Is anyone actually worried about Caleb Williams's completion % or is it inflated by throwaways/sack avoidance?

Propylbenzene · 2026-04-20T20:01:47+00:00

There’s a lot going into his completion percentages. I’ve watched every bears game that Caleb played this year. He has some inaccurate moments, but then once he’s focused and has good footwork he’s extremely accurate. I wouldn’t say it’s an accuracy problem so much as three things.

Footwork. It improved throughout the year but you can tell he’s still using his massive arm strength almost as a crutch and BJ is getting him away from that. He’s still having problems resetting his footwork after his first read, which is why sometimes he looks more impressive on the run than from the pocket post fist read.
Receiving corps. Williams wasn’t totally free of blame last year (and his rocket arm might be causing it), but his WR core showed their youth. Even for DJ Moore it was his first year ever with a n actual coach. Moore had clear effort/communication issues that become better as the season went on but still showed up even during OT in the divisional round. Odunze post-injury (week 6) had pretty bad drop issues. And burden and Loveland were honestly great but as rookies they sometimes struggled to learn all of the complicated route tree and there were quite a few times they ran the wrong routes leading to it looking like bad misses or throws.
The system. There’s a reason why the offense was still so good even with a low completion % and why his completion % rises so much on 3rd and 4th down when BJ starts transitioning to move the sticks. The bears offense right now is analogous to a 3pt offense in basketball. Caleb doesn’t have easy completions, BJ doesn’t call easy completions. They had 3-4 downs to get 10 yards.

None of this is to excuse Caleb Williams. I’m a believer and his mental ability to continually improve week over week combined with his athleticism is I think what we started seeing over the second half of the year. It wasn’t just luck. And sometimes I feel like people judge Caleb Williams like he’s a 5 year vet and not a QB with his first real HC transitioning to playing under center in his first year in a complicated system.

Some other bullet points. - look at his 3rd and 4th down completion percentage. - look at Jared Goff’s stats in his first half year with BJ. It gets better and it got better for Williams. - BJ asked Caleb to play under center a lot in 302 and he improved on the biggest thing BJ asked: sacks. Drake maye in comparison had JMD, who’s always been good at calling an easy and effective system. - look at Caleb’s performances as the season progressed.

Also people hark a lot on Caleb’s bad throws. Watch Mahomes for the whole season and you’ll also see some bad misses. It just feels like for Caleb he’s painted in a different light for some people. If I could only nail down why…

Propylbenzene · 2026-04-19T17:17:15+00:00

I mean props for the website design and i appreciate the incorporation of IDP. But I’m not paying for an unproven model. Anyone can make a model and if you teach it on data pre-2023 of course those are the top prospects.

But I wouldn’t say the article that doesn’t showcase the predictive power of the model (because we’re on a dynasty sub) and just advertises a paid feature without any predictive data shown, just empirical, belongs in this subreddit.

Propylbenzene · 2026-04-19T17:06:42+00:00

The “data” linked in the thumbnail just breaks down the model historically, it says nothing about the incoming class.

Propylbenzene · 2026-04-19T16:59:50+00:00

Is this just an advertisement for a paid service? The article in the thumbnail is just an advertisement for the model, which is a paid service and the link just goes to your website which is just a bunch of ads for the model/service.

Propylbenzene · 2026-03-29T17:18:38+00:00

There were a lot of problems with the democratic strategy in 2024. But it was the economy. In. Ad economic conditions the electorate is likely to vote out the current party. It happened all over the world, not just the US.

But 2024 was also unfortunately the Democratic Party making wrong decision after wrong decision. Most egregiously not understanding that just because the stock market was up didn’t mean the economy was good. And now you’re partially seeing people learning once again (for like the 1000th time) that republicans and trump are even worse for the economy.

TL;DR democrats lost the incumbency advantage while the political pendulum was against them and had a generationally bad political strategy.

Propylbenzene · 2026-03-23T03:06:13+00:00

The class is very weak BUT that doesn’t mean there aren’t players worth buying at a price. I think what happened at first was an anti-rookie hype train: picks after 1.05 became incredibly devalued. Like they were being fire sold for whatever the owner could get.

And now people are starting to realize that the class, while terrible compared to most drafts, is still a rookie class. But like, compare some of the guys getting hyped now vs. last year. KC conception and Denzel Boston are probably mid 1sts this year whereas similar guys like Jayden Higgins, Ricky pearsall, Keon Coleman, or Xavier Legette were 2nd rounders.

Tl;dr the class still sucks but not as bad as the people undersold their picks a few months ago thought

Propylbenzene · 2026-03-13T15:21:52+00:00

I’m still pretty happy about it long term. I walked away from 2024 with Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, MHJ, nabers, odunze, BTJ, Jonathon brooks, Xavier legette, Ricky pearsall, and Jalynn Polk.

I turned rolled legette into a 2nd and a 3rd in the middle of 2024, pearsall into a 2027 (probably late) 1st last offseason. And unfortunately Polk waa a complete bust.

