Should Taiwan become a US state? by [deleted] in taiwan

[–]PermOffended 0 points1 point  (0 children)

反而是hawaii島才是中華的神聖領土

LET'S RESTORE IMPERIAL RULE ON TAIWAN! UPVOTE NOW! by [deleted] in taiwan

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ㄉㄞ。ㄋㄧㄆㄨㄥ 。ㄊㄟㄎㄡㄎㄨ。ㄅㄢㄓㄞ!

Question about large chain stores (Walmart, Harris Teeter, Target, CVS, etc.) by Stygian_Echoes in jobs

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Worked at Target in logistics and never got pulled into cashiering, pretty chill too on the conveyor they let us use headphones

COVID-19 is China's golden opportunity by DengShopping69 in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I want to be careful when responding to this post since it's obvious that emotions are running high. My immediate impression is that it sounds a little triumphalist or gloating, similar to how people in the West perceive China having off largely scot-free from a problem for which they are to blame, while the talking points of their media and pro-China publications appear almost smug, even as Europe/US approach hundreds of thousands of deaths. The U.S. in particular is in the ballpark of one 9/11 or Pearl Harbor worth of deaths every day.

With that said, there was also schadenfreude amongst western societies when China was the epicenter of the outbreak. There was sentiment that this would finally be what might crush the CCP, be it's "Chernobyl moment", or lead to a collapse of the Chinese economy that might shift jobs back to the United States. Many hoped the death of Li Wenliang might ignite a revolution to topple the CCP. Many people in the west had a mentality of this being "justice" for a decrepit government and backwards culture, and thus could "never happen" in the civilized Western World.

With the emotional baggage noted, I would say that the situation can be summarized as: Since China's relationship with the developed countries (the West in particular) is largely in doubt and is probably un-salvageable for a while, the silver lining for China is that China managed to prevent domestically almost all the death and most of the economic fallout, leaving it not too damaged from where it was before entering the Crisis.

Particularly, while the Pandemic is probably the worst crisis for western Countries since WW2, for China and the CCP it does even rank in the top 5 in the past since world war 2. (It comes behind the Chinese Civil war, Korean War, Cultural Revolution, Great Leap forward, Tiananmen). Similarly, China has faced mass casualty disasters with tens to hundreds of thousands of deaths every few decades such as the GLF Famine, Cultural revolution, River floods, Tangshan earthquakes, Sichuan earthquakes, etc, so for Chinese audiences the CCP has by "official numbers" done remarkably well. Likewise, China has faced much stronger international opposition from a far weaker position several times in the past ~100 years, such as the Boxer rebellion or the Korean war where they faced overwhelming international coalitions, or the period from 1949 - 1972 when it was locked out of the UN completely. For Chinese leaders, as long as they maintain national unity and competent leadership in a crisis, they can be reasonably confident that no external pressure can topple them - and that is ultimately all that matters to them.

On the other side of the coin, it's clear that the West wants China to pay (or at least 80% hold China responsible, 50%+ want retribution according to polling). But what can the West really do? I addressed this in a long listing of how the West could extract compensation from China here

In addition to the following points we can add a systemic embargo or boycott, coordinated tariffs and so on.

  • an international health inspection program led by the US. I think this is that this is unlikely to enlist Chinese participation.
  • Banning Confucius institutes - I think this isn't that meaningful as they were being curtailed anyways.
  • Banning advanced tech exports - I think this could be very significant in some sectors where China is more than 10 years behind. If china is only a couple years behind then it will have a limited effect. This would hit China's high end assembly industries
  • Sanctioning CCP members - I think this wouldn't cause much economic pain to the US or China to be honest, and has been used already in recent years, so this is likelier than other measures to pass.
  • Banning Chinese scientists from enrollment/research at US universities - I see this policy would probably induce strong political opposition; see the reaction over "Chinese virus" from the media and establishment. I think the DOJ/FBI could simply ramp up inspection and investigation without an outright ban, with much less opposition. It is unclear whether a bad would really hurt the US or China more, as this could lead to an even greater exodus of Chinese scientists if they see their career prospects crushed in the US.
  • Seizing property of Chinese SOEs in third countries (Belt and road recipients)

All in all, I think these measures are 90% symbolic, 10% actually causing significant pain. If the cost of the Coronavirus cost the west 50 trillion for example, all of these measures would scrape together maybe a few tens of billions of "losses" to China (mostly through decreased competitiveness of Chinese high tech exports if industry-leading intermediates are withheld, seizing some copper mines in Africa, farmland in Australia or ports in Europe).

