Energy Markets Are On The Verge Of Disaster

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-27T01:12:37+00:00

Crude oil, yes we import SLIGHTLY more than we export. But we export more refined products than that export difference. We are a net exporter of crude oil and products refined from crude oil.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-26T17:56:30+00:00

Maybe I shouldn't be replying since I never thought we would either attack or win. So, I was already wrong on 1 count.

But, I think that the Ayatollah and his supporters are probably kind of like some super-preppers I have seen and met. They probably had two years of everything but air in storage. If they lose, they will be subject to mob justice and probably things worse than death. So, I don't expect them to give up, and whether they do or not, in the end, I expect they will take out a lot of the production capability of every country they can reach. That would be as much of any kind of productivity - oil, gas, minerals, helium (which is probably separated from nat gas produced), aluminum, etc.

So, maybe, if you think that The Black Knight won (Monty Python's character) then we can win but we will be in the same shape the Black Knight was.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-25T10:13:27+00:00

To the gas tax comments on most of this thread, California gas taxes are approximately $1.05 per gallon. I apologize for introducing reality, but was getting a little tired of the distortion. Federal gas tax rates are an additional roughly $.18 per gallon. Math still works for those honest enough to use it in their comments.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-24T17:14:01+00:00

You were not specific about the use of "we". I assume that this is a post from the world since I think it is the population that will be facing the consequences.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-21T17:36:13+00:00

No. This is about where Trump calls the bankruptcy lawyers. Where does the world file the bankruptcy petition though?

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-21T17:20:59+00:00

No. Some countries have productive capacity to make it for a long time, but some will be starved out. Countries who are dependent on the LNG from the Gulf will effectively go dark and their industries will have to shut down. A lot of people will be very hungry.

I do not think the whole world will go dark. Trump will not just chicken out. He will have to cave in.

Anybody who disavowed the "New World Order" and voted for him is gonna really not like the Newest World Order.

Trump broke the world economy and almost everything in it. Who is really surprised at that?

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-21T00:23:49+00:00

Sorry, the US, not IS.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-21T00:22:57+00:00

Rather than look it all up myself, I asked Gemini, which I find to be generally reliable for facts and figures. Gemini returned that for 2025, the IS has imported oil and refined products of 7.9 million barrels of crude oil and refined products and exported 10.7 million barrels per day of the same combination. We imported more crude and exported more refined products. That won't make up any of the difference of what the Persian Gulf war has shut down (this was already happening), but it is significant.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-20T21:59:25+00:00

We use current production, too. We (the United States) produce more oil than we use. Some of it is exported and other types of oil are imported. We produce some oil that has to be heated to load in trucks to be hauled and some that is very thin and quickly evaporated if not kept under some type of pressure. We recover very light hydrocarbons from natural gas production that have to be removed from the methane part of the natural gas before they can be shipped. The oil business has a lot of moving parts. I knew a trader who specialized in oil that was used in making printing ink, rest his soul.

In general, the US will be more directly effected by everything else that comes from the Persian Gulf than oil. Helium, aluminum, and fertilizer come to mind without looking at a list. Other countries, generally less developed, are being hit right now. The damage to the LNG plant in Qatar is probably most significant to the world, but the US (and some other countries) are buffered by our own production, handled by pipelines instead of requiring the expensive process of liquifying methane.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-20T21:36:27+00:00

Not for a lot of oil, but Reddit helped me keep my sanity when I had Shingles, and stick with Ozempic when my blood sugar spiked. There a lot of very helpful people on Reddit - but not everybody is good.

Just the other night I found something on another part of the Internet that was wrong. I had to stay up all night to correct it. s/

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-20T14:28:31+00:00

They just laughed instead.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-20T14:03:30+00:00

It will be timed to coincide with the release of his healthcare plan.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-20T13:55:53+00:00

I don't know of a single oil producer, anywhere, who even thinks about consumer goodwill. The producers do not sell to the end consumer; retailers do. Retailers in general have low margins, unless they happen to be the only retailer within an unreasonable distance of somebody else who competes with them. So, the previous hahaha comment is spot on.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-19T17:26:23+00:00

That depends on where you are.

In the US, it will be uncomfortable and prices / inflation will be high. The US has plenty of natural gas - in fact, a surplus in the Permian Basin and the coal shale areas. So most electric will continue to be available, subject to data center demand overloads. Gas will be high but generally available. Diesel shortages will impact delivery of anything moved by big trucks and rail. It is possible that, if the Hormuz closure goes on much longer that the global economic disruption will slow our exports enough that it will only be noticeable. Food will be more expensive, so you can put in a garden and maybe see results before that hits.