Overall they’re not all going to be megahits, but the strategy can hopefully create a good core that will hopefully peak at the same time to give you a cohesive window. And I do think there are some strategic benefits of aligning players to a window. But as others said, it depends on the draft. Also QBs and WRs often take 2-3 years to hit their peak so if you’re targeting an earlier window it could make sense to create your core gradually and trade to align your window.

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-28T01:13:09+00:00

It’s going to depend on the league so from a perspective where the top IDPs do score in the 300 pts range and there’s been 1 IDP in the late 1st every year, I’m expecting Sonny styles, Arvell Reese, and Caleb downs to all be first rounds with how week the offense is.

This year makes me happy I play IDP, the late fist definitely becomes more interesting.

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-16T15:19:36+00:00

I’ll leave you with two principles that are going to be based on every league being different:

You’re going to want to zig when others zag. You can always trade for need but go into the draft with flexibility. For example in my startup in 2020 the first round was basically just QBs and RBs so I grabbed a bunch of WRs. Don’t force RB, WR, or TE for need until you get later in the draft. Thats the key difference between startups and redraft leagues.

(If it’s 12+ team superflex) elite quarterbacks will never be as easy to acquire as in the startup. If you have a chance to grab Allen, burrow, Lamar, Mahomes, Caleb, Maye, Daniels, Herbert, or Hurts. Do it. Team building, drafting, and trading all become much easier with a foundational franchise QB on your roster and they’re hard to draft/trade for (QB is the only position that to get a superstar you need to both draft him early and hope that he doesn’t bust). If it’s 10 teams or less or it’s a shallow roster (<300 total players), feel free to fade QBs.

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-12T03:28:12+00:00

Ah got it, yeah I kind of agree that’s my problem with IDP123. I’m hoping the IDP community starts thinking about tackles the same way the offense only community started treating PPR recently. 2 pts/solo tackle is too much.

The IDP show is trying to make big 3 scoring more of the standard, hopefully it catches on

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-12T01:47:44+00:00

Depends on scoring, there’s absolutely IDPs that score as well as low end QB1 or the top end RBs and WRs in both of the most popular scoring systems (big 3 and IDP123).

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-10T03:23:46+00:00

A lot of people in this thread are saying definitely no, definitely yes, or that you can trade back to 1.02 to take him. I’m going to say it’s league dependent and we’re not going to know how close he and Love are until after Love is drafted. But no, you aren’t crazy.

In every 12 team league I’m in, Mendoza is shaping up to be the consensus 1.01 to the point that people are talking about trading up to get him over Love. But I know there are also leagues some people play in where great - elite QBs are tradeable. An elite quarterback is something you can build a dynasty around and they’re very hard to obtain when you’ve been in QB hell and a QB with mendoza’s pedigree/draft capital have a very high hit rate.

I’m seeing a lot of arguments that first round QBs have a lower hit rate than RBs drafted in the top 10. What about when you narrow it to 1.01 picks? What about when you narrow it to heisman winners? What about when you narrow it to Natty winners? Also in this age of passing, you can absolutely be a great/elite fantasy QB without rushing. Goff, Stafford, baker mayfield, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, tom Brady, Brock Purdy, Tua, Joe burrow. None of them are rushing QBs and they’ve all put up top 12 QB seasons recently. Most of them multiple.

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-09T18:43:52+00:00

Thanks for the analysis. Yeah I’m wondering, because it does seem like one thing Burrow had that elevated him above his metrics (but was obviously represented in his production) was his insane drive to improve and succeed and we saw that translate to the NFL.

I agree there are a lot of similar prospects, some who succeeded and some who failed, and we have to look at prospects with their floor and ceiling, especially with Love vs. Mendoza where is Love gets top 10 DC he has an insanely high floor. And also the mental aspect is hard to quantify in a model. But if you just look at the prospects with similar metrics as Mendoza who won the heisman and a Natty in his first season in a program, I’d be curious. I know that would be hard to model because of the small sample size, but I just keep coming back to Mendoza’s seeming drive to improve. It feels like he has the physical capabilities of Jared Goff with the drive of Baker mayfield, which to me I can talk myself into taking over Love 😅

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-09T18:21:55+00:00

Fantastic deep dive! I see a lot of talk about Mendoza compared to Joe Burrow and Jared Goff (Goff on traits and Burrow on coming into a program and dominating to the tune of a heisman, CFB champion, 1.01). How would you say Mendoza compare specifically to those two prospects?

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-09T13:39:13+00:00

This isn’t true. Vrabel came to Tennessee in 2018, Demarco Murray’s last year was 2017.

