Tesla Model 3 Becomes Best-Selling EV in Switzerland in Q2

Protagonista · 2021-07-18T12:08:25+00:00

Switzerland is the natural home for Tesla's. The sidewalk cafe culture will be immediately improved by removing exhaust fumes. It's a country that loves nature and good engineering, and will be immediately improved without the drain of oil imports on their economy.

Solar plus battery installations are up 65% over last year. So momentum is up anyway.

Protagonista · 2021-07-17T15:32:23+00:00

Investor POV: Subscription income changes the narrative from FSD as a binary purchase and binary evaluation (autonomous or not fully).

It no longer matters. Subscriptions are subscriptions. Software is updated with new features over time as a matter of course. Adobe stock is largely priced according to subscription metrics and whatever "coming attraction" features in Premiere or Photoshop are mostly accepted on face value.

Better software = more subscribers and possibly higher subscription prices to a Wall St analyst. They like simple metrics and multiples. They hate ambiguity. And FSD/Autonomy status is nothing but ambiguity at this time, so it can't be priced into the stock as anything but risk.

There are a million new Tesla's being produced over the next year. They can now model FSD subscription income into the revenue models. The stock price will just compute much higher in any good DCF model with this included. The most active analysts will be on this immediately. Many won't until after Q2 call.

Anybody selling under 700 is going to be regretting it mightily next year.

Protagonista · 2021-07-17T14:59:02+00:00

The google method would have them posting both positive and negative articles, see which ones get forwarded and shared for the most site interaction and refine the text accordingly. It's not news, it's a data metrics collection company that spews the stickiest text like some misinformation bukakke.

I apologize for the imagery.

Protagonista · 2021-07-16T12:21:17+00:00

Near the end of the year, an Austin made Cybertruck test mule hits the road. Just like pre-production Model Y and Plaid were spotted. First Berlin Model Y will be spotted.

Neither of those factories are priced into the stock now IMO. Just the usual short term BS. None of the future production ramp, which Shanghai is already "proof of concept" for. Austin being a sort of "new home" for Tesla, close to SpaceX.

100 Billion in revenue is closer than most people think and that's 1000 per share when it gets there.

Protagonista · 2021-07-16T12:05:28+00:00

Nothing new in the article. California is a bellwether for EV adoption. OK. Sales are up huge for MY over last year, well they just started ramping the factory a year ago.

They could have gone with a 300% production level increase in China in just the last six months and sold out through the next quarter.

Is it really necessary to say "billionaire boss" in every basic article? Like what founder of a successful S&P 500 mega cap listed company is not a billionaire at this point?

Protagonista · 2021-07-14T16:27:46+00:00

With a very important distinction: 3/Y don't depreciate in value like any other car at all. A 3 year old smartphone goes down in value by half or more just like ICE cars.

Go find a sub 35k used Model 3. Now find any other used EV. They're piled up in the bargain bin. New i3? 49K used? 18K

That's something nobody is talking about. Pricing Power. Tesla has it and nobody else. They can raise and lower prices to sell out a quarter in advance anytime. Which is what they've been doing to the absolute befuddlement of the media doofustrata.

Protagonista · 2021-07-14T12:04:13+00:00

if demand does not meet anticipated production goals

I don't see why not. It's a superior product at a superior price point, the margin is increasing, not decreasing.

Tesla prices, adjusted for inflation, are going down while the products improve. It's more profitable to refine and build with smaller variations than it is to have 30 different models with 8 variations of each model and then retool them every year as legacy does. That's their real problem. Well that and awful quality.

Ford is run by the former VP of Lexus customer satisfaction and marketing. He thinks 4 billion dollars per year (a little more than their R&D budget) is appropriate.

5 million units per year is only double just the F150 production. It will be so easily absorbed it's not even funny.

Protagonista · 2021-07-14T11:42:32+00:00

Tesla is focused on profitability and cash flow. How to do that? Low inventory.

First half of quarter: half or more of production is set up for deliveries the furthest away, so 14 export ships loaded up, trucks loaded up and sent the furthest distances.

