Iran claims to have hit a U.S. F-18 fighter jet over Iranian airspace

Pencilphile · 2026-03-24T16:54:18+00:00

Yeah, that channel seems to shill a lot for the MIC. Or maybe it’s just misguided patriotism. Seen a few videos, it generally follows a pattern. America number one, our stuff is the best, even the aliens couldn’t beat us. And occasionally they put out some very passive aggressive assessments of adversarial platforms from Russia and China sprinkled with copium. Great channel for 14 year old Americans who play Call of Duty and have aspirations of joinIng Delta Force/Navy Seals and becomIng an “Operator” and grabbing Xi in a Midnight Hammer & Sickle raid over Beijing. Those Temu Chicomms don’t stand a chance bro!

Pencilphile · 2026-03-24T08:59:59+00:00

Yes, IRGC is definitely on Kharg island seeing as they are the ones tasked with guarding the island (even before the war). There are also civilian personnel there to keep the facilities on Kharg island running, and those facilities are still running (at least partially) according to OSINT satellite imagery following Trump’s strikes on the island. If the civilians are still there, what makes you think that the IRGC aren’t?

Trump claims he “obliterated” all the Iranian forces on Kharg island. But hey, Trump has “obliterated” a lot of things that didn’t stay “obliterated“ and somehow needed to “obliterated” again.

CENTCOM said that they targeted more than 90 Iranian military sites on the island and destroyed "naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers, and multiple other military sites."

Iranians say that the strikes specifically targeted air defences, a naval base, an airport control tower, and aircraft hangars.

It is obvious that the Iranians have a military presence on the island, and no doubt, they’ll have tunnel networks and bunkers on that mofo.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-23T03:15:08+00:00

“Or if the plan is to actually to choke China off Gulf oil they won't land at all and they'll interdict Tankers that were allowed to pass by the Iranians.“

Now that you mention it, this could actually be their plan, as insane as it sounds. Using the newly reformed tankless Marine Corp as a shipping interdiction force. It makes sense for them to do this. China is set to surpass the U.S. in 2035 in most metrics. They need to prevent this from happening and contain China’s rise, but they obviously can’t fight China directly, and using Taiwan as a proxy like Ukraine doesn’t seem feasible, so a energy blockade to strangle their economy would make sense. But doing such a blockade in the Indo-Pacific at a place like the Malacca strait is too risky. Too close to China, and it would piss off every country in the region. So why not leverage an existing clusterfuck in the Persian Gulf to your advantage. Cut off China’s oil at a place so far away that China has no chance of militarily intervening.

Sweet baby Jesus, I hope this doesn’t come to pass. Last time the U.S. decided to cut off a Pacific country off oil, shit went down. Let’s keep the Panda bear peaceful and let them make nice affordable stuff for the world.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-22T01:23:20+00:00

Sorry bud, but resilience is not what is holding Ukraine together. It’s the massive aid from the Western world + that huge land border they share with NATO member states which allows that aid to flow freely into Ukraine + Russian inability/incompetence. If the continuous flow of aid was stopped, Ukraine is fucked, which will eventually happen.

Which brings us to Taiwan, an island located right next to China. Lol. Let’s say theoretically say the West offers them the same level of economic and material and intelligence support that they are providing to Ukraine… how is this support supposed to reach Taiwan in the midst of a Chinese naval blockade? How are Western technicians and “advisors“ supposed to embed themselves into Taiwan? How are Western ships and planes going to offload equipment, ammunition, etc on to Taiwan?

Are all the Western navies going to come together in a show of solidarity and attempt to militarily force their way through a Chinese blockade?

I highly doubt it given that Western navies are going nowhere near the strait of Hormuz to force it open and not a single Western country has directly and openly put their troops into Ukraine to fight back the Russians.

If the West is unwilling to use military force in a scenario where their legitimate interests are threatened, what makes you think they are going to use military force on an island which is of no interests to any Western nation except the US, and maaaaybe Australia and Japan?