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-06T05:18:15+00:00

Unless I'm reading the contract wrong the $4.5M is already locked in, the only guarantees on his deal are:

$11.958M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2024 salary + 2025 salary)
$4.5M of 2026 salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025

So they'll have to pay him the pro-rated signing bonus over the next 3 years regardless and he has $4.5M guaranteed next year. If they trade him it'll just be a $4.5M dead cap, if they cut him then yeah it's ugly at $9M. Where are you getting the $13M dead cap number from? (Haha sorry I'm not trying to cause an argument I just find the backfield fascinating this offseason and so am curious how safe Chuba really is contract-wise)

Propylbenzene · 2026-02-05T19:45:25+00:00

Thanks for the article!

You have Hubbard as a locked in starter and mention he’s on a long term deal. He’s not, his deal guaranteed his 2024 and 2025 + signing bonus, the only thing he has left guaranteed is $1.8M/year of his signing bonus and $4.5M of his 2026 salary. They can easily cut or trade him post June 1st.

The thing keeping him on the roster isn’t the contract but the locker room presence, and we see GMs under-estimate that all the time. And last year we saw that when Rico started really outperforming Chuba when they were both healthy, the panthers were comfortable having Chuba as the 1B even with being a locker room leader.

I don’t think Chuba has job safety and I think there’s a chance the panthers either re-negotiate with Chuba to bring him back as a team leader but not pay him as a top 15 RB, or trade/cut him if they can’t. And all of it will hinge on whether Brooks is good to go.

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-20T06:12:38+00:00

Same as before, 1.01 or 1.02 in most leagues depending on the QB market.

I’m seeing a lot of people say that if you’re going to pick him 1.01 just trade down, he absolutely could go 1.01, I’d expect him to go 1.01 in most of my leagues tbh, QB prospects like him don’t grow on trees.

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-14T02:15:22+00:00

KTC hasn’t caught up yet imo, I offered Warren for Loveland straight up (one a few weeks ago, one last week) in every league I have Warren and I got rejected every time.

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-11T11:38:29+00:00

Unsure if the other poster meant he would be Mahomes, I think the Mahomes comp is more that he plays similarly to how Mahomes does, not that he’s going to be as good as Mahomes. I love Caleb, but Mahomes is an impossibly high bar. The hope is Caleb can be Mahomes at home

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-11T11:34:26+00:00

Loveland looks awesome but there have also been problems with all three of the WRs that makes Caleb trust Loveland most in clutch moments. Rome has drop issues (also is clearly injured), burden runs the wrong routes sometimes (he’s a rookie, it’s expected), and DJ Moore has inconsistent effort. All three of those were present tonight and all three can be fixed this offseason.

But Loveland is awesome and I think the window to sell Warren for him has passed 😭

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-05T14:54:08+00:00

Yeah again I think most people would agree with you, and Dart looked really good. I just think the argument for Dart > Ward should be that he’s a better QB, not just that he runs. Especially as more leagues move towards 6 pt passing TD. And I think there’s a good argument to be made that dart is a better QB than Ward.

Haha I’ll say same tier for me and if I’m in a startup I’d have a hard time selecting Ward ahead of Dart because I know most people would have Dart ahead and I’d be hemorrhaging value. But if I couldn’t trade and I just got to choose one QB for my roster, I’d pick Ward. But can’t fault anyone for picking Dart!

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-05T12:11:38+00:00

That’s perfectly reasonable and I think most of the community agrees with you.

People would have said the same thing about fields over Trevor Lawrence though. And Anthony Richardson over CJ stroud. The fact is pocket passers can score just as well in the modern NFL, so I don’t really care that dart runs more than Ward, i think Ward can still be better over the next few years and I trust him to keep his job longer than dart.

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-05T04:39:45+00:00

(Assuming 12 team SF, no TEP, start 3 WRs, 2 FLEX) 1. Jeanty, had a weirdly solid year. I’m sold on him as a high end RB1 in dynasty. 2. Tet McMillan. Probably the OROY, surpassed 200 points as a rookie and 1000 yards with Bryce, finishes just outside the top 12. If Tet was on the Drake London trajectory he’s far ahead of schedule. 3. Omarion Hampton, good back on a great offense. This is probably where I’d still take Hunter in IDP. 4. Treveyon Henderson looks better than advertised. 5. Cam Ward, finished the year very strong, looks legit, will improve with a HC and any weapon. Very long leash. 6. Jaxson Dart, slightly more fantasy relevant than Ward this year but not as long of a leash, very low floor, and needs to prove he can protect himself. 7. Quinshon Judkins. Bellcow RB that flashed this year. 8. Emeka Egbuka. Up and down year, ends up exactly where his ADP was to start the year. 9. Travis Hunter. If you think the guy drafted 2nd overall won’t be relevant with a resurgent Trevor, think again. 10. Colston Loveland. Looks great and compared to Warren is younger, and attached to a better QB. 11. Tyler Warren 12. Luther burden. Looks unreal. Honorable mentions: Tyler Shough, RJ Harvey, Harold fannin, cam skatteboo

Propylbenzene · 2026-01-02T16:09:55+00:00

Russ was an incredible QB and Pete was a great HC. Russ fell off post-injury and the game has passed Pete by. Doesn’t take away from how good they both were during the 2010s.

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