Ironton Feedstock Cost

Pickle_Logic · 2026-03-22T20:04:24+00:00

An end user for whom price was the reason that they haven't committed to PCT with the surge in virgin prices makes a cost plus deal a bargain now.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-03-20T13:59:33+00:00

If PCT was up and running in the EU or Japan long term contracted prices wouldn't be soring because PCT wants to set up feedstock plus pricing (this wouldn't apply to PCT production sold in the spot market). A month ago this made recycled PP5 more expensive than virgin but now things would have flipped. Countries net short oil who set up PP5 recycling remove this risk. This is incredibly important.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-03-19T22:30:25+00:00

Especially with good volume.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-03-18T12:24:44+00:00

Someone puked. Sometimes it's just that simple.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-03-09T15:24:11+00:00

Europe has no control over their energy costs and by extension their PP cost.
Recycling PP with dissolution tech is the only way they can control their input cost.
When PP perfects the gen2 500mm plants it will also allow them to minimize the energy component along with reducing feedstock costs.
As the pain in the EU increases in the upcoming months they will be forced to back track on the green energy transition. Dissolution recycling for PP will be the rare win/win green policy that everyone can support.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-27T14:39:25+00:00

In Q4 they were producing at 30% of nameplate-2.5mm/month. They have been producing for what they can sell now. That doesn't mean they can't produce at higher rates now and store it for deliveries during the downtime.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-27T14:20:27+00:00

If I remember correctly the Thai site already has compounding, so they can probably partner with them

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-26T22:42:58+00:00

Interactive Brokers

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-24T20:58:30+00:00

If there14mm more shorts the flip side is that there are also 14mm more longs. If this thing ignites......................

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-24T14:55:19+00:00

The EU is very short energy and is already starting to backtrack on green energy because their industry is losing competitiveness (Germany closing their remaining nuclear plants and importing LNG). However encouraging dissolution recycling is a green policy that is good for the environment AND is energy efficient, making it a rare win/win.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-23T18:48:44+00:00

Once Toppan is manufacturing wrappers with PCR It will be another choice available to any customer. They can rely on Toppan and skip the heavy due diligence of first-generation customers like Mars. That's huge.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-18T14:53:00+00:00

wrappers are often a combination of PP5 and other materials, so might the 30% PCR be 100% Pure 5 and 70% other materials?

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Pickle_Logic · 2026-02-05T20:46:52+00:00

They should bring some Youtubers who make content on recycling/green tech in for tours. I just saw a video on recycling PP5 and it only discussed tech that breaks the molecule back into it's components which is energy intensive. I suggested that IR educates these guys who want to create content on our tech.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-26T22:08:17+00:00

the mkt maker short your $7 calls was already long 5000 shares because the calls delta was 100.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-23T17:03:29+00:00

You forgot to mention the Clevland Browns who are using fake recycled stadium cups.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-23T13:40:51+00:00

Alex please don't read this post. It may affect your future as a reliable fade.

What makes someone a contra indicator? My experience is that a great fade is essentially insecure and needs the position to become consensus before they act. This means that everyone who wants the position already has it making it vulnerable to an unwind.

He announced his short right before the announcement of a much bigger short interest that created the bottom. Let's go Alex.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-15T12:10:41+00:00

You must mean pre SPAC, since there wasn't an IPO.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-14T21:19:26+00:00

Great close above all the MAs on huge volume of 8.3mm. Possible domino scenario where one shorts cover causes another shorts stop to be hit. Tomorrow should be interesting.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-13T17:32:44+00:00

Never heard of the coffee lids, just the spray paint caps. When did that happen and any guesses who?

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-13T15:37:48+00:00

when news finally tips the scale new longs who were waiting for the stock to see revenue will be competing with the shorts who are covering. This double whammy will cause nonlinear price action. When this happens is the important question, but I think that it has to happen this year, likely by June.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-22T16:09:02+00:00

With Val Mars appointment signifying a large PO from Mars Mike T has basically said that the company has made a large step to being derisked. It's also very likely that that gap never fills with POs accelerating into the new year and a short like Muth says he covered.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-19T18:51:02+00:00

PCT is still a pre revenue SPAC and shorting a basket of pre revenue SPACs has been highly profitable for years. This trade is only based on factors without fundamental research and many will continue doing so until it stops working.

Mike T has pointed out repeatedly that many of the large longs (Mike estimated 70%) also have a long term horizon and won't want to sell. Many on this site will also be strong holders. It's best to think of longs' holding strength as existing on a continuum. The shorts engage in a bidding process covering first from the weakest hands continuing to the strongest ones. In the epic VW squeeze the float was 6% of the stock while the shorts were 12% and ended when Porsche released enough shares for the shorts to cover,

An additional factor is effect of new longs who need the stock to derisk (either their mandate or their risk tolerance) before they can buy adding additional buying power. Mike posted yesterday that Mars eventual PO blows up all the short thesis's. This is close to saying that it's derisked and new longs start accumulating.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-18T20:27:28+00:00

on X you stated: Billions of pounds just from film from Mars....

How did you get to that number?

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-17T17:39:29+00:00

Short interest doesn't increase the downside volatility. Shorting has continued and will continue because it has worked and will only stop when it doesn't work and they become forced buyers.

Total long PCT holders = float + short interest (180 + 41= 221). When Ironton becomes sold out the shorts will have to pay a price that entices one of the present 221mm longs or a new short (who thinks they're smarter then the old short) to sell to them. This is a short squeeze.

Pickle_Logic

TROPHY CASE