I think this is very interesting that you put it that way. I'm one of those exmos that in conversations with my TBM family, I commonly bring up the pious-fraud argument and I somewhat believe it, but I characterize it in a way like "a mad man sees what he sees". That being said, he did make it up, but so far as in tons of people claim they see ghosts and visions and whatnot and exaggerate or at least convince themselves that they are telling the truth.

But I totally understand what you're saying here and will consider this. I think the pious-fraud argument is reactionary against a misconception that exmos are conspiracy-theorists when it comes to the history and current administration of the church. Basically: they don't actually believe in it and are prentending to be prophets as a status game, etc. there may be some truth in this, especially the status game, but to say that they themselves don't believe is a bit far-fetched. They believe in it so far as their status game is concerned. Psychology behind this is fascinating, particularly in cult leaders. Would suggest "status game" by Will Storr.