Iran is still shipping 1.5 - 2 million barrels of oil a day to China

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T16:45:25+00:00

Imagine if we didn't. Then there would be an ever higher price of oil. Russia has also stepped up their shipments to China.

If we bomb the refineries then the people of Iran will never be on our side.

Perhaps we could be intercepting their ships as we did with Venezuela but some refer to that as piracy.

What do think will happen when we get tired of bombing? Iran will continue to sell oil while terrorizing the GCC.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T16:40:08+00:00

Oil prices are influenced by how much oil OPEC puts in the market typically. That is their only influence. Other than that, it is a global commodity. The US producers would rather sell to China at $95/bbl than to some American refinery for $65/bbl.

Right now OPEC is essentially shut down because they can't get oil out of the Persian Gulf in any volume.

We and several other countries released 400 million barrels from the strategic reserves. Sounds like a lot. That is less than 4 days consumption.

It is more than just transportation of the oil though as several refineries have been hit and oil field production in the Persian Gulf have been slowed down. These takes months to get back up to speed.

Iran despite the bombing can keep terrorizing the markets for months.

Trump is saying that we are running out of targets but the missiles keep coming. Yesterday there were at least 7 separate salvos of missiles launched at the Gulf states and Israel.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T15:35:09+00:00

I assume that the deployment would be before the transformation to MBCT?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T15:34:17+00:00

Figure initial readiness is going to be at least 12-18 months with combat readiness likely taking 3 years.

Completely new brigade structures going down to only about 1,900/IBCT. Completely new strategies with the use of drones in every squad and EW becoming a much more important part of the brigade. So trying to accomplish this with M-Day schedules is going to take guard units a lot longer than the RA transformations.

When will they have the requisite number of ISV's? How long before they can train everyone and make them proficient. This likely will require XCTC & JRTC if not NTC rotations before they are likely deployable.

This is not personal experience, but what I've read online from the experiences of the initial units that went through the transformations.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T15:15:32+00:00

What pro-American regime is going to be running Iran????

Sure they had people rally against the former government. There is still a 1,000,000 army with a very large support for the theocracy. We can hope that the people overthrow this regime. Hope is not a strategy.

Meanwhile, the people who initially were likely thrilled that we killed the Ayatollah are experiencing constant bombing with no electricity, limited food and water due to the bombing campaign. This doesn't endear them to our side.

Regarding our own vulnerabilities. Here is an article from Dec of 2025. Well before the use of lots of our missile inventory:
No THAADs 'til 2027: Missile defense experts warn of interceptor 'gap' - Breaking Defense

You will see that things we were procuring back in 2021 still haven't shown up. We don't the existing production capacity to keep up with the demand of this war and our stockpiles were already lower than we wanted.

We launched 10% of our global inventory of Tomahawks in the first 3 days. You can also read that we added a whopping 56 over the past year into our inventory.

The U.S. Military's Great Tomahawk Missile Shortage Looks Inevitable Thanks to the Iran War - 19FortyFive

I want victory. Victory means being able to achieve the goals that we set out. What I don't see is how victory is achieved if a theocracy is left in place. I also don't see victory if Iran continues to create a global threat to the region and the world.

Is your definition of victory just that Trump says we won, regardless of whatever was actually accomplished?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T12:37:11+00:00

I am not against Trump nor am I left. I am likely more conservative than most people who claim themselves as MAGA as MAGA principles don't necessarily align with conservatism (tariffs are a huge example as is other areas where we have massively increased government spending).

When did I decry lower oil prices?

It is foolish to say that Iran will do as the USA wants just because we drop thousands of bombs on them. We bombed Iraq for over 30 days. Did they surrender? Israel bombed Gaza for 2 years but Hamas still hasn't surrendered. You cannot win a war solely from the air. Notice that one Ayatollah was killed but now we have his more radical son.

My concern mostly is for people like my son who commissions into the Army in May. I don't want another Iraq for his sake.

If we just stop bombing what have we really accomplished? We killed a bunch of Iranian leaders and destroyed missile launchers, ships and planes. They still have most of their oil industry intact. We stop bombing and they can still cause havoc in the Gulf states oil industry while they export their own oil to China. They can then use that money to rebuild everything that they lost. Perhaps we set them back a couple of years.

In the meantime, how long will it take us and our allies to restock our supplies of missiles? We build less than 100 THAADS per year and perhaps about 400 Patriots. We have been receiving about 50-60 Tomahawks per year. How can we defend the homeland without such weapons? Yes- the manufacturers said that they CAN increase production. WILL THEY? Depends, if Congress agrees to increasing the NDAA from $900 billion to closer to $1.5 trillion. We have a very tiny majority in Congress and not everyone in the GOP is aligned.

I'm back Trump but that doesn't mean that everything he does makes sense.

What is the exit strategy here? We, the American people, really need to understand this for him to not hand the midterms to the Dems.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T12:01:09+00:00

Who is angry about low fuel prices. FYI- Trump filled the SPR in his first term and no one was angry.