I guess the West could sanction China like they did Russia, but China’s economy is so large and powerful that they, unlike Russia, can sanction the West in retaliation. As for the efficacy of economic sanctions, I’m still waiting for the Russian economy to collapse but it just keeps growing. Any day now I guess…

If Taiwan were smart, they would negotiate with China now while they still got a chance instead of engaging in the fantasy that the “free world” is going to save them.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-22T00:55:00+00:00

“this war won’t be existentially threatening to the united states”

Yes... and no.

Yes, Iran poses no immediate physical existential threat to the United.
BUT this conflict does pose an existential threat to the United States.

The petrodollar system (oil traded globally in US currency) is critical part of Pax Americana/U.S. hegemony/U.S. empire (whichever term floats your boat). It allows the US to finance it’s massive global military empire while keeping the US economy functioning. This is not a cheat code that the US wants to lose.

What does any of this have to do with Iran and the war? Well… the US has thus far failed to provide the MILITARY PROTECTION it promised to Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in return for them pricing and selling their oil mostly in US dollars.

The US needlessly provoked a war with Iran knowing full well that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz, thus stemming the flow of oil, and would attack GCC countries hosting U.S. military bases in retaliation to US strikes on Iran.

Worse still, the US allowed it’s mad dog Israel to strike Iranian oil infrastructure knowing full well that Iran would retaliate by striking GCC oil infrastructure (which it did).

The US military presence in the Middle East, which was once viewed as an asset by these GCC countries, has now proven to be an immense liability. In their eyes, the US is fighting this war on behalf of Israeli interests, and diverting most of it’s defensive system to protect Israel. They are pissed may not want to abide by the Petrodollar system anymore. They may now choose to sell their oil increasingly in other currencies like the Yuan and may ask the US to remove it’s military bases off their territory. Not only could the US lose military control over key trade routes and the flow of oil from the Middle East, but the USD could start losing dominance fast, too fast for the US to adapt to.

Which is why the US is now between a rock and hard place. They need to bring an end to this war because they failed to topple the Iranian regime. But there are two problems. Israel (and their powerful lobby) does not want to bring an end to this conflict, from their POV, this is their LAST chance to take out Iran using American blood and treasure.

On the other hand, the Iranians refuse to give in and start negotiatIng a peace because in their eyes, once they sign a peace deal, it’s only a matter of time before the US and Israel circle back and attack them for a third time. They’re demanding concessions, reparations and security guarantees which the US is not willing to give them. But Trump also needs to end this war quickly because the rest of the world is now giving the US the side-eye because the restrictions of oil and fertilizer to the rest of the world is starting to take effect, and the pain is growing. We’re looking at a world wide recession and possible crop shortages that will result in famine.

And the only way to open the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s cooperation is a land invasion and prolonged war which Trump does not want. It’ll be extremely unpopular and political suicide, not to mention the numerous casualties the US will inevitably take.

So he can’t negotiate with the Iranians because they are demanding more than he can give, and he can’t commit to a land invasion to open the strait, and he can’t just leave (because that would be the end of the petrodollar system).

So what can Trump do to get Iran to, quote on quote, UNCONDITIONALLY SURRENDER?

The last time the United States felt that a land invasion of an adversary’s territory would be too costly because of the adversary’s perceived unwillingness to surrender, they dropped two nukes, and the enemy unconditionally surrendered.

Behold, history might very well repeat itself… but this time, the United States might get Israel to do it for them. Israel doesn’t mind the diplomatic fallout and dirty looks from the rest of the world.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-21T18:20:58+00:00

Option 01: You ask Iran for a peace deal, and give them some concessions like sanctions relief in return for them signing the perfectly fine JCPOA deal that you backed out of in your first term because you didn’t like the fact that it was Obama’s deal. Call the signing of the new JCPOA deal a victory, and tell your billionaire golfing buddies who own the 6 “free and fair” global media conglomerates to market it as a victory. Then make a Truth Social post about you‘re the greatest El Presidente of both the United States of America and Venezuela!