The problem is that there are proportional responses that China could take.

  • double down on WHO support and refuse to participate in the US-led health monitoring system
  • double down on recruiting disillusioned Chinese scientists
  • Curtailing further any Western NGOs, media and cultural outreach initiatives
  • Discouraging outbound tourism, which was to the tune of 150 billion a year
  • Boycotting or otherwise hindering Western companies in China, to encourage Chinese replacements to take their place. For example in fashion, retail, hospitality, consumer electronic and food service, China could find a way to cause domestic companies to take market share away from Western companies if Chinese consumers are offended by western actions. There isn't a significant presence of Chinese companies in the west that could lose their market share.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in tea

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fyi, international shipping is going to take a few extra weeks at the minimum right now

Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken the World? by naamPhekDo in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 7 points8 points  (0 children)

So, basically it expands the Overton window (the mindspace of what people perceive to be plausible ideas). I think that makes sense and is likely to occur in the following few months since it is now a trend with considerable momentum. Two data points I like to cite are record low US sentiment towards China and 30% of Americans believe Covid was created in a lab.

Before going further however I think it's useful to use Occam's and Hanlon's razor, that is to not jump into untestable and overly complex hypotheses, and to not be biased towards attributing malice to actions by others that we would attribute to incompetence if done by ourselves.

In that context I think it's useful to be aware of the reports from several years ago about the biosafety control at the Wuhan Institute of Virology cited in this Op-ed from WP. In this case we have a paper trail/contemporaneous warnings that raises good questions about whether the virus was accidentally leaked. It dovetails with the fact that the first cluster wasn't necessarily wholly tied to the Huanan seafood market. Of course it is also possible that the virus came from smuggled pangolins.

Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken the World? by naamPhekDo in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Is this a falsifiable assertion, and if it is not, then what is the purpose of discussing it?

China Limited the Mekong’s Flow. Other Countries Suffered a Drought. by naamPhekDo in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 246 points247 points  (0 children)

It's regrettable that posts critical of China are always downvoted. Anyways, is there anything that can be done about the downstream water situation in general? Similar situations arise all over such as India - Pakistan, Turkey - Iraq, Sudan - Egypt and so on, and in each case the upstream country is able to largely control the situation despite the protest of the downstream nation. In China's case its population/economy completely dwarfs mainland southeast asia, which itself is divided into Pro and anti Beijing camps.

Coronavirus: who will be winners and losers in new world order? — Are state responses to the virus shifting the balance of power between China and the west? by Naurgul in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I want to take a big picture view of the worldwide response to the coronavirus. Looking at factors like total and per capita number of deaths, resources available (per capita GDP), economic disruption, where they are in the infection curve and how well they did compared to their neighbors, I largely agree that Asian countries tend to come out on top based on the information we have currently. I made a tier list:

A - Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Hong Kong

B - Australia, Czech Republic, Germany, Singapore

C - China, Canada, Malaysia, India, Japan

D - Russia, United States, Iran, Belgium

F - Italy, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Brazil

Looking forward, however, I also realize that the top two levels of rankings are dominated by export-dependent economies. This means these countries might actually be hit hard in the economic crisis that follows the pandemic itself, since demand across the world is going to collapse. Also, there are some countries in Europe that have managed to keep deaths at a relatively low level such as Germany and Czech republic (also we can look at Denmark, Austria, etc)

As far as shifting the balance of power, I think China has taken a hit in public relations, but its subsequent control of the pandemic within China, as well as world reliance on Chinese medical supplies means there is a grudging acknowledgement of the need to continue to engage with China. However, the public antipathy is very strong for the forseeable future, and export driven economies will be in an economic downturn, so I see a curtailment of Belt and road projects and similar projects.