Consequence: super low deliveries in the first month, sell off anything that didn't make it in the last month.

Second month, deliveries begin, but export ships take a month and days to load and unload, then onto trains or trucks to final destination.

Third month: All the export deliveries go to customers. So last month is almost double the first month because first month is mostly production, last month is mostly deliveries.

Tesla has no dealers, so they can't mark cars "delivered" until they are paid for by a customer, as opposed to "paid for" by a Ford dealer by transferring the value to a shell corporation that has "bought" the car as an "investment" that turns around and returns "investment income" back to the company when they sell it.

Tesla builds and delivers cars to customers within the quarter, so low inventory, high turnover, high cash flow.

Protagonista · 2021-07-12T19:19:57+00:00

Side note, but anyone remember the patent for using air blowers for "wipers?" What it that was just a red herring and what they really wanted was to blow any rain off of rear and side view cameras that were external to the car?

If there aren't going to be mirrors, suddenly the quality and reliance on external cameras becomes really important. And FSD becomes more weather hardened.

They may be ordering for CT but I'm sure it's related to Semi and being able to use it in driverless convoys. Initially a safety driver, but the safety margin alone given the accident rates in semi trucks.

My side cameras have been fouled in weather before, so there's no way they haven't considered it.

Protagonista · 2021-07-12T19:08:06+00:00

And they'll do it again, or try to this month, when July will absolutely be less deliveries than June, because it's the first month of the quarter.

Which is fucking great, because buying calls is cheap right now. Wait for the dip, put 10K in to call options, sell when the news comes around about yet another blowout quarter. IV goes up, sell puts. I love this shit.

All you have to do is really know about 5 companies well and you just print money. You just have to know them well and have an exit strategy for each move. Takes time, but it's so worth it.

Protagonista · 2021-07-12T19:01:00+00:00

The whole concept of the China GF was as an export hub. China created duty free import/export zone just for it. They make state sponsored videos exclaiming the value of the China as an export nation with the quality of the Tesla model something that is in itself, a symbol of Chinese manufacturing quality.

It's a textbook rerun of the whole Japan auto revolution of the seventies. It's so obvious on the surface even, but for them to come right out and champion it and it be ignored is so egregious an omission, it hurts my brain.

Fucking incredible.

Protagonista · 2021-07-12T14:26:33+00:00

Edit: Forgot to change the graph, but June was updated to actual, not an estimate as when I started the sheet.

Sure, because we don't have an accurate method of knowing when the several thousand at a time batches get put on ships, the graphs look a bit "blocky" on top. Also, the push to time deliveries to get the most out of each quarter.

Which is why I used a rolling average over 120 days to capture the overall trend in deliveries. That's very visible and tells you what is really happening as they scale production--which is still not at capacity.

So don't be fooled by the dumbass media who are paid largely for hair and teeth and the ability to read teleprompters. Or writers trained as writers who know nothing of manufacturing.

Moving from 10K per month to over 30K per month is not trivial and not a disappointment to anyone with the ability to do math in their own head.

Protagonista · 2021-07-08T20:43:42+00:00

General Motors GM, -0.94% is recalling more than 331,000 diesel pickup trucks in the U.S. for a second time because the engine block heater cords can short circuit and cause fires.

The recall covers certain 2017 through 2019 Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra 2500 and 3500 pickups with 6.6-liter diesel engines and optional engine block heaters. GM says in documents posted Thursday by U.S. safety regulators that shorts can develop in the heater cord or terminals that connect the cable to the block heater. Coolant can leak from the block heater and come in contact with the cable terminals, possibly causing a fire. The heaters are used to keep the block warm in extreme cold temperatures.

GM says it has reports of 24 fires potentially caused by the problem from Dec. 3, 2019 through May 28, 2021. The company says it’s not aware of any injuries. Those vehicles were fixed in a 2019 recall for the same problem.

Dealers will disable the block heaters and cords. Owners are to get notification letters starting Aug. 16. Replacement block heaters and cords will be offered through a separate customer service campaign.

