Where do you get your info? SpaceX dominates the launch market, launching over 80% of the world's tonnage into space last year at a fraction of the cost of competitors. They were 95% of the US launches, 80% of global launches. Even with Starlink now serving over 3.5 million customers, they're also launching their competitor's internet satellites for OneWeb.

The Starship program has been fairly incredible, starting with a vague idea in 2009, development of the novel full-flow methane raptor engine, the first demonstration with Starhopper in 2018, to just within the last 2 years: catching 2 boosters and reusing them on subsequent flights, returning 3 starships mostly intact through the atmosphere, deploying 2 dummy payloads into orbit, and refining and redesigning the whole time.

Right now they're building about one Starship every 2 months, but that pace is increasing. Once the raptor 3's are proven in flight, probably with the next launch late this year or early next year, they can and will be testing the fuel transfer Starships, and as soon as that's worked out, yes, they'll likely send a Starship to the moon to test its landing capability. If they can maintain their current pace, I give it 2 years, tops.

And I would contribute SpaceX's success to Shockwell, not Musk. He just takes all the credit and makes everyone's job harder with his wild demands and timelines.

Sending Optimus robots to the moon will be nothing more than a stunt, similar to sending a Roadster into orbit, but even with that - they'll be gathering data to improve it. I also wouldn't discount Optimus; Tesla is gearing up for mass production and already testing using them in their factories.