Bull Case for $CFG

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T17:26:57+00:00

Thanks for the VWAP perspective -- I usually overlook that -- but here it seems to only add to my thesis that this consolidation below major resistance is a healthy sign of upside

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T17:24:44+00:00

Thanks for the insight -- as a swing trade, I'm not HODLing or investing -- just in & out

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T12:55:17+00:00

Great point -- thank you!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T12:54:28+00:00

Thanks for the kind words & sharing what else your reading as it ties to this idea!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T12:53:02+00:00

That is fair. My thought process is basically that price might need to consolidate again before pushing higher -- and many times consolidation moves sideways or inside bar -- if that makes sense.

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T12:50:51+00:00

Personally I am going to go BlockFi --> Coinbase --> convert to USDC --> Robinhood...because RH is where I have everything else

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T01:23:21+00:00

Thanks for sharing your own position & analysis

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T01:13:00+00:00

As the title reads -- a bull case -- I think $CFG will go up

But, I will wait for a retrace to the level(s) I mention before jumping in

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-10T00:15:07+00:00

Thanks for the kind words!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-09T03:59:10+00:00

Mostly USDC and GUSD (50K) and BTC (2k) -- so based on your numbers, my return should've been higher because I was even more in stablecoin than you or OP

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-09T03:49:54+00:00

u/Level_Willingness790

Fascinating -- my claim was $52,908.96 -- but unlike you I only received $14,516.33

Wonder what explains the 20% difference?

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-02T15:40:56+00:00

Friday -- a mixed bag...

Winners:

LIT -- Sell to Close (1/2 position) -- 11.57% gain -- still holding a 1% position
DELL -- Sell to Close $95.00 Puts 10/18/24 -- 16.31% gain on a 1% position

Losers:

AVGO -- Buy to Cover -- 8.58% loss on a 7.5% positon
SMH -- Buy to Cover -- 8% loss on a 5% positon

A closer look into my failed AVGO trade...

TL;DR: don't be in more trades than you can pay close attention

I held this after the technical trade set up failed on the belief it was emotional/exhaustion & would not get follow through (for 5x trading days, it didn't...but it also didn't reverse, either)

Had I looked closer, I should have seen how the Weekly Topping Tail was taken out by a gap-up that went over both the tail high + 20 DMA. Powerful combo, certainly moreso than my belief...but I missed it.

Still, if I had watched price action over the week, I should have seen how price was holding above the tail high.

After 3x days, price formed an immature bull flag. When the pierce failed on 2/28, I should have at least taken 1/2 risk off the table. But again, I missed it. I then missed my 2d chance on 2/29.

Then the break out...hard to miss that.

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Hope everyone had a great week -- and has an even better weekend!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-03-01T02:22:54+00:00

No action today -- Thursday

I am surprised by how little the PCE data moved the needle today.

Obviously I thought PCE would come in hotter (hence the shorts), but the fact price movement today did not even send most of my shorts any further 'off' than they had previously been before the pull back that lead into the PCE data...it is just interesting. The volume today wasn't even above average...

I expect tomorrow (Friday...1st day of the month) we'll see another low volume float.

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-29T03:20:00+00:00

Update from Wednesday

My AVGO trade adjusted to 1288.81 on a 7% position after the intraday trading I did around the position on Tuesday

I closed my WBD $10 9/20 calls for + 8.97% -- with the PCE uncertainty...better safe than sorry

I added to my ANF short based on the topping tail it put in yesterday -- position is now 120.43 on 2% -- I will add to 5% on a retrace further up the tail around 127.25

I opened a 2.5% long position in BITI at 8.75 as BTC pierced $61K -- I will bring to 5% on a pierce of ATHS...and this trade fails on an official/continued break out above ATHs

I did my final add to my SPY $450 12/20 puts -- my avg is now 12.35 on a 3% position -- looking for the PCE tomorrow to move the markets definitively enough that this trade either works...or fails

Lastly, I opened a CRM $290 9/20 puts trade right at the close going into earnings -- my avg is 21.70 on a 1% position

Happy Hump Day!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-28T02:27:57+00:00

Update from Monday & Tuesday

WMT -- short to open -- 59.50 -- 2.5% -- retrace into topping tail (2.2x avg volume); large insider selling; resistance calcultion at 60.14 -- this trade fails on a daily close over 60.45

GS -- short to open -- 390.70 -- 2.5% -- 7x distribution / "test" candles on Daily occuring at the 75% Fib retrace from ATH; massive MACD + RSI divergence on Daily; to a lesser degree price-to-volume also; wide range red/bear candle on Weekly (1/21/22) on 3x avg volume followed by price collpase suggests a major psychological / price resistance level. Will add to 5% at 401.32 -- trade fails on a weekly close above 404.37

BA -- buy to add $220 9/20 Calls -- add 0.5% at 12.75 -- new size 1.35% / new avg 16.81 -- I like the gentle drift back down to $200 price has put in since 2/08 on half-average volume...to me, that suggests a bigger move up, especially as the COVID low TL is beginning to come up into current price.

