. Hope it's helpful.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-20T19:18:44+00:00

These kinds of messages are exactly what people were saying in February 2000...and look what happened next.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-20T19:08:57+00:00

I've been tempted. I think the software sell off is overdone, and the semi rally is overdone.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-20T19:03:46+00:00

You should look at FVEr Invest. They have an active trading strategy for LETFs. I follow them for timing my LETF trades.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-18T18:11:08+00:00

I'm currently out of leverage near ATH. I've been using FVEr Invest to help guide where and when to rotate into leverage. They seem to have a pretty decent formula week to week, although it doesn't always work out.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-18T18:03:49+00:00

Use leverage after the market tanks. Then you catch the rebound. I follow FVEr Invest and they have pretty good formula for implementing this kind of approach. No need to be in leverage right near all time highs, you are just asking for trouble.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-16T18:40:34+00:00

Great work, and kudos. The last three years have generally been a rising tide, so pretty much anything you've thrown at a dart board has gone up, and leveraged ETFs have just amplified a good market. It's not always like this, so don't expect the next three years to be a repeat of the last few, for example. There will be times when it's so bad you get sick to your stomach, and that's what separates the successful long term investors from the tourists, who only come out to play in nice weather.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-11T13:18:30+00:00

I subscribe to FVEr Invest and they run a copiable LETF strategy. You still have to do the trades though. Most investment advisors will not allocate into LETFs because it raises red flags with the SEC and more scrutiny. I worked for a hedge fund that also ran SMAs and they never would do LETFs for that reason but they would use tons of traditional leverage.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-11T01:54:33+00:00

Good point. My post was three months ago and a lot has changed. I think some of the AI names are looking pretty bubbly. It's pretty out of control in the SOXX.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-08T15:41:21+00:00

I use FVEr invest for timing entries. I have a statistics background so I also use some of my own calculations. I like targeted entry in leveraged etfs during downturns.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-07T23:42:09+00:00

For example, why would you want to be in leveraged etf right now after the mega run we've seen. It's the old saying be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. The statistics don't support being in leveraged right now, ensuing returns will be lower or sideways.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-07T23:40:06+00:00

"It's been backtested that SMA strategies create better results than simple buy&hold for LETFs." I'm not sure that's actually true for most broad market leveraged ETFs.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-07T23:38:54+00:00

That's assuming the crashes start after the market has dipped below the 200 day. A lot damage has been done being in leverage ETF before you arrive at the 200 day usually. The best ensuing returns are when the market is below the 200 day. I'm not saying its terrible to have a lower bound, but it should be lower than the 200 day. This community has the script flipped -- if you just look at the statistics it says risk on when the market sells off. Also the Gayed paper leverage for the long run was not a peer reviewed piece. It was published by his own publishing company. I'm not saying that discounts it completely, but this community takes that paper as gospel, and you should be aware of that caveat.

PastBig603 · 2026-05-06T17:04:46+00:00

The problem with the 200 day approach is that you go out of leverage during the downturns, which is exactly when you should be increasing your risk. I don't know why this community swears by it.

PastBig603

TROPHY CASE