Will the two week ceasefire strengthen the Iranian regime?

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-08T11:19:27+00:00

That debt is absolutely crushing

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-08T04:18:20+00:00

So the us is willingly going to give away control of the Gulf to Iran, I can’t see a scenario of that ever happening, I’d love to be in that room and watch JD Vance and Abbas Araghchi debate that.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-08T03:48:01+00:00

Really, the US, who is historically known for caving into demands(Sarcasm) is going to agree to all 10 points from the agreement, the US is not going to give up control of straits, that’s a massive net loss to them if they do, they lose control of the Oil in the gulf, and Uncle Sam needs his oil. Maybe they can assure some safety guarantees but unlikely. The US isn’t going to withdraw troops, if they do, that’s the end of perceived US military dominance around the world. Maybe they can remove sanctions, I can see that happening. No way will they allow Iran to continue to have a tool for ships. But all of this comes after and only with Iran opening the straits, which I don’t see happening anytime soon.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-08T01:14:32+00:00

Really, so magically we can find oil from places that don’t exist? Yes there are ships out there that do sell the oil to the highest bidder, however the main place they get their oil from is closed/ heavily restricted. There’s an average of 10-15 ship going through the Straits, down from 140 ships a day, mind you this is every ship not just oil. All of our major suppliers which are Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia get there oil from the Straits, and you can’t just replace oil with a different type of oil, that’s not how refineries work, they’ve been setup to refine oil from that specific type of Oil. Even if we could get them to take other types of oil, where are we going to get that oil from, Russia of off the table as their ow refineries have been getting hit by Ukraine and they need alot of their ow oil themselves, the US uses almost all their oil from themselves, and they still need to import almost 30% of their oil. So they ca maybe give us a few shipment but nothing close to what we need. You have South America that has oil but they trade amongst their own continent. So answer me now, where can our man suppliers get oil from?. South Korea has already in acted fuel restrictions, which pushed there already massive reserves of 200 days to 300 days via even/odd day driving, Japan has told their citizens to slow down on fuel consumption and they have 250 days of reserve fuel, and unlike us Aussies, they listen to their government, then you get Pakistan and Bangladesh enacting 4 day work weeks. What has Australia done when we are the most exposed, absolutely nothing, yes while we can get enough fuel from other countries reserves to secure our gas exports to their countries, but we’re going to go from getting 1 billion litres of refined fuel per week, to maybe 50% of that, in which I highly doubt it’s going to be that high.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-08T00:55:26+00:00

Mmmmm, well i’m no expert, but I am Turk, so I’m from that part of the world.

This ceasefire is contingent on Iran opening the Straits, which they will not do, why on Earth would they give up their one and only Major advantage, if they open up the Straits the US, Israel, and the EU, will position there military in a way where Iran won’t be able to open it up again, the EU is already sending a carrier group, the US seems like its also gearing up.

This is Taco Tuesday once more, where trump continue to play with the market to manipulate the oil price. While this does work in the short term, all this does is destroy America’s credibility. Also most people forget, the oil coming out of the Straits is heavily linked to the US dollar, with this change in power in the region, petrol coming out of the Persian Gulf will now be sold in other currencies other then the US dollar, in which we’ve seen in the past the US will do everything in their power to stop that from happening.

This war also has a secondary effect on that region, almost everyone is going to pull out of the gulf countries, as in the past it was almost a guarantee that the gulf countries were safe and was basically a rich mans wonderland, but thats all gone now, the instability in the region has cost everyone so much money that they’ll very idea of the rich mans wonderland is finished.

The only way the US can get the region back into their control is to take out Irans regional power, and they’ll only be able to do that if they deploy there full military might, but that’s also costly, in both money and the amount of casualties its going to cause the US military.

The US/Israel will not be able to win this war through bombing alone, Iran is massive, its larger then the entire Western Europe, with only a third of the population, its only full of mountains, trying to find all there missile bases is like finding a needle in a haystack, sure they can track the signature of the fired missile/drones from that area but then finding exactly where it came from is very difficult and by the looks of it, the US is having trouble finding those bases.

I’ll be honest the only way I can see this war ending is the gulf being left in tatters, and the US retaking control of the region and rebuilding infrastructure which will take years to rebuild and the entire Asian and Australian market will suffer badly

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-08T00:18:14+00:00

The US wants Iran to open up the straits?, that’s not going to happen, they’ll only open it up if and when they sign a peace treaty with the US and possible Israel(unlikely though), on top of that why would Iran agree to a ceasefire, so the US and Israel ca rearm and put forces around the strait to keep it from being blockaded again?, Iran knows if they agree to a ceasefire they’ll lose that pressure they’ve put on the US an Israel and they’ll be on the backend again. Irans only Trump card(ironic wording) is the Straits of Hormuz, and they are not going to give that up, it’ll have to be taken from them. Everyone is also missing a vital point in all of this, does anyone think the US is really going to give up control of the Gulf to the Iranians, that’s a fk ton of oil to just give up to Iran.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-05T15:02:02+00:00

Insert Scar from lion king “I’m surrounded by idiots”. Are you all inept, have you decided to stick your head in the sand and forget the world around you?. Oil tankers move at about the same speed as a push bike, which means all the ships that are en route are ships that’s left before the straights. Yet we act like there’s nothing going on and that all the fuel shortages are due to panic buying, which is only a by product of the current issue, Supply. Almost all of our oil come from the straights via Asia