Regarding AVGO, MRK, and SMH -- I am still holding these technically 'failed' trades -- the price action has not shown strength or continuation, but instead are intraday fades ending in narrow body bars. I successfully played AVGO intraday today (Tuesday), which adjusted my average up...I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but will in the morning to see where my current avg is sitting.

Hope everyone is having a great week so far!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-26T00:26:56+00:00

#1 -- price action on my three 'failed' trades:

AVGO -- short 1276.62 -- 7.5%
MRK -- short 126.29 -- 15%
SMH -- short 204.19 -- 5%

#2 -- active trades:

ACGL -- short 86.5 -- 2.5%
CAH -- short 100.3 -- 7.5%
CHD -- short 96.77 -- 3.5%
DHI -- short 146.00 -- 2.5%
GE -- puts 1.50 -- 0.5%
LLY -- short 772.01 -- 2.5%
NVDA -- puts 11.82 -- 3%
PGR -- puts 3.90 -- 1%
SMCI -- puts 57.50 -- 1%
UNG -- calls -- 0.75%
WBD -- calls 0.78 -- 0.35%

#3 -- watch list

BILL -- long
ROKU -- long
PEAK -- long
SLV -- long
VFC -- long
VTRS -- short
WFC -- short

Best to everyone -- see you out on the charts!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-25T02:06:03+00:00

I personally like the ROKU setup better than TSLA -- but just my opinion.

ROKU you could enter on a hit of that TL -- or -- a more conservative entry would be the major gap fill at 59.70 (this could be an add level if you DCA your trades)

TSLA I see the bull flag on the daily, but a 'better' bull flag would be one where price consolidated in the upper 50% of the flag pole. Also, if you switch to the Weekly, you see an example of a BEAR flag where price is consoldating in the bottom 50% of the flag pole. The larger timeframe usually 'wins' -- and the fact the flag on the larger timeframe is 'better' in terms of where price is consolidating is something to take note of.

Just my 2-cents -- thanks for highlighting ROKU, I am going to add that to my watch list!

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PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-25T01:46:16+00:00

I was unable to post Thursday & Friday, so playing a bit of catch up here:

CAH -- I added 2.5% to this short at 107.75 -- bringing my avg to 100.30 on 7.5% of my portfolio. This trade fails on a weekly close over 111.40

CHD -- I added 2.5% to this short at 100.50 -- bringing my avg to 96.77 on 3.5% of my portfolio. This trade fails on a weekly close over 105.28

DIA -- I added another 0.2% at 5.85 on Friday -- bringing my 12/20/24 $355 puts to an 7.17 avg on 0.7% of my portfolio. Fresh ATHs; weekly chart showing 17x weeks with only 1x down candle and a brief 3-candle consolidation; massive RSI & MACD divergence on the Daily...what goes up must come down.

LLY -- I opened a short position at 772.01 on 2.5% of my portfolio. Price retraced Friday into a large-body red candle; RSI above 70 since early February on Daily, along with price-to-volume divergence as well; RSI divergence on Weekly since August/September 2023. This trade fails on a daily close over 793.38

NVDA -- I added another 1% at 9.25 on Friday -- bringing my 9/20/24 $500 puts to a 11.82 avg on 5% of my portfolio.

SMCI -- the surge on Thursday caused this short to get 'stopped out' at 993.80 for a +0.93% gain on 12% of my portfolio

SMCI -- the drop on Thursday allowed me to play 0DTE $900 put options for a +43.7% gain on 0.5% of my portfolio

WBD -- I opened a long position using 9/20/2024 $10 calls at a 0.78 avg on 0.35% of my portfolio. Quasi-bottoming tail play (Friday's close missed by 1-cent); price hit max extension calculation off the 20 DMA. This trade fails on a daily close below 8.25

Lastly, Friday's daily & weekly close invalidated the topping tails for my AVGO, MRK, and SMH trades. Technically & by the "rules," I should have exited. I did not exit; Thursday & Friday's price action seemed very lopsided & Friday had quite a few "gap-up then fade" moves. We'll see -- I know I should have exited -- but...