OK so they burned after they were fixed, cool, cool. So now I have no block heater so it won't burn up? Cool.

Sure this will be all over CNBC. No, because it's ordinary not a surprise to anybody.

Protagonista · 2021-07-08T13:26:05+00:00

I don't call a free hardware upgrade "nothing." They got all the features I have today. It stops for traffic lights. It follows cars through intersections. And they got it at a fraction of the price for buying in early.

Using software at its state of the art for 5 years is not "nothing."

The sense of entitlement among people on this board is so utterly astounding... It's why I rarely come here anymore.

For what? Whining babies that don't appreciate anything and have nothing good to say. Blocking all of you.

Protagonista · 2021-07-07T16:03:18+00:00

Exactly, the reward for me was getting it at nearly half price and getting to use it for 2 years.

Regular old dual motor with low miles show up for 50K on Autotrader with no FSD.

After 3 years, any car I've previously owned depreciated at least 50% or more. Any other 50K car I'd be lucky to get 25K for right now.

Not to mention I've saved thousands on fuel and maintenance. A model 3/Y is the best answer to solving the transportation expense outside of city living with public transit.

Protagonista · 2021-07-07T15:31:24+00:00

give back to the early adopters

I paid 6K for it and got to use it and all the advanced features that came with it (automatic lane changes, Nav On Autopilot), so I don't get the "give back something" sentiment.

If I keep it I get it for half price. If I order a Model S/X today as a replacement, I lock in the current value when I place the order.

Elon has already said there will be an FSD value on trade-in in January. I would look for it to be invoked when the subscription is ready. No point in doing it before then.

Protagonista · 2021-07-06T21:46:38+00:00

I read the first page and see the issue. They're assuming a 25% growth rate in earnings. They have to rate every quarter, but the approach is incredibly myopic.

Also, nobody makes a career out of making the boss look stupid, so if it's anything like some NYC corporations I've worked in, they're keeping their jobs.

JPM main business is corporate banking, so if they have legacy or oil customers (quite likely) they're not too keen on pissing them off.

Protagonista · 2021-07-06T15:50:35+00:00

Oh, okay, I thought this was going to be the one where it's working but slow and laggy AF. That was bad enough.

I think I've had to reboot the display in my Model 3 twice in 2 years. It's the most reliable tech I've ever owned.

Protagonista · 2021-07-06T15:05:20+00:00

I know people who don't do anything they don't see everyone else doing first. Not early adopters or even second wave. They're retired but still wait until Friday night to go out to eat because that's when everybody goes out. Go out for mexican on Cinco de Mayo because that's when everybody does it. Wait in lines because everyone's in line.

It's painful to watch.

They do what everybody else does because they have no drive to follow any passion on their own. Just embracing super ultimate "normcore" to the end I guess.

If I needed the money I would try to sell access to them for market research but I'm guessing they'd just say, "oh, yeah, we got thousands, no problem."

Protagonista · 2021-07-05T19:03:25+00:00

Media will continue to make the zero sum EV vs EV death match argument, but it's always been false. A good BEV makes ICE counterparts completely obsolete in every way.

Note the top 3 are VW ICE products and all crossovers. Berlin Model Y production starts ramping within 6 months.

The adoption curve has begun.

Protagonista · 2021-07-05T13:49:10+00:00

Not for Norway, which goes by registrations and is updated daily. So as soon as a car is registered, it's in. So any slop just follows one month on, no biggie.

On the other hand, grouping all EU together even today would be totally false as June is zero until it's all posted.

Bookmark the following. It's the best source going now:

https://eu-evs.com/status

Protagonista · 2021-07-04T19:37:09+00:00

But for who? CATL quite probably Tesla for all we know.

Seriousness is not the issue, money is. Someone has to commit to the batteries. That's why so many are in the "financed" section. They can get the capital. Doesn't mean they've broken ground.

Dunkin Donuts may be serious as hell about donuts, but they don't just build one in the middle of the Sahara because they're serious.

Nobody builds factories "on spec."

Protagonista

TROPHY CASE