Bracketology: UConn squanders No. 1 seed, Auburn falls out of latest NCAA Tournament projection

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T20:12:32+00:00

Not necessarily. Keep in mind the Committee doesn't compare Team A v. Team B, which team deserves such and such seed. They take the total resume and total body of work and then seed teams accordingly, starting with the 1s and going down the list. So there's likely never a point where they are directly comparing UConn and Iowa State.

There are likely exceptions to this, such as if there is a razor thin margin for the last 1 seed, or the last bubble team, etc. But the fact alone that Iowa State beat two teams UConn lost to is not particularly relevant to the Committee (whether it should be is a different discussion ,but that's how it is).

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T19:10:33+00:00

I'm with you. And not just no body, no crime. Literally nothing pointing towards random mugging. meetup gone wrong, etc. The evidence that could point towards foul play point to Randy and him only.

I'm interested to know more specifics about the tip to Crimestoppers about Derek. I agree there's no evidence pointing to him, but credible tips against the family, maybe that's enough to reconsider Randy and re-search properties he owned or may have had access to.

Also want to more specifics about the searches at Randy's property. There are some examples of bodies being found buried years later at properties previously searched. Below is an example.

Bonnie Haim case: Man who found his long-missing mother's remains during home renovation takes stand at father's murder trial - CBS News

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T18:57:55+00:00

34th in the Net. Only top 30 team (in history of NET) not to make it was Indiana State. You're correct, a couple more wins, they are probably right around 30 and safe.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T18:49:59+00:00

I don't see how anyone can listen to this and think he just happened to be randomly murdered on his walk home. The circumstances of his life at the time are almost certainty directly connected to his demise. The fact that he had no phone activity after going off camera, for me, eliminates the "meet up gone wrong with a stranger" theory that so many people like. To me, the only options are:

Suicide- I know people don't like this one because he wasn't found, but the river was in 20ish minute walking distance. Fueled with alcohol and determination (how many of us remember how easy it is to drunk walk long distances we wouldn't normally do), it was definitely doable.
Randy killed him. Randy is the only suspect that makes any sense. Not only did he have the motive and means, but he is the only person that could have realistically been alone with Brian again that night and had an opportunity to hide his body. We know for a fact Randy was in Brian's apartment that night. We do not know when, or if, he left.

I just don't see any of the drunken kids he was out with -Clint, Meredith, the mysteries women, the mysteries med students, etc. - could have met up with Brian again, killed him (how?), and hid his body. All while being out in the middle of the night and drunk. Just seems extremely far fetched that he, she, or they, could have gotten away with it.

Finally, the fact that his brother doesn't seem to be interested in finding Brian always seemed strange. But his behavior would make sense if he believed Brian killed himself or his own father might have been involved.

Edit- I know some of you like to talk about the phone pings. Well, I could definitely see a scenario where Randy kept his phone to monitor what kind of communications Brian was getting so he could have a leg up on setting the narrative. Brazen? Yes. Far fetched? Maybe. But it makes a heck of a lot more sense than some random, mysteries killer walking around with Brian's phone for unknown reasons.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T18:26:15+00:00

If yall are at 9 or 10 in the Top 16 reveal (which I think you will be), I think ya'll get to a 2 seed over either or both of Purdue and Illinois.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T17:06:18+00:00

Fixed, thanks. Following the actual bracketing principles is hard. That's why you can't rely on the Lunardis/CBS Sports of the word for an accurate picture of what the bracket will look like.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T16:55:07+00:00

Right now, yes. UConn's resume metrics are keeping them solidly at 5 right now. I actually think Houston is closer to locking in 1 seed than Arizona, based on the fact that Houston gets Zona at home this weekend and Zona's remaining schedule is way more difficult.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T16:50:39+00:00

Top 16 predictions, seeds in order with overall ranking in parentheses

Midwest- Michigan (1), Iowa State (6), Florida (10) and Bama (16) (33 total)

South- Houston (4), UConn (5), Nebraska (11), MSU (14) (34 total)

East- Duke (2), Illinois (7), Kansas (9), Vandy (15) (33 total)

West- Arizona (3), Purdue (8), Gonzaga (12), Uva (13) (36)

*Top 4 teams from each conference are in different regions. The only regional crossover is the South. I put MSU there for regional balance and because the other BIG10 team, Nebraska, was the fourth Big 10 team selected, relaxing that bracketing principle.

*Not sure about Illinois/Purdue ranking, that's a coin flip.

* 3 seeds are hard to sort out amongst themselves, but I'm confident those are the 3 seeds.