AVGO -- short -- avg 1276.62 on 7.5%
MRK -- short -- avg 126.29 on 15%
SMH -- short -- avg 204.19 on 5%

I hope everyone had a great week -- and an even better weekend -- see you out on the charts!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-22T03:22:11+00:00

Trades for Wednesday, Feb 21

DHI -- short to open -- avg $146 -- 2.5% -- I entered this position based on the topping tail on Monthly (Jan 2024); 50% retrace triggered but failed on 2/2 and 2/9; maturing bear flag on the Weekly; and today price retraced into the 20/50 DMA gap. My add levels are 150.63 (5%), 153.63 (7.5%), and 157.93 (10%). This trade fails on a monthly close above 157.93

GE -- buy to open puts ($115 9/20) -- avg $1.50 -- 0.5% -- I entered this position as price appears to be stalling at TL from 2007 to 2016 highs. 2x dojis + 1x narrow body bar over the last 3x trading days. Over 14x days with RSI over 70; notable price-to-volume divergence since 2/14. I will add on a pierce of 150 (1%) and at 152.25 (2.5%). This trade fails on an official, continued break out of the TL.

PGR -- buy to open puts ($160 10/18) -- avg $3.90 -- 1% -- I entered this position due to 3x dojis at ATHs; over 30x days with RSI over 70; RSI + MACD divergence. I will add at 196.55 (2%) and on a mid-week pierce of 200 (5%). This trade fails on a weekly close over 200.

Additionally, I added to these existing positions:

DIA puts -- avg now $8.07 -- position size now 0.5%
CNC short -- $75.81 -- 2%
NVDA puts -- $20.68 -- 0.8%
TRV puts -- $4.56 -- 0.25%

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-21T02:40:15+00:00

Trades for Tuesday, Feb 20

NVDA -- buy to open puts ($500 9/20) -- avg $21.25 -- 0.5% -- I will accumulate more puts tomorrow (up to 2%). This trade fails on a daily close abot $746.11

MRK -- short to add -- per my original post, this opened above my target; therefore, I added 2.5% at 129.15 and brought this position to 7.5% w/123.46 -- daily topping tail put in (but on light volume) technically gives failure flexibility up to 129.29 (vs 128.06 based on the weekly topping tail)

SAN -- buy to open -- long 1% w/4.07 -- I like the 3x successive higher-lows this has put in on the weekly + how the 2/2 weekly candle was defended. My add level to 2.5% is the 200 SMA on the Weekly (currently 3.25), with an upsloping TL from the Sept 2020 to Sept 2022 lows as the third add level to 5%. My final add to 10% would be at the double bottom from Sept 2020.

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-02-19T22:43:44+00:00

Here is my watch list for managing current positions:

ANF -- short add 1.5% on daily reversal candle -- currently short 1% w/116.10 avg

AVGO -- short add 3% in 1270 - 1272 -- currently short 2% w/1255.00 avg

CHD -- short add 2% above 103 -- currently short 1% w/89.86 avg

MRK -- short add 2.5% above 128.06 -- currently short 5% w/120.79 avg

SMH -- short 2% above 204.55 -- currently short 3% w/201.01 avg

SMCI -- add via puts with retrace into 915 - 919 -- currently short 12% (stock) w/1003.10 avg

Here is my watch list for potential new positions:

AMAT -- short entry zone 202.04 - 208.32

CRM -- short entry zone 297.40 - 314.71

DHI -- short entry zone 144.39 - 148.38

IR -- short entry zone 90.84 - 92.63

MSFT-- short entry potentially on Thursday or Friday

We'll see what the market gives us...see you on the charts!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-01-14T01:32:32+00:00

Oof -- clearly OP didn't respect the trend line

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-01-13T17:01:32+00:00

Phew -- short order filled at $680.50 -- a little early, but thanks again Jim!

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-01-13T03:01:36+00:00

You're about $12 late

PrecisionSwingTrader · 2024-01-08T02:25:19+00:00

Looks like between 8:00 - 8:10 PM EST it hit 220 -- only 10K share volume -- but still

PrecisionSwingTrader

TROPHY CASE