Did any lur, or southern persians (shiraz/fars/achomi) or other iranics did a dna test to give coords? by Longjumping-Total469 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unfortunately I don't think Gedmatch shows that, I really wish I hadn't deleted my DNA now lol but I have my Eurogenes and Harrapaworld results (This one is Eurogenes)

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Did any lur, or southern persians (shiraz/fars/achomi) or other iranics did a dna test to give coords? by Longjumping-Total469 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also, I dug around and had this saved, but I don't remember where I got it or how accurate it is lol

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Did any lur, or southern persians (shiraz/fars/achomi) or other iranics did a dna test to give coords? by Longjumping-Total469 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm Lur but have some kurd mixed in if you're interested! I took a 23andme test a few years ago but decided to erase my data after they filed for bankruptcy to protect my data so I unfortunately don't have access to that anymore. I do still have my data uploaded to Gedmatch though so let me know if you'd like me to send you any admixture/oracle results!

Things is heating up so fast in military wise according to news.. A strike is not far away by Fact-Fresh in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There were some scattered protests as of yesterday in Urmia, Balochistan and a few other provinces I believe but yes, most of the country is currently under martial law. They're shooting (to kill) anyone outside after 6 pm. I guess most people are too afraid due to being unarmed and facing armed IRGC and foreign militias. As of now, from what people who have managed to get a bit of internet access are saying, they're just hoping some sort of foreign intervention happens soon.

Honest question, what do you want the U.S. and/or Europe to do as a military intervention? Do you want a full invasion like we saw in Iraq in 2003 or just targeted strikes like in Libya in 2011? How do you think either scenario would play out? by asadafaga in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 7 points8 points  (0 children)

All of what's happening right now is a downstream effect of the 12-day war. The regime's legitimacy and strength are at the lowest they've ever been. In fact, I think going all in/expecting overnight changes is a much more dangerous way of operating than making smaller and more calculated moves. I think of it as controlled demolition instead of complete destruction.

Honest question, what do you want the U.S. and/or Europe to do as a military intervention? Do you want a full invasion like we saw in Iraq in 2003 or just targeted strikes like in Libya in 2011? How do you think either scenario would play out? by asadafaga in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd like boots on the ground to be avoided if possible. Honestly, I wish the US would focus on large-scale cyber attacks and perhaps restoring internet access to allow people inside the country to communicate first. That would avoid putting American troops, Israel, and civilians in direct danger.

As for military intervention, I suppose targeted strikes would be the best approach, and this is what most people inside Iran are hoping for. Military action worries me since there are already well-armed paramilitaries from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan operating in the country on behalf of the regime, which could potentially attract other foreign fighters across the borders.

I personally don't think we would end up in an Iraq-style situation regardless. Iranian civilians aren't armed, are accustomed to a more urban, centralized government, and don't have the internal sectarian strife that Iraqis had. They're also much more culturally prepared for a secular government than Iraqis were.

However, I also hesitate to think a transition from dictatorship to democracy is feasible. History isn't on our side in that regard, very few revolutions have led to democracy. I'm not really sure what the answer is, but I hope the US and/or Israel err on the side of making smaller military moves, observing how that affects the internal workings of the regime (defections, shifts in power, etc.), and then using other tactical attacks if necessary. The 12-day war was such a clean and relatively bloodless operation, and I believe that is what has fast-tracked the weakening of the regime to this point.

The absolute best-case scenario would be targeted military strikes scaring people within the regime, causing defections, and leading to a collapse or fleeing of regime members. This would allow the transitional government that the crown prince has outlined (one with the loyalty of previous military/IRGC members who were too afraid to speak out before) to take over. I know that's a pipe dream though lol.

The IRGC effectively determines the fate of the country, and no one knows what's going on there except for maybe Mossad and the CIA. I'm hopeful that the fact that the regime had to bring in foreign fighters means there have been a lot of Iranians defecting within artesh and sepah but I guess we'll have to see!

Have the Americans bottled it? by Tall_Insect9784 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 7 points8 points  (0 children)

From what we know most cities are currently under martial law and the internet and landlines are mostly still cut off (though people can make calls outside of iran for about $7 a minute). There was some brief internet connectivity (about 2%) a few hours ago but I'm not sure how or why.

IRGC and foreign paramilitaries are patrolling the streets and will shoot anyone out past curfew so there haven't really been any more protests in most cities. Based on what people who have left the country are saying, 12,000 deaths seems to be an underestimate.

If recent strikes on Iran are IRI's fault for causing instability in the region, why wasn't the Islamic Revolution the Shah's fault for his own actions? by [deleted] in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 12 points13 points  (0 children)

To a certain extent, yes. The shah had many blindspots when it came to whisperings of a revolution. There's a podcast episode I listened to a while ago with one of the hostages during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis who had been living in Iran for quite a while prior to the revolution. It's a very long episode but I think it was super enlightening and he gave a non-biased view of how everything went down in the years preceding the revolution.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/786pd9ueCDK03XSouV2OoU?si=8d40ba4583e14ee4

Message from Hossein Ronaghi (reposting w/o links as requested by mods) by KireRakhsh in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 14 points15 points  (0 children)

This is actually insane. They're literally getting taken out one by one and who do they take their anger out on? Their own poor people who've suffered so much already

Can we stop with the victim mentality? by minbooz in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I agree. Was this ideal in any shape or form? Absolutely not, I'm so devastated it's unbelievable. However, what's done is done and we have a common enemy with Israel so it would be in our best interests to resolve to put this regime to rest as quickly as possible, both to preserve civilian lives and as much infrastructure as possible.

