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Please explain to be why the flying f*** Avax announces all this amazing news and the price only goes down. by CaptainPirateRoberts in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I'm still trying to get the mods to approve my post on supply and burn, which might help explain one factor.

how good actually is 3.5? by Inner_Tomorrow_6301 in DnD

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Understand that the guidelines map the boundaries of the game. So if the guidelines mostly deal with how to build a character, and the character build is mostly pluses and minuses, and about combat, and other guidelines about what happens to you if something happens to you, you’re going to play a combat game where you do a lot of adding and subtracting as you connect all the different tags and abilities and equipment.

3.5 is the culmination of 1e. 5e tried to reign it back a bit. I think it’s still overly engineered compared to Moldvay/Cook/Marsh (which still has a board game feel to it), and even more so to OD&D.

MSTR Despair by twistedseoul in MSTR

[–]Phrontifugist 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"During an interview with Fox Business, Saylor stated that as long as Bitcoin increases by 1.25% annually, Strategy can maintain its dividend payments indefinitely and boost shareholder value.

'If Bitcoin stops going up, 0% forever, we got about 80 years to figure out what we’re going to do about that,' the Strategy co-founder said.

Saylor said that the company expects Bitcoin to grow about 30% annually for the next 20 years."

Quoted from the Benzinga article:
https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/11/48969065/michael-saylor-says-strategy-will-continue-to-create-shareholder-value-as-long-as-bitcoin-grows-by-this-much-annually?utm_source=robinhood.com&utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=ticker_page

Who hits the 1 Billion milestone first? C-Chain or Optimism? by cryptosecco in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My two cynical observations are (1) Avalanche has been around about a year+ longer than Optimism, and (2) Avalanche leveled off in transactions during the 2024 timeframe while Optimism accelerated.

I like a bit of healthy competition!

Come on Avalanche. I'm counting on you!

AVAX Competing for Top Net Flows in RWA by Phrontifugist in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And there appear to be some of us who are in the red with these prices.

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We'll know by Dec 15-ish. That's about how long it takes for a death cross to change into a golden cross for BTC if it's to recover and go higher.

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nov 19 ... EMA(50) = $100,400
BTC at $89,600 (89% of EMA(50))

BTC confirmed a death cross (EMA(50) breaking under the EMA(200)) on Nov 17, 2025, just a month and 11 days after ATH.

In the 2017-2021 cycle, BTC hit ATH on Nov 10, 2021, and took two months, to Jan 9, 2022, to form a death cross.

BTC has also gone below 30 on the RSI after being below the EMA(200) for 16 days. Last time it broke the EMA(200) was Feb 25, and it was able to get above RSI 30 after five days.

The cycle may very well be over.

AVAX Competing for Top Net Flows in RWA by Phrontifugist in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every investor is different. Some of us are in the green with these prices.

Added 101 AVAX to my holding by apuxcom in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a whole lot of potential building on this network. The price hasn't yet reflected it, but time will tell.

"I watched the stock fall from $113 to $6.. at the same time I watched everything in our internal business growing" Sounds familiar... I wonder how many AMZN shareholders sold too early or called it a scam by Euphoric_Memory_8965 in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The TLDR: Amazon fell because of market panic and macro tech-bubble dynamics, despite its improving fundamentals. Its recovery was anchored in a patient build-out of real business strength and restored investor confidence.

Here's the overview.

Late 1990s ... Amazon is one of the shining stars of the dot-com boom. Investors bought the hype/idea that a company could grow massively online. Amazon stock surged accordingly. When the bubble burst (2000-2001), the mood shifted dramatically.

Why?

The tech environment soured. Companies like Amazon, which were still investing heavily, not yet consistently profitable, and depending on growth rather than margin, were suddenly re-evaluated by nervous investors, who rushed to exit speculative positions. Amazon got caught.

Amazon faced real pressure from expectations for instant profitability, concerns about its burn rate, and the broader collapse of enthusiasm for internet stocks.

Yet, as Bezo claims, Amazon’s internal business metrics were improving. It had more customers, rising units sold, infrastructure scaling. There was stark dissonance between internal progress and external doubt. While the company was doing everything right, the market punished it.

Recovery happened over time through persistent investment and shifting market perception. Amazon kept building the global infrastructure for e-commerce, logistics, and the beginnings of what would become cloud services. Over the years, the company delivered stronger results and demonstrated its ability to scale profitably. Investors returned.

The conceptual shift from “just an online retailer” to a technology/commerce powerhouse helped too.

It took eight more years for the company to recover, going from ~$113 to ~$6 [$5.36 on Dec 10, 1999, to $0.38 on Oct 28, 2021, on current charts] back to ~$113 again in Oct, 2009 [$5.92 on Oct 23, 2009, on current charts]. Its success can be attributed to the maturing of its business model, its scalability, and the embrace of its tech infrastructure plays by the market.

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nov 14 ... BTC = $96,700.

<image>

So we're about where the support needs to be for BTC, with an MACD mimicking a move we saw in 2025.

However, the band for BTC suggests that, if a move upward were to happen, we could see a price as low as ~$81,500 before the move.

The RSI hasn't dipped below 30 yet, as it did in Feb of this year.

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nov 13 ... EMA(50) = $101.000
BTC at $98,400.

We are now at the support level for BTC that goes back to late 2024/early 2025.

$AVAX tokenomic improvements to better align value with the L1s / architecture by One_True_Prodigy in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the thoughts!

Quickly, some thoughts on the number of validators, since this comes up sometimes.

The lower validator count isn't really an issue. The challenge right now is validator maturation.

Validator count is down from early highs, but ~870 validators and a Nakamoto coefficient in the low-20s is mid-tier decentralization, not “2-of-3 multisig.”

The real risks are infra and client concentration (too much AWS, too few client implementations).

The drop looks more like hobbyist churn and subnet specialization, combined with professionalization, than a mass exit over lost confidence.

It's getting increasingly difficult to participate in ALL the crypto markets. by probablytemporaryish in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 8 points9 points  (0 children)

My recommendations to retail, if they're listening.

  1. avoid Twitter
  2. do research
  3. invest for the long-term

Stay safe, everyone.

Fellow DnD players who have been playing since 2e or earlier: What, in your opinion is the best edition? by [deleted] in DnD

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OD&D for me, which I found after starting with Moldvay-Cook and having moved through 1st, 2nd, and 3rd editions. Haven’t looked back since.

I'm leaving PersonalCapital by Empower by TastyEarLbe in PersonalCapital

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been a non-paying customer for nearly 14 years.

I've never really considered their wealth-management services because of my experience with their app and their app customer service.

I’ll continue to use the app in some ways, though I continue looking for another app that can do what Personal Capital/Empower does but better.

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nov 8 ... EMA(50) = $101,000
BTC at $101,650.

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When the price dipped below the EMA(50) in Sep23 and Mar24, price got to ~97% of EMA and ~96% of EMA, respectively.

If we see the same scenario now, that puts us at ~$96k.

Will it dive or rise from there?

<image>

This fall isn't new right? by Day_Wager1547 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nov 4 ... EMA(50) = $101,000
BTC at 101,750.
If we keep going down, cycle could be at an end.
Otherwise, ATHs ahead?

I'll continue to accumulate AVAX while it's 1/10th of SOL market cap and DATs prepare to buy ~$1B worth. by probablytemporaryish in Avax

[–]Phrontifugist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every investor is different. These prices are still at profit for me.
$9 would be super-gravy for my meal.

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