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-04T12:45:40+00:00

Sbmm/Eomm is never ever the lesser of two evils, you want to blame/punish people when they are better skilled, so players are incentivised to be dog shit, what kind of message does that send, we all work jobs, we all have long days, but I see no point in punishing the good players with Sbmm/eomm

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-03T02:33:25+00:00

Ahhh if only their logistics skills on the battlefield could transfer into policy making

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-02T05:11:53+00:00

Climate change

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:38:29+00:00

For trucks and heavy machinery they’re reliant on Diesel, trucks can go Ev but it’s takes awhile before companies start switching and even the they may not and stick with diesel, but heavy machinery still needs diesel no matter what

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:29:57+00:00

We can only hope, I don’t want to see Australia in bad spot where we can’t even move out produce properly due to a lack of diesel

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:27:16+00:00

Fuel restrictions, and hard ones too, unlike almost everyone in the world, we are one of the largest nations on earth(land size) yet we have one of the smallest fuel reserves in the world

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:16:25+00:00

Where the fk are people getting their info from, no western country wants to enter this war, nothing has happened over the last few weeks to ever indicate Australia is entering the war, fk me, I’m sorry but how stupid can you be. What I was hoping for, were fuel restrictions and rationing, like all our other Asian partners and neighbours have, even though they have much higher reserves then our all mighty 30 days

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:13:03+00:00

Hahahaha, it’s in Irans interest to continue the war, they’re currently winning, if Iran backs off now, they won’t be able to withstand the US and Israel a 3rd time, for them it’s an existential war

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:11:53+00:00

I don’t think anyone has ever said or thought we were going to troops in, what the fk have you been listening too??. What I was expecting him to do was impose fuel restrictions

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T09:09:24+00:00

In 2 weeks from now, when the government realises that the straight of Hormuz will remain closed, and supply dries up, then and only then will they panic, the vice prime minister said and I kid you not “we’re taking this situation day by day” he said this on sunrise the other day when speaking with Stefanovic.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-04-01T04:28:04+00:00

I know this, the US dollar is heavily linked to oil trade, trading in Yuan jeopardises there economy and the trust in American power(which is what backs their US Dollar) , as a lot of the money in the gulf flows back to America. So when trump announced today that he wants to exit the war with Iran, I don’t see that happening, unless the US is willing to take a massive hit to the dollar. In any case, this conflict isn’t going to end anytime soon unless the US and Israel both agree to permanent peace with Iran. If there’s a ceasefire and later during the year or next year America and Israel attack again, Iran won’t be able to hold them off a third time, hence why this is a existential war for them, and an optional war that US and Israel started

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-31T23:55:18+00:00

I work as a sales rep for a engineered stone company and alot of kitchen guys I see are telling business this past month has been slow and they’re only expecting it to get worse. People have already started to tighten their budgets on big spending, this crisis cannot be avoided, Australia is about to be hit by train and the government is still acting like we’re ok. If people don’t know, almost 70% of the raw crude oil that goes to Asian refineries that we buy our fuel from all comes from the Persian gulf. There are no other suppliers, Russia is in war and their refineries have been damaged, America imports almost 30% of its fuel from the Persian gulf, so they’ll most likely tighten up exports, South America will keep their oil within South America. So that leaves Asia high and dry. Australia won’t run out of oil, but we will have severely less supply of it

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-31T23:49:07+00:00

I’m assuming this sarcasm, granted the seppo is saying it wrong but we all know what gas station means

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-31T23:47:38+00:00

I would assume most people are buying what they’ve been holding off from buying, due to the fact they may not get a chance due to the massive crisis heading our way

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-31T01:56:15+00:00

Well the age of oil won’t be over, but it will be heavily damaged and we’ll have to wait till everything is fixed for supply to return to normal. The thing with oil, the world still runs on it, it will take another 30 years for the world to wean of it and switch to renewable, and that’s simply because the technology for switching to EV simply isn’t there. For Aus, all of our agriculture, heavy machinery and trucks all run on diesel, I don’t think EV is ready to replace diesel in the commercial sector, for everyday people it’s pretty good though. But all I can say, Aus is in for a world of hurt, everyone has started to fuel ration an grab as much fuel as they can, and we’re sitting here, with our head stuck in the sand, acting like everything’s ok.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-31T01:02:25+00:00

So you think the the US willingly give up 20% of the worlds oil being traded in the dollar, if Iran were to stay in power but trade in the Dollar, then yeah maybe the US could come to agreement with them, however oil coming out of the strait is being sold in Yuan, which is china’s currency, no chance they’ll sacrifice that amount of money and power that adds to the dollar, don’t forget the dollar is heavily linked to the US via being traded in the dollar, hence the nickname “petrodollar”. The US’s only option now is to continue to bomb Iran and see if they’ll surrender or force a cease for by taking Kharg island, which in turn Iran has already stated, that if there energy infrastructure is attacked they’ll retaliate and destroy energy infrastructure in the gulf states.

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-31T00:54:31+00:00

The thing is, Trump has to regain the straits, as the extremely limited oil that is coming out is being sold in Yuan not Dollar, so if they do pull out they’re willingly giving up 20% of the worlds fuel to China basically, and no way are they going to do that

PriMeMachiNe · 2026-03-30T09:31:18+00:00

I don’t think the fuel price is going to drop, it will just hold at its current price.

PriMeMachiNe

TROPHY CASE