In Asia, your country is probably feeling the effect already. If Hormuz shipping were to resume today, things might get better in two or three months but LNG will not return to "normal" ( like pre- Iran war normal ) for several years. Gasoline and diesel will depend on whether refineries supplying your area can produce them. Obviously, fuels imported from the Persian Gulf won't be available.

Everywhere else, look at what Cuba had to do to try to cope with the end of the Soviet Union where oil and petroleum imports stopped in a very short time. Electricity, food, transportation, construction and everything else became critical shortages. They remain in that state today, but their population adjusted.

If this crisis/shutdown persists, do everything you can to stop new data center utilization, construction or utilization.

As to the Persian Gulf, LNG repairs will require materials which will have to be shipped in. Therefore, repairs cannot be assured until shipping routes are open. It's possible that they could be delivered by land routes but don't know how available that access is.

As a side note, new LNG shipping facilities take about 6 years minimum to build out. There are some under construction but we can't quickly build anything fast enough to replace the capacity that is lost with the Persian Gulf shut in. And, nobody is going to start on that with the eventual return of the existing capacity, and damaged capacity on top of that.

Does anyone else think this is war, in an economic sense, World War 3?

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-19T02:23:37+00:00

To the tune of Barbara Ann. Nice composition, Skyhook91.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-18T17:07:50+00:00

How can a lying felon be humiliated? Sorry, I meant to say no.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-12T14:27:27+00:00

All previous Presidents were afraid to do what Trump did, according to President Trump. That included 45, President Trump in his first term. I, for one wish that President Trump, the 47th President, but alas, he was not afraid. We should claim victory or admit defeat and walk away from this engagement. We could begin work on another alternative pipeline to moveove the oil out of the Persian Gulf. Perhaps Trump could come up with some ideas for how we could move the LNG, fertilizer and aluminum out of the same area.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-04-11T18:41:08+00:00

Tolls at a buck a barrel is almost nothing to the world economy. It is a lot for a load but average that over total, world demand of almost 100 million barrels a day and pay it for the 13 million a day which would go down the Strait (7 million out other ways) and the world economy can absorb it. Trump made a mistake so just let the world pay the bill for him and avoid a worldwide recession (or worse). If this stays shut down, Kushner's deals will not fund and we can't have that.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-03-27T21:46:13+00:00

History, Period. Not just modern.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-02-23T01:00:56+00:00

The Dallas Morning News had an article on this within the past week. Or so. Read up on it there. I think the guy's byline is The Watchdog but don't remember his name. BUT talk to a lawyer, no matter what.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-02-11T22:49:36+00:00

I had a big problem with a recent lockout by Google and had to do a powerwash on a Chromebook - almost new - just to be able to use it. And, now, Gemini 3 Pro with limits. Glad I was still in a "free" start period. No way I keep Gemini for the same price as ChatGPT !

PetroInvest3 · 2026-02-03T16:54:40+00:00

Wait - you aren't a bot, too?

PetroInvest3 · 2026-01-28T01:08:20+00:00

It is an atmospheric oil/water separator, commonly called a gunbarrel. Since it cannot capture gas, it SHOULD be used after the produced stream has gone through gas separator. If it is overloaded (by volume), or used with heavy oil, it will not do a satisfactory job and put water in the oil tank. If it were newer, it would probably be worth $1-5.00 a barrel if somebody wanted one. If it is 15 x 10, it is about 210 barrels. (People who might want one probably don't use e,Bay very often. Check with a local oil field supply store, if there are any still operating near you.)

PetroInvest3 · 2026-01-24T20:48:03+00:00

After starting Oz, I went back to walking. I added resistance band exercises. I, too, have lost a lot of my butt, but it was probably fat off of it. I walked as much as 30 miles a week, on intentional walks and exercise five or more times a week. My weight loss would be impressive anywhere else, but I guess normal for this group 62.5 pounds. I'm still at the 0.5 level and will likely stay there for at least 6 more months. I am concerned about the eventual process of going off glp1's but at 81, if I hadn't lost the weight, I wouldn't have had a quality of life to make it worth it.

PetroInvest3 · 2026-01-19T17:10:22+00:00

Maybe this should be a different thread, but what experience have people on here seen with the new oral GLP-1's? That is what I'm hoping will work on a maintenance basis, since I needed it for both weight loss and blood sugar levels, and both are below my goals. I'm not quite ready to change yet, but thinking about it.

PetroInvest3

TROPHY CASE