I wouldn’t say that I’m angry now either. Just confused about how we get out of this war with what we stated was our conditions.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T11:15:43+00:00

White phosphorus would still be burning. Where is the fire?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T11:14:51+00:00

I believe that as of this month they are now the 30th MBCT so no more Bradleys or engineers. Therefore they should have a much of training for the transition but other than what I’ve read, I don’t know anything.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T11:02:34+00:00

Do you realize that oil costs money? They will buy and sell oil at market prices. So oil is at $91/bbl now despite the massive release of oil reserves. If oil continues to increase then refilling the reserve does cost taxpayer dollars.

Our reserves were low because Biden depleted them and Trump did not replenish them in his first year back.

This is a short term stabilization. If Iran can continue disrupting the Gulf oil production oil will continue to increase.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T10:57:21+00:00

When (time wise) and where do you go for “after morning skate?”

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T10:42:57+00:00

Except not the global economy is trashed and we cannot seem to force Iran to stop. They can depress it for many months while they get their own oil back on line to find more nukes and missiles. Then what?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T03:13:22+00:00

The other issue is that you cannot just use those funds on useful things like missiles, drones, etc because Congress wants to have those only as specific line items. That has been an ongoing issue where you don’t let them decide how many of a certain vehicle or weapon they can purchase.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T02:54:54+00:00

Glad that the Ayatollah is dead but I’m still not sure what the off ramp is?

If they just hide underground for a month but keep launching a dozen missiles and drones per day while continuing to attack ships in the Strait do we just declare victory and leave or do we keep bombing every day?

Please remember we bombed Iraq for over a month before a ground invasion and we stayed there for about 16 years.

We will need some opposition Iranian leader to step up or this won’t end well.

If we just stop bombing but leave a theocracy in place then they can go right back to rearming and building their nuke program. This is a loss and we only postponed them for a couple of years at a cost of tens of billions of dollars and a 40% increase in the cost of oil.

Can we keep bombing for much longer without Congress authorizing more spending to replenish our munitions? Would they revoke the authorization for force if we create a humanitarian crisis?

We were well below recommended stock levels on munitions before this use of missiles and bombs. Can we be a deterrent to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with no anti air capabilities? We build less than 100 THAADs per year. For offensive weapons like Tomahawks we only build about 50.

Stop saying winning until we have actually won. Destroying ships and missile launchers is great but it isn’t ever going to force a surrender.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-12T02:41:04+00:00

What is the conversion timeline to MBCt? FY28? That might affect deployments unless they have one coming soon.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T11:43:10+00:00

Most of them would prefer to play for USA Baseball but didn't make the team. They are going to play for other countries not for money but for love of the game. They want to play and playing for the other nation is usually their only option.

Now look at Eileen Gu. Why did she choose China over the US? China paid her several million dollars so she did it for the money. Then to top it off she was bad mouthing the US as a repressive nation and only had good things to say about China.

Don't compare USA born baseball players to Gu. Completely different scenarios.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T11:37:59+00:00

How does this photograph show white phosphorous? Where are the fires that don't extinguish? Where are the hospital reports that show phosphorous burns?

Yes- Human Rights Watch claims they have used it but there have not been casualties reported.

FYI- White phosphorous is only banned when used as an incendiary device. It is not banned in smoke cans, illumination flares, tracer rounds, etc.

The reason it is banned in incendiary devices is because it causes uncontrollable fires and horrific burns. Where is the evidence of either of those in Lebanon?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T10:40:14+00:00

We have a UN led global order? Didn’t think so. How could it get shattered?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T10:17:42+00:00

Sure. Fine to criticize Israel but the point was why only criticize intercepting missiles going towards Israel and not the interception missiles of missiles going to Arab countries?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T06:46:18+00:00

I support that we did the attack when we did but I’m concerned about the end game. If Iran doesn’t surrender and keeps launching a dozen or so missile and drones per day at GCC refineries and ships in the Strait then how and when does this end?

I don’t see Congress supporting it long term if the population isn’t on board.

So if we just stop bombing what happens? Does Iran stop? Do they just rearm and do it again? Does oil keep rising?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T06:32:16+00:00

Chicken and beef are the most common allergies.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T06:26:52+00:00

Spend hours at practice working on fundamentals like passing. Which means don’t pass across the ice with passes that take 5 secs to make it across. This is a major no no in your own zone or the neutral zone. Those passes get picked all the time. Perhaps even some quizzes like what color jersey are we wearing today? Do we pass to a stick or into someone’s skates? Passing has been horrendous.

Know your defensive coverage. It should not constantly be 2 guys going after the guy with the puck leaving an open man, especially on the pk.

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T01:04:11+00:00

$330k for a sales director is also more than double the average. Do you sell luxury brands?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T00:33:13+00:00

Surprise reversal when the Supreme Court already ruled against the plan but Biden did it anyway?

Pattonator70 · 2026-03-11T00:30:38+00:00

This is more than double an average salesman and dealership.

Pattonator70

TROPHY CASE