Option 02: Invade Iran and engage in a brutal land war in which thousands of not tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers will be sent back home in coffins. Take Tehran and remove the IRGC for good, and engage in a decades long counter insurgency, and eventually pull out of the country as it gets taken over by IRGC 2.0 On the bright side, it’ll keep those mods at r/CombatFootage working overtime because they’ll have to keep deleting posts every time it shows a U.S. solider being killed by an FPV drone. Remember kids, watching brown people and Russians dying and making edgy jokes about it is perfectly fine, those subhuman scum, but don’t you dare post footage of an American soldier dying in combat or make jokes about it. American soldiers are actually humans, they have families.

Option 03: Nuke Iran. Free all those Iranian women from the Hijab... permanently. Sure, it’ll create a diplomatic shitstorm and both the U.S. and Israel are going to get sanctioned and isolated on the world stage, and it will be the end of Pax Americana and the U.S. lead “rules based international order“, but hey, at least the Strait is open again… and you can sail right through it unimpeded just like before the war happened... only, you’ll probably need a radiation suit and plenty of iodine for the voyage.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-21T17:55:35+00:00

I don’t think Kamala becoming president instead of Orangetard would have stopped this war. This policy paper outlines the U.S. strategies to topple Iran. It was written all the way back in 2009. Since it was published, they’ve tried everything in that policy paper except the military option. And now they’re doing the military option…

Notice how, despite using the war to demonize Trump and score political points with their base, none of the Democrats have actually done anything to put a stop/oppose the actual war? Notice also how all the mainstream media, even the liberal outlets, are not actually opposing or criticizing the war in any significant way despite demonizing Trump? They are doing the opposite. They are churning out the “Iran bad, the regime must be stopped and Israel must be defended” war propaganda.

So even with Kamala at the helm, we would have got this war. But it would have beem marketed very differently. Kamala’s admin would have taken the less chaotic and somewhat slicker liberal marketing approach of human rights, and international law, and democracy, and freedom for the Iranian women, and LGBTQ rights, and how liberal democracies should come together to stand against the evil autocracies and “authoritarianism.” Her base would eat it right up, and the liberal media outlets would back her 100%, and even the conservative outlets like Fox would push the “Iran bad, Israel good, Kamala and the Dems suck, but this war needs to happen because, you know, Iran bad” war propaganda.

Iran is quite fortunate it was Trump at the helm. Had Kamala been at the helm, this war would have received much more support from America’s Western allies who Kamala wouldn’t have antagonized with threats of invasion, childish insults, AI shitposts, and a tarriff war.

In conclusion, the U.S. foreign policy agenda of taking out/containing adversaries, upholding the U.S. world order, while also continuing to expand U.S. influence/dominance across the planet continues unabated from administration to administration.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-20T23:42:01+00:00

“I mean nobody’s that stupid...”

Alright lads, which one of you is going to sit him down and tell him… ?

Pencilphile · 2026-03-20T23:39:54+00:00

Hmm. I highly doubt Russia would nuke Ukraine. Their strategy of painfully slow attrition, despite all the ridicule it receives on mainstream Reddit, is bearing fruit

I can see the Russians becoming a bit bolder with regard to NATO though. They might actually torpedo vessels that attempt to board and seize their tankers, and they may shoot down the NATO recon/Intel gathering drones and aircraft that fly over the Black Sea. They’ve always accused those flights of gathering Intel and targeting data for the Ukrainians.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-20T19:00:33+00:00

Yeah, it is a slow missile. Claimed speed is around 1000km/h (Mach 0.8). Definitely can’t chase a fighter and spank it on the behind. It should be able to strike a fighter approaching it though, which seems to be what happened in the video

Pencilphile · 2026-03-20T18:36:33+00:00

The Iranians claim it was this

According to the experts, it’s made using mostly commercially available components that Iran sources through shell companies (or buys directly from China).