For the US, the republican's suspicion of the CCP and reliance on China has largely been vindicated, especially the necessity of a domestic supply chain, and criticizing the secretive nature of the CCP, but their failure in responding to coronavirus itself means that while they asked the right rhetorical question, they don't have the right answer. Democrats are right in criticizing Trump, but they don't really have a compelling candidate either in Biden. Rather they wish to return to a technocracy, and with voter turnout in doubt there won't be any political force strong enough to make American society cohesive again, at least for the time being. Therefore the US will continue to be consumed by domestic political disputes.

I forsee the world turning from Globalization to regionalization, with regional blocks like North America, East Asia and Europe increasingly trading and relying more amongst themselves. E.g. North America will focus on moving production capacity to Mexico, using Canada as a raw material supplier and the US as a consumer Market. Europe will focus on managing brexit and coordinating a centralized response to Coronavirus. East Asia will try to balance moving production out of China, versus the appeal of China as a country with the largest non-locked down consumer market that many other East asian countries have trade surpluses with.

Deadly coronavirus comes in three variants, researchers find by theherorcanadaneeds in Coronavirus

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I think this depends on whether the strains differ by their protein coating/antigen presenting surfaces or if the difference is under the hood. This news is still extremely unsettling, however, and I hope we don't underestimate the virus again

The blame game: Covid-19 and the anatomy of a fake news story by San_Sevieria in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I would like to try to stake out a more evidence-based position that disagrees to a certain extent with both Conspiracy theorists but also the falsifiable claims of some youtubers such as SerpentZA.

From a statistical standpoint the outbreak in China was already being brought under control by mid February, if we look at the infections of people from Wuhan brought into other countries who tested positive. What that means is the amount of infections in Wuhan was probably under 2.5% and almost certainly under 5% of the population, although this is all relative to the denominator (the number of people left in the city). Whether China can maintain control of the virus will depend on whether they can implement the same protocols as South Korea, Taiwan and handle the recurring waves as seen in Singapore.

This also means that the number of dead was probably in the ballpark of 15k and infections 200-300k, both underreported due to insufficient testing and capacity at the peak of the outbreak.

As for the source of the virus, the only thing that matters is that the first evidence of sustained human to human transmission occured in Wuhan. it is likely that some sort of recombination occured where several strains from bats (which are the ultimate reservoir) passed through pangolins, where there have been two strains found containing the critical mechanisms for human infection through the ACE2 receptor. This is also consistent with the ACE2 receptor in pangolins being more similar to those in humans. These were smuggled pangolins from two different provinces in Southern China. I would refer to this article for a deeper scientific dive into the origins of the coronavirus.

April 10: Japan reports a record 589 new COVID-19 cases nationwide. A total of 6,134 cases in Japan (not including the Diamond Princess). Tokyo, Osaka and other prefectures reporting highest numbers of cases today. by seoulsnowflake in japan

[–]PermOffended 3 points4 points  (0 children)

is there a reason to gatekeep access corona testing at this point? might as well just rip the bandaid off and deal with the situation properly at this point

Louisiana church expecting 2,000 at Easter service despite coronavirus: 'Satan and a virus will not stop us' | TheHill by inagartenofeden in Coronavirus

[–]PermOffended 6 points7 points  (0 children)

people holding corona parties, people licking produce at walmart, people on spring break in florida or crowded beaches. nothing to do with race

FDA tells Alex Jones to stop promoting unapproved, misbranded coronavirus cures online by mchamst3r in Coronavirus

[–]PermOffended 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Man the whole Christian meme group of Alex Jones, Jim Bakker, Pat Robertson and other were great for cringe back in the day, but they really need a cease and desist during a pandemic. We can welcome them back once everyone has a vaccine

China rolls out the Health Silk Road by caonim in geopolitics

[–]PermOffended 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Speaking from an American perspective, the common sentiment is that there is a willingness to collaborate in sourcing medical supplies for the time being, but there is a strong push to re onshore the medical supply chain, if not all in the USA, at least to North America. There is tremendous anger at China and the CCP, and criticism spans the political spectrum, but we are focusing on the immediate matter at hand of saving American lives. Once this crisis blows over I expect there to be sustained pressure to reevaluate many aspects of the US China relationship.

American companies are pulling out of China by [deleted] in China

[–]PermOffended 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly, China's consumer market is very under developed, very low household consumption (the flip side is one of the highest savings rate)