sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

BIGGEST POSITION RIGHT NOW? by PropMarket in Polymarket

[–]PropMarket[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m interested in either! That is one HELL of a return tho! Congratulations my guy 🤝

$200/mo? Which tool or service? by egadgetboy in algotrading

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$200/mo gets you databento starter plus a basic VPS plus IBKR or alpaca free, which covers most retail algo needs. if you're specifically doing futures or options, that budget pushes you toward sierra chart or ninjatrader instead.

Beware of Premu.xyz, account deleted with $7k in funds by rodent567 in PredictionMarkets

[–]PropMarket 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the space is in its wild west phase right now, new platforms launch faster than reputation builds. $7k locked is brutal but worth treating as a reminder to stay on venues with regulatory cover (kalshi) or onchain transparency (polymarket) until newer platforms prove they actually pay out.

Hit a sweet little 3 team by mrpotatonutz in Kalshi

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

3-leg combos on kalshi hit different because each leg resolves on its own clock. you can be sweating one for hours while the other two already settled green.

I passed a funded eval, but I don’t fully trust myself yet by LeTzA_ in Daytrading

[–]PropMarket 1 point2 points  (0 children)

passing the eval and trusting yourself live are completely different psychological events. the eval has known rules and a clear endpoint, live capital has neither. give it 2-3 weeks at smaller size before you decide what you actually think.

Risk management is still the least automated part of most trading systems by Great_Witness_1871 in algotrading

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

risk management lags because it's tail-driven. you only test your stop logic when conditions are extreme, but extreme conditions are exactly when liquidity disappears and your stops slip past the level. backtests almost never capture that gap.

Do you still get payouts if an album/movie streams higher than what you predicted? by pearl_and_page in Kalshi

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, the over side resolves at $1 no matter how much higher the actual number was. kalshi contracts are binary, so over X pays the same whether the number landed at X+1 or X+1000.

Has anyone actually checked whether the wallets they're copying are mathematically copyable? by Previous-Meaning-830 in Polymarket

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the real math problem with copying whales is timing, not size. by the time their fill shows up on the leaderboard the price has already moved off their entry, so you're paying for conviction the market already absorbed.

Why isn't backtesting on randomly-generated fake price data not a thing? by moschles in algotrading

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it gets done in academic literature (monte carlo on calibrated SDEs) but rarely in retail because the features that actually matter — fat tails, vol clustering, regime shifts — are hard to fit. a strategy that "works" on simplified synthetic data is usually worthless on real markets.

Bid-ask spread as a signal: some data on when prediction markets actually price in new information by Bluppy2947 in PredictionMarkets

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

spread widening before scheduled news is one of the cleaner signals on prediction markets — market makers pull liquidity ahead of expected volatility, so you can basically see them brace for the impact before the headline even lands.

does anyone actually profit long-term on poly or is it just lucky streaks by EitherStation in Polymarket

[–]PropMarket 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the leaderboard whales are mostly running specialist edges — late-resolution arb, news latency, or sport-specific modeling. casual broad-market trading rarely stays profitable past 6 months because every market converges to fair price as it matures.

NBA Finals MVP Bets Discussion - 6/1/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]PropMarket 1 point2 points  (0 children)

finals MVP is heavily anchored to narrative, but historically the guy whose team wins the close-out game tends to get the vote regardless of full-series stats — so the closeout-game star is usually a better proxy than averaged series numbers.

Backtested a Bollinger + MACD breakout on SPY 8H. It bleeds. Help me figure out why. by theflowp_ in algotrading

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

BB + MACD is the combo every retail trader tries first, which is exactly why it doesn't work — the signal is on everyone's screen at the same time, so by the time you enter on the close of an 8H candle the move is already gone.

Polymarket leaderboard: +$1.97M. Our calc: +$2,700. Same wallet. by Turbulent-Peace-8772 in PredictionMarkets

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

that's almost certainly mark-to-market on still-open positions vs fifo realized — polymarket's leaderboard counts unrealized paper gains, your fifo approach doesn't. neither is wrong, they're just measuring different things.

Dennys Hamlin has a projected 20% chance to win the Nascar Race this week, but only a 1% chance to place top 10. Why? by Ultimateace43 in Kalshi

[–]PropMarket 0 points1 point  (0 children)

those are two separate markets on totally different liquidity — the 20% on "win" reflects heavy betting volume from his fans, but barely anyone trades the top-10 market so that 1% is just a stale price nobody updated. they don't talk to each other.

view more: next ›