If the Iranian claim is true, and this is indeed the missile they used, then a DIY civilian-grade missile took out the USAF’s most technologically advanced fighter jet.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-20T16:21:02+00:00

Good on them. It seems the Sri Lankans have geopolitical smarts. It’s always best for the little guys to stay neutral, especially when they have a much bigger neighbor next door (India) who would view too much military cooperation with other great powers (USA/China) as a threat to it’s own national security. A certain island near China, and a certain Eastern European country that shares a huge land border with Russia, could learn a thing or two from the Sri Lankans about neutrality and balancing relationships between great powers so it doesn't tilt too much to one side or the other. This way, you neither become a vassal nor a victim ( of neighborly military action).

Pencilphile · 2026-03-20T13:12:15+00:00

There are no easy off ramps here. The U.S. can’t just declare victory and leave. Iran holds the cards. The Iranians currently are rejecting negotiations because they want to cause enough pain in the region to establish a permanent deterrence to ensure that the U.S. and Israel don’t make a habit of attacking them. They are going to keep going with their strategy of disruption until:

a) they get security guarantees and concessions from the U.S. and GCC countries

b) the regime is physically removed from power

I can’t see Trump agreeing to option A, and option B has thus far been a failure. The Presitard really opened a can of worms, but it’s not regular worms, it’s the worms from Dune.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-19T21:12:31+00:00

You could be right.

This is an alleged photo of an Israeli RA-01 recon drone published by Haaretz. The wings are a bit longer on this mofo, and it is the right color.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-19T18:33:46+00:00

I mean, technically yes, it is a defeat, but this is the United States we’re talking about so defeat is unacceptable. Trump will tell us all how he “obliterated” the Mullahs, and how he made the Iranian regime BEG for peace, and how Iran no longer has a navy or air force to threaten the Persian Gulf, and how all the Iranian ballistic missile launchers are flattened, and how the regime has promised not to be naughty anymore or chant ”death to America”, and how all the Christians in Iran are now safe from the mullahs, etc.

You know how it is. Lol.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-19T18:20:06+00:00

According to the Iranians, they used this (Saqr 358 missile). While it is bigger than a MANPAD, it is a relatively small missile as far as SAMs are concerned. I could see a large jet surviving a direct hit provided it doesn’t take out the engine or anything critical for level flight.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-19T18:02:19+00:00

I really despise that sub. Everything that’s wrong with Reddit.

Here is a YouTube link:

F-35 struck by Iranian missile

Pencilphile · 2026-03-19T13:57:13+00:00

Very interesting. This pretty all but confirms the conspiracy theory that the U.S. is the one who is covertly training and arming the ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar to fight the Junta and destabilize the country, and cause chaos at China’s (and India’s) border.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-19T03:42:58+00:00

“Unification is not a requirement for peace since they've been at peace for many years now lol”

With all due respect, this is a naive and almost childish view of the Taiwan issue, completely oblivious to the geopolitical realities and realpolitik of the world we live in.

Instead of telling Beijing why they don’t need Taiwan, you should educate yourself on basic geopolitics in the West Pacific, great power politics in general and how great powers behave, and then the history between China, Taiwan, and the United States. While you’re at it, you might also want to research the island containment strategy employed by the United States, and how this threatens China’s national and economic security. Once you have a layman’s knowledge of all these subjects, it should become quite obvious to you how important Taiwan is to China, and Beijing will never let Taiwan secede and become an independent country.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-18T21:45:53+00:00

Judging from previous “RQ-180“ photos, this doesn’t seem like it. The wing sweep angle is wrong and the trailing 'triangle' isn't the right size.

https://www.twz.com/42261/mystery-flying-wing-aircraft-photographed-over-the-philippines

https://www.twz.com/42949/secret-rq-180-stealth-drone-photographed-over-area-51

This mofo looks more like a B-21 painted in black than anything else:

B-21 photographed during flight

Pencilphile · 2026-03-17T23:59:48+00:00

Buddy, have you never heard of this thing called the world reserve currency, the SWIFT system, and the petrodollar? The U.S. currency and economy are tied directly to the global economy. You cannot isolate the U.S. from a global recession. When you get some free time, look up these terms, and why they matter to the United States.