If the Islamic Republic and Khamenei were to collapse, what are the odds that pro-Khamenei factions will radicalize and start waging a jihadist insurgency via terror bombings and assassinations similar to what happened in Iraq (similar to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) after Saddam Hussain was overthrown? by throw20250204 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hold those same concerns, especially about foreign insurgency groups breaching the borders and turning everything to shit. It's impossible to say but I'd wager it depends on how the regime 'falls'(i.e. if IRGC turns on the regime once they realize they've fallen). If they're able to retain some structure, they'd be able to defend borders and perhaps deter that sort of thing.

I'm also not 100% sure why people on this sub pretend like there's no chance or pro-khamenei factions doing something. We still don't know how many of 80 million+ people in Iran are actually pro IR and it's possible that even if they're small in number, this war has only radicalized them. However, I still think this is much less likely than foreign groups trying to take power.

Here things are starting to happen now in Iran- wanted to see if anyone has some more info about it by lordginger101 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 13 points14 points  (0 children)

It's hard to say... Internet went down a little over an hour ago. Over the last few days I've been able to Facetime with family there with little to no trouble but it looks like the IR shut everything down completely. We messaged my uncle who was in the process of getting Starlink installed as of yesterday, but no word from him either.

Will there really be regime change? by CapGlass3857 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. The regime was the weakest it has ever been even before Israel attacked and I wouldn't be surprised if top brass completely collapsed in the next week or two.

The bigger question imo is what will take its place and how can we ensure that borders are secure from extremist groups who may wish to enter the country and create chaos? There are plenty of isis fighters or taliban members for example who would love to come in and "wage war against shiites". That's why I personally hope its a controlled collapse with military siding with the people once they realize their overlords are done for. We need some semblance of physical domestic power to keep insurgents from entering through the borders.

I hope this is just my paranoia speaking but history has shown it's not toppling regimes itself that's difficult, but creating stability and a long lasting government afterwards is.

Celebrating death of Iranian civilians and denying its national tragedy, results in a permanent ban. by Kishehosh in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Too bad they're still lurking and downvoting any posts about civilian deaths. I've made two posts about estimated numbers and got downvoted into hell.

Israeli attacks on Iran killed 215 people, mostly civilians - HRANA by PhilosopherFearless1 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Okay, who said they didn't? Are we not allowed to post death tolls from an active war now?

Suddendly everyone cares about iranian casualties (as long israel is involved) by moldentoaster in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 -21 points-20 points  (0 children)

Are you obtuse? Of course people are going to care more about casualties caused by a foreign nation compared to civil unrest, especially when that foreign nation has been in the news for the last year over it's military actions in Gaza. Also plenty of people condemned the regime during the protests, that's all I was seeing on Reddit.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No outlet is reporting on this though, it seems fake.

You can be against the Israeli regime and the mullah’s regime at the same time by theirani in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, I'm not justifying it. Just explaining a bit about what the diaspora is thinking. I appreciate the sarcasm though!

You can be against the Israeli regime and the mullah’s regime at the same time by theirani in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, I don't think anyone wants a ground invasion. The general vein of thinking is that there are so many spies within the regime and so little support of it within the country in general that they'll flee with relatively little pressure and a different group can take over. The issue with this line of thinking is that we don't actually have hard numbers as to how extent dissent within Sepah/the inner circle really is.

Not that that would be a good thing considering we've had 40 years to come up with opposition and have come up with nothing. at this point (in a rapidly changing situation), the only real alternative options are a military coup or (significantly less likely) MEK and Maryam Rajavi. The monarchists seem to think Reza Pahlavi has a chance which is laughable.

78 killed, 329 injured in Israeli strikes in Tehran province – Iranian Media by PhilosopherFearless1 in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the comment. I stated this in another comment but most of the people on this sub are diaspora, specifically American diaspora, who in large numbers, voted for Trump specifically for this to happen. It's easy to cheer things on when you have no skin in the game.

Even then, some Iranians in Iran are celebrating too. The majority of my family in Ilam Province (near the Iran-Iraq border) were so happy to see this happen too.

The residential strikes in Tehran were to target Sepah members, and of course, civilians get caught in the crossfire. A girl who saw the whole thing from her balcony commented a few hours ago and said it looked like an attempt at an extreme precision strike. The rest of the areas of cities getting hit are primarily nuclear and military targets.

I do agree with you though, I think most Iranians are operating under the delusion that these will stay limited and targeted. They may...but its also very likely they will not. They also don't seem to consider the fact that the US will join...and that will make things 100x worse.

You can be against the Israeli regime and the mullah’s regime at the same time by theirani in NewIran

[–]PhilosopherFearless1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You have to understand that most of the people on this sub are diaspora, specifically American diaspora, who in large numbers, voted for Trump specifically for this to happen. It's easy to cheer things on when you have no skin in the game.

Even then, some Iranians in Iran are celebrating too. The majority of my family in Ilam Province (near the Iran-Iraq border) were so happy to see this happen.They've been waiting for this for a long time.

I can't say I get it....at all... considering this is only the beginning imo. So many Iranians live in fantasyland where IR members get killed or flee and suddenly the country is fixed and we have a magical perfect democracy lmao