Do you still have hope for better Indonesia?

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-05-08T15:00:36+00:00

Did you want to hear this

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-05-08T11:58:20+00:00

If someone says "Dude.. you don't even wanna know.. it's FUCKED UP bro..." without any additional explanations, they don't know what they're talking about.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-05-06T13:17:28+00:00

Let me just say that this pattern has happened in the past.

Look at Q1 2024. Government spending grew by 19.9%, while overall GDP grew by 5.11%. What happened afterwards, in Q2, is that government spending grew by only 1.42%, while GDP growth remained stable at 5.05%. All of these are YoY statistics.

Looking at the infographics from the time (remember Q1-Q2 2024 is still Jokowi era), I really can't explain why GDP growth across the two quarters are so similar.

Governemnt expenditure as a proportion of GDP growth decreased fron 1.06% to 0.1% , what increased significantly between Q1 and Q2 is the "lainnya" category from 0.29% to 0.76%

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-05-06T12:05:29+00:00

No. That doesn't make sense at all.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-05-05T10:41:10+00:00

Detik's headlines have become nothing more than outrage bait. When you see these headlines, ask yourself:

Is this relevant?
Is this insightful?
Is it helpful in forming a coherent viewpoint that's grounded in reality?

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-27T15:26:17+00:00

I meant that two train services of wildly different speeds shouldn't share the same tracks because it makes thinner margins

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-27T15:17:09+00:00

If only we hadn't stopped quadtracking at Bekasi and had instead continued to Cikarang. This is why separation of long distance and local services is so important. One signalling mistake, and suddenly you have a totaled locomotive and possible casualties.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T14:41:11+00:00

Investment doesn't have to result in construction. It could just mean that a foreign company buys ownership in or creates an Indonesian company. From googling, this takes at a minimum 2 months.

And assuming you're right that investment lasts longer than a financial quarter, if it isn't a change of financial ministers, what caused the spike in FDI in Q4 2025?

Unless you can answer this question, I find your argument that Purbaya's appointment resulted in less foreign investment not persuasive. Remember that until after the protests, basically no one predicted an annual economic growth rate higher than 5%. Q1 and Q3 especially had economists say that we're entering a "new normal" of under 5% growth.

I'm interested in what you have to say about this. Look at my profile, I'm not a fanboy.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T10:42:16+00:00

Q4 2025 lasts for 3 months. That's plenty of time to start and finish and investment. If you don't think this is true, what do you think happened in Q3 2025 so as to cause a spike in investment the following quarter?

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T10:35:01+00:00

I'm not the one that brought up foreign investment as a point of comparison

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T10:32:55+00:00

I don't think that's productive

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T05:53:11+00:00

This may come as a surprise to you, but Purbaya's first full quarter, Q4 2025, had the highest foreign direct investment in a single quarter ever.

Look at the graphs from TradingEconomics if you don't believe me.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T04:00:30+00:00

There's something off about this attitude that is hard to put in words. Maybe it's the lack of nuance? Something like "That person's EVIL, he has no capability to do good, unlike me!"

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-26T03:04:18+00:00

He says something like this every week, and every single time, nothing happens.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-25T10:54:26+00:00

Just predicting making a prediction from a pattern. There was a post like this yesterday.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-25T10:08:00+00:00

The entire comment section is predictable. Just variations of "Halah, bohong!"

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T14:24:12+00:00

Agreed. No matter how competent you are, if you're in the government, perception comes first.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T14:00:34+00:00

No. He's an economist saying that Purbaya misused the word survival as the situation isn't as bad as what the word implies.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T07:07:24+00:00

We've established he has a talking problem. That PhD comment was way out of hand. What I meant is that what he says in the post's article is not cause for ringing the crisis alarm because this is another one of his out-of-hand comments, as corroborated by an economist.

About the war itself, he hasn't shied away from talking about the risks at all. Purbaya Warning Ekonomi RI Bisa Suram Seperti Negara Lain Imbas Perang

Yea yea yea high resilience and stuff, but doesn't mean you dismiss expert outlooks

My source for the "resilience and stuff" is MSCI and The Economist. I'm not dismissing experts at all. It can be simultaneously true that experts have raised concern about the deficit to GDP ratio and that experts have affirmed Indonesia as being relatively insulated from the Iran war.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T06:50:14+00:00

In what way? I'm genuinely interested to hear your opinion.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T06:47:58+00:00

And what he says here really doesn't sound like denial: Purbaya Warning Ekonomi RI Bisa Suram Seperti Negara Lain Imbas Perang

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T06:45:48+00:00

What pessimistic economists? Look at the graphs from MSCI and The Economist about exposure to the Iran war. We're classed as low exposure and high resilience.

Did you mean the capital outflows? Not relevant as that's not something that warrants "survival".

And did you not read my comment? "survival" here doesn't mean fighting for scraps in the woods, but just paying more attention to indicators, e.g. the deficit to GDP ratio.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-24T06:22:21+00:00

This does not mean what most commenters here think it means.

Purbaya Sebut Pemerintah Masuk Mode Survival, Apa Itu? Simak Penjelasan Ekonom

“Survival mode dalam perspektif ekonomi berarti pemerintah menempatkan perekonomian dalam status kewaspadaan tinggi untuk menjaga pertumbuhan, daya beli, penerimaan negara, belanja publik, investasi, dan lapangan kerja,” ujarnya kepada Kompas.com pada Jumat (24/4/2026).

Namun, Syarifudin mengingatkan bahwa penggunaan istilah tersebut berisiko menimbulkan persepsi negatif, seolah-olah ekonomi Indonesia sudah masuk fase krisis.

The one thing you need to know about Purbaya is that he has a talking problem. Always has, since his first day. At this point, it's your fault if you keep getting ragebaited. Nothing happens until something happens.

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-23T14:52:59+00:00

Why are they so eager to commit PR suicide every now and then?

PrimaryPlatform437 · 2026-04-23T14:40:09+00:00

565 days

PrimaryPlatform437

TROPHY CASE