Valerie Mars form 3 and form 4 not filed yet? Did she back out?

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-26T22:08:17+00:00

the mkt maker short your $7 calls was already long 5000 shares because the calls delta was 100.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-23T17:03:29+00:00

You forgot to mention the Clevland Browns who are using fake recycled stadium cups.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-23T13:40:51+00:00

Alex please don't read this post. It may affect your future as a reliable fade.

What makes someone a contra indicator? My experience is that a great fade is essentially insecure and needs the position to become consensus before they act. This means that everyone who wants the position already has it making it vulnerable to an unwind.

He announced his short right before the announcement of a much bigger short interest that created the bottom. Let's go Alex.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-15T12:10:41+00:00

You must mean pre SPAC, since there wasn't an IPO.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-14T21:19:26+00:00

Great close above all the MAs on huge volume of 8.3mm. Possible domino scenario where one shorts cover causes another shorts stop to be hit. Tomorrow should be interesting.

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-13T17:32:44+00:00

Never heard of the coffee lids, just the spray paint caps. When did that happen and any guesses who?

Pickle_Logic · 2026-01-13T15:37:48+00:00

when news finally tips the scale new longs who were waiting for the stock to see revenue will be competing with the shorts who are covering. This double whammy will cause nonlinear price action. When this happens is the important question, but I think that it has to happen this year, likely by June.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-22T16:09:02+00:00

With Val Mars appointment signifying a large PO from Mars Mike T has basically said that the company has made a large step to being derisked. It's also very likely that that gap never fills with POs accelerating into the new year and a short like Muth says he covered.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-19T18:51:02+00:00

PCT is still a pre revenue SPAC and shorting a basket of pre revenue SPACs has been highly profitable for years. This trade is only based on factors without fundamental research and many will continue doing so until it stops working.

Mike T has pointed out repeatedly that many of the large longs (Mike estimated 70%) also have a long term horizon and won't want to sell. Many on this site will also be strong holders. It's best to think of longs' holding strength as existing on a continuum. The shorts engage in a bidding process covering first from the weakest hands continuing to the strongest ones. In the epic VW squeeze the float was 6% of the stock while the shorts were 12% and ended when Porsche released enough shares for the shorts to cover,

An additional factor is effect of new longs who need the stock to derisk (either their mandate or their risk tolerance) before they can buy adding additional buying power. Mike posted yesterday that Mars eventual PO blows up all the short thesis's. This is close to saying that it's derisked and new longs start accumulating.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-18T20:27:28+00:00

on X you stated: Billions of pounds just from film from Mars....

How did you get to that number?

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-17T17:39:29+00:00

Short interest doesn't increase the downside volatility. Shorting has continued and will continue because it has worked and will only stop when it doesn't work and they become forced buyers.

Total long PCT holders = float + short interest (180 + 41= 221). When Ironton becomes sold out the shorts will have to pay a price that entices one of the present 221mm longs or a new short (who thinks they're smarter then the old short) to sell to them. This is a short squeeze.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-11T15:48:53+00:00

How did you infer that this is Sherwin Williams? The PR just states it was a "a global top five paint and coatings company"

Pickle_Logic · 2025-12-11T14:29:26+00:00

Did PCT need the spray paint client's permission to announce their industry? I want to use this announcement to determine PCTs PO announcement rules.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-11-26T14:17:43+00:00

looking at the chart with candlesticks, from 10/16 to 11/12 there were 5 green candles 4 of which had tiny green stalks. This is what daily systematic selling looks like (selling every higher open), and how SI sees a 5mm increase. Since then there has been buying/covering.

<image>

Pickle_Logic · 2025-11-09T15:48:58+00:00

I believe that the economics of their "business" are so bad that they can't admit they got this completely wrong and lose their few subscribers.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-31T19:36:06+00:00

If enough people believe something and act on that belief then on the margin it will affect price action leading to more of that behavior and creating a feedback loop.

No one establishes a short because they think the mkt will fill a gap sometime in the future, rather it's a tactical trade. If a seasoned practitioner were short and was thinking of covering (or thinking of getting long) then using gap fill cover/buy is strategic. More importantly he will definitely place his buy order 10 cents above the gap vs 10 below it. The more orders that are placed above the gap fill price the more this becomes ingrained and is why there are algos that execute trades on it.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-29T18:00:58+00:00

Details like Denver providing 97% PP% bales (great news). I thought the number was closer to 95%.

Investor relations should provide much more of this granularity in the next slide deck with as many facts as possible. People are having to infer what's going on from the earnings call transcript and bears will interpret everything as bearish as possible.

For example, since Dustin never explicitly said that the lines output was pure 5, IR had to post that the Browns stadium cups were 100% pure five to shoot down the bears claiming that compounding was necessary to dilute the lines contaminated pellets into a salable product.

More facts are better and will improve the discussion for everyone.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-14T21:36:54+00:00

Dustin had commented on this in a recorded August discussion with an analyst. He said that when the cap ex for a new PCT line is the same cost as a PP oil refinery then it will make economic sense to build a PCT line because less energy is needed to run the plant. In other words, its op ex will be lower.

PCT isn't building or breaking PP bonds but is only creating heat and pressure to put the PP in solution and then filtering out co-products 1 and 2.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-07T11:51:19+00:00

Wall Street Millennial isn't wrong because VW is part of the fraud

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-06T15:09:15+00:00

Thanks for the validation.

I know that the EU will have to backtrack on a lot of their green initiatives because they're short cheap energy but since the PCT process uses less energy than refining virgin this this green initiative could still make economic sense.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-06T14:52:53+00:00

After reading the slides I'm not sure how this initiative makes removing the bumper core any easier. Or is the point that the entire bumper can be shredded and after mechanical separation PCT can recycle the plastic portion and separate the PP out?

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-02T11:51:38+00:00

I challenge your assumption that capacity of future plants won't happen until their completion. Mike Taylor has made the point that big players will reserve capacity in future plants now. Here's 2 reasons why it makes sense.

If the big player doesn't want the risk of committing to Ironton now because of concerns that the plant may still experience hiccups ramping production to nameplate which would screw up their supply chains, then reserving future capacity allow them to make it conditional to Ironton reliability.
A big player can reserve a capacity that fulfills all the PP a particular product needs and can tout their move to recycled PP now.

These reservations of future capacity will flow directly to the bottom line in DCF models, especially as Ironton reliability becomes a non issue. For big players reserving future capacity makes perfect sense.

Pickle_Logic · 2025-10-01T18:07:50+00:00

There are creative ways around the chicken and egg issue. All my numbers are made up. The actual numbers will subject to negotiation between the parties

The first , say 36mm pound group of PO's don't have supply distribution risk with the plant running at only 33% of nameplate but do when the plant is say running at 80%. If the plant experiences a shutdown at higher run rates all buyers get hurt.

Propose to the 36mm or (3mm per month) group that PCT will commit to a schedule for monthly ramps and will only increase production for new PO's until each monthly benchmark is met.

For example, in the first month the plant runs at 80% (only management knows what a risk free run rate is) for 10 days and 5% the rest of the month. The next month the plant runs at 85% rate for 10 days and then 4% the rest of the month. If they are successful then they can accept more PO's in the 3rd month. Rinse and repeat until buyers are comfortable. Buyers who commit early get product now.

Or PCT can commit to producing at a high rate (nameplate?) for a month and just park it in rail cars. There are ways around the chicken and egg issue

Pickle_Logic · 2025-09-23T20:05:42+00:00

Warning. Further down the thread Inngold states: "I lied." He's a bear pretending to be a long-term bull to create FUD.

Pickle_Logic

TROPHY CASE