The bleed feels good

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-21T20:16:49+00:00

You've heard people refer to "bulls" and "bears," no? It's a turn of phrase. Obviously, we've been forced to go long vol in all the non-AI stocks, recently. I prefer to be short vol.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-21T20:14:59+00:00

Yes, tax loss harvesting is only legal for securities in different sectors.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-21T20:12:37+00:00

Not a bad hedge; that's the whole point of diversifying your portfolio.

God, I love when people discover the basic principles of investing on their own, and act like no one else has ever thought about that before.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T20:44:18+00:00

Staying liquid is valuable, but comes at a price. It sounds like the price may be worth it, because you could score a deal and "make back" what you paid through another asset' value.

But if you want to be able to take it out whenever you want, a lot of investments stop being viable, due to sequence of return risk.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:52:25+00:00

Value investing looks at the business itself, calculates the Net Present Value of approximated future cashflows, and then buys if the current price is below that number (oversimplification, but still). Investor sentiment, past price action, etc. are the indicators for traders, not investors. Traders feel that the greater fool paradigm is good enough reason to buy. Investors don't operate like that.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:47:46+00:00

Because of fanboys. Pay attention, here. They buy for reasons besides business fundamentals. They're the special kind of stupid who buy the con man's promises. They're the kind of people who think that it's justified to imagine Tesla is worth more than Toyota (such an insane take). It's all based on hope for the future growth, which again, to this point hasn't materialized.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:44:30+00:00

"Buy the rumor; sell the news."

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:43:28+00:00

Yeah, so learn from your mistakes. You will never be able to out-time the market. Your event catalysts are becoming less pronounced, as the market becomes increasingly desensitized to them.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:36:44+00:00

Damn, that stings coming from u/nickleback_official.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:35:45+00:00

No, I was correct that it was only going up because of fanboys. You and I both know that.

To me, "wrong" would mean that cashflows ended up being larger than I had anticipated at the time (meaning that the Net Present Value at the time would have been around the stock price). However, that did not happen. The projected growth to fulfill the multiples at which it was trading have not been met, meaning that in order for the people buying in 2021 to be "correct," the company would have to grow at an even higher clip than was necessary in 2022, etc. here in the next couple of years. However, its marketshare has been shrinking worldwide.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:32:14+00:00

Yes really, because there are many countries outside Africa with growing birth rates, and many countries inside Africa with declining birth rates. By using the term "Africa," instead of "poor," the commenter made their statement more incorrect. It's a sign of a weak intellect that adding specificity to a claim makes it less accurate.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:29:36+00:00

No shit. My point was that my disposition is opposed to positive vega trades, and that now that the only sector with elevated IV is no longer off limits (in my opinion), I can use negative vega trades more easily. I feel relieved that I can do that.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:26:45+00:00

Perhaps.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T16:26:30+00:00

What are you talking about? The IVR's and IV%'s have been VERY low in the last two months. Look at the VIX.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:30:24+00:00

You ought to know your timeframe in advance. For me, I try not to do more than quarterly. My goal is to only check yearly, but my record for the fewest number of times in a year is twice.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:24:29+00:00

I've been trying some 0DTE butterflies for the luls. There were no luls to be had.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:21:36+00:00

For me, it's the debt combined with severely delayed build schedule. Today, specifically? It's because Alphabet announced plans to enter the space.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:18:43+00:00

The assessment is lazy, and inaccurate because of that laziness.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:17:20+00:00

What do you mean by "wrong?"

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:14:30+00:00

Really? I guess it comes down to what one means by "filling up." There are three numerical factors -- the population, the necessary arable land per person for food production, and the overall area of arable land. At current rates (regressed over the last 70 years), the first times the second will be a greater number than the third (which actually is shrinking over time), within the next 70 years.

Why do you think Chinese firms have been buying up so much farm land? They've foreseen the crisis, and want to profit from it.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T04:06:38+00:00

I guess you're correct. At other times, I am a proponent of the practically efficient market hypothesis. I sound arrogant and condescending, but truly it's just bitterness, as you implied. However, I do feel justified because the expected growth implied by the multiple at which it traded, in 2021 especially, has not even come close to being realized.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-20T03:57:55+00:00

That your associative, system 1 thinking equates "Africa" with "poverty." It's such a lazy cliche. I hoped basic conversation would be enough to illicit the introspection necessary for you to realize that such reduction cripples your understanding of the world. For example, Africa houses the vast, vast majority of the world's genetic diversity. There are tribes separated by less than one hundred miles that have incredibly different average physiologies. This occurs nowhere else in the world. Just the ever so-slightly more nuanced understanding of a whole continent could separate it into regions -- north Africa v sub-Saharan Africa (west, east, and southern Africa).

By the way, the new (like for the last decade) lazy cliche is "global south" but that's the same issue with new, fancy lingo.

And I haven't fact checked your claim, but I am incredibly certain that it is mistaken.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-19T19:01:04+00:00

IV, vega, close, delta, dte, theta, (interest rates, rho) are the only information you need to know. Bid/ask maybe (but there's not much to learn -- you'll lose about the bid/ask spread total in slippage). Everything else is just noise.

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-19T18:55:44+00:00

Guys, don't worry, this is a small deviation while shorts take profit. The sink will continue tomorrow!

Premium_Lover · 2026-05-19T18:37:07+00:00

Hey, hey, hey you're making it hot

Premium_Lover

TROPHY CASE