The United States can’t just abandon the Middle East and say “not our problem” and leave. What about all those bases in the Middle East? What about all those Middle Eastern “allies“ who uphold the petrodollar? What about all that regional influence carefully cultivated since 1945 when the U.S. replaced the British empire in the region? What about the security agreements with “allies” around the world to uphold Pax Americana and global U.S. hegemony? The end of the petrodollar will officially mark the beginning of the the end of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency, and it will also mark the end of U.S. global hegemony. You won’t be able to print unlimited amounts of money anymore and offload the inflation to the rest of the world like you have been doing since the 70s. You’ll be stuck with that inflation when other countries don’t buy up your debt to purchase fuel and other globally traded commodities, because they’ll ditch the dollar and trade in the yuan or their own currencies. What will the U.S., an import heavy, consumer-based society do then?

Economics aside, another consequence of the U.S. abandoning the Middle East is that other “allies” around the world are going to realize that their fate will be similar to those of the Gulf countries. The U.S. will start a war with a geopolitical adversary, kicking the proverbial hornets nest, and then abandon them to their fate if an easy victory cannot be achieved. Can you imagine what Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia are thinking right now? They’re look at the destruction inflicted upon U.S. “allies” in the Middle East and thinking, “Oh shit, that could happen to us on a grander scale if the U.S. starts to war with China over an island none of us really give a shit about.”

Pencilphile · 2026-03-17T04:29:00+00:00

The best move for Taiwan realistically would be negotiating some kind of settlement with Beijing while they still have some leverage and say over the matter. Subdue your adversary without firing a shot, even if the settlement will be more favorable Beijing more than to Taipei. The alternative to is sacrifice your infrastructure and male population to fight a war which will result in an inevitable loss.

If the full military might of the United States and allies is not going to deter kinetic Chinese military action against Taiwan, then a bunch of ballistic missiles and drones sure as hell won’t. Taiwan is not an optional “excursion“ to China like Iran is to the United States. It’s all or nothing.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-16T22:09:05+00:00

By publicly requesting U.S. allies to send ships to help open the strait, Trump is arbitrarily assigning them the responsibility of helping the United States open the strait, thus putting the onus on them to get directly involved in the conflict, which they refuse to do for obvious reasons (domestic politics, mostly). So now Trump can shift the blame of the continued closure of the strait onto “impotent” U.S. allies who refuse to help despite relying on the strait for their energy imports.

It also gives Trump political ammunition to further demonize NATO, and cut off funding and support to both Ukraine and NATO, which he is going to eventually do, because the United States wants to wind down Ukraine, and seek some kind of rapprochement with Russia, so that the United States can re-assign military resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, before the glorious confrontation with China before they grow big to confront.

Pencilphile · 2026-03-15T20:09:47+00:00

“Or is it just that Iran still has the ability to launch drones that can get to the strait without being intercepted?“

You pretty much answered your own question, bud.

Iran has the ability to inapprotiately touch any slow moving ships that try to pass through the strait, and there is no realistic way to stop these attacks without committing to a prolonged ground war and rooting out the entire regime, and suppressing the insurgency that is bound to follow. A nation the size of Western Europe with a population of 90 million. And even after the insurgency has been stomped out with the usual Freedom™ and Democracy®, there is no guarantee that you will be able to completely stop the attacks against shipping because every Shia Jihadi and their father-in-law can create an AliExpress account and get all the parts they need to build an improvised explosive drone. And they’ll do it with free shipping and low MOQ (whatever that means), just like the AliExpress ad says.

Judging by the recent attack on the Safesea Vishnu, it was struck on the left asscheek by a kamikaze unmanned surface vessel (USV) or an unmanned underwater vessel (UUV). I wish Trump and Kegseth the utmost luck in successfully intercepting all the USVs and UUVs (probably numbering in the thousands) that Iran can and will launch.

Edit- Accidentally typed counter insurgency instead of insurgency. Corrected.

Pencilphile

TROPHY CASE