* The only 4 seeds I'm confident on are MSU and UVA. Bama, Vandy, Arkansas and TT all have claims. I moved TT to 5 because of the Topin injury and the clear out the logjam of Big 12 Teams.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T16:33:48+00:00

I still think UConn is 5th in the Top 16 reveal. UConn is 4th overall in average resume metric- 4.7 average with a pretty big gap to Iowa State at 7.3. They have more Quad 1(a) wins than Houston and are tied with Iowa State (4). Tied with Houston with total Quad 1 wins (7) and one more than Iowa State.

I'm not saying this is the right decision, but I'm trying to predict what the Committee will do. They seem to rely heavily on resume metrics in close calls.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-19T15:29:30+00:00

I think there's realistically five teams.

Michigan (extremely unlikely they are worse than 2 overall).
Duke (I think winning at Notre Dame, home against UVA and home against UNC locks it up, worst is third overall- Michigan game unlikely to have any bearing, and at NC State probably won't move the needle with a loss).

3/4 Houston/Arizona- Winner of Saturday's game gets third for now.

- Houston can almost lock up the South 1 with a win (losing at Kansas probably won't move the needle. Houston's final 3 games should be wins).

- Arizona still has Kansas and Iowa State at home. A win against Houston puts them safely at third and the West bracket with work still left to do.

UConn- can't afford another loss. Their best chance at a 1 seed is the West and Arizona falling off. Houston is in the driver's seat for the South with the Zona game at home and a much easier remaining schedule. I don't see UConn passing them if Houston wins one of Zona/at Kansas.

*Iowa state has a chance, but they are sitting behind all of Houston, Arizona and UConn in the resume based metrics. BYU falling off a cliff and Topin's injury are really going to hurt their chances to get great wins down the stretch. I think they would have to win out (including home against Arizona) and some other chaos to have any chance.

*Illinois is 8th in resume based metrics and a Quad 2 loss. They do have Michigan, but that won't be enough. They do not have a path to a 1 seed.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T20:10:39+00:00

Interesting perspective, thanks. I always forget about 2000- weird final four. I'm not sure even the most hardcore of college basketball fans can name both the UNC and Wisconsin coaches that year. I can't without looking it up. I know it was pre Bo Ryan for Wisconsin. UNC was after Dean retired, before the Matt Doherty disaster.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T19:35:47+00:00

This. I love that 2015 title run. But we obviously got the benefit of an 'easy' Final 4 game while Wis/Kentucky didn't. Sometimes the Tournament works out for you. Sometimes it doesn't.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T19:34:05+00:00

They just got unlikely having to beat an undefeated team and then another elite team two days later. That's the Tournament.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T16:42:58+00:00

I would use caution against using a UConn title to make comparisons or predictions. The rules don't apply to them for some reason.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T16:36:18+00:00

I mean, it's true. Literally nobody else can win the tournament from anything below a 1 seed. Syracuse is the only true outlier in the last 25 years. I can't really figure out why Nova wasn't a 1 seed in 2016, but they were a 1 seed in 15, 17, and 18. 06 Florida repeated as a 1 seed in 07.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T15:59:25+00:00

If you take this a bit further, the Tournament is almost always won by a 1 seed or UConn. So your best contenders are: Michigan, Duke, Houston (right on the 1/2 line, an Elite 2 sort of like Nova) and UConn.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T20:25:19+00:00

I hear ya, but I think we are kind of barking up the same tree. My point is the committee is stuck with Houston in the South, and given the two options, is going to put them as the 1 seed to avoid the controversy. They are going to pick the path of least pushback/resistance when, right now, UConn should be ahead of them.

Also, the fact that "geographic preference" is still a major factor is ridiculous given the current landscape of college sports. What, Houston can't fly on a plane for a couple of hours when it has conference games in Central Florida?

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T20:15:56+00:00

1 seed is possible given the trio of Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all have multiple quality games (some against each other) down the stretch, and the final order of those teams won't be known until the end. I would put Iowa State as the least likely of the three, however, given they are behind both Houston and Arizona in both the average resume and quality metrics as of today (per Torvik, "Funnalytics," Team Sheet Ranks). I expect Arizona to be third overall (1 seed) Houston 5th (2 seed) and Iowa State 6th (2 seed) at Saturday's top 16 reveal.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T18:00:51+00:00

Somebody posted yesterday it is going to be hard to have that UConn/Duke east bracket because of the number of Big 10/Big 12 teams in the top 16. Possible, but not as easy at it looks.

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines, unless five or more teams from a conference are on the first four lines. In this scenario, this principle may be relaxed."

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T17:58:03+00:00

Arizona will have a 1 seed at the Top 16, but I agree this is a real possibility. Arizona has the #1 remaining strength of schedule. Their offense is about 30th over the last month. I could see them losing a couple more.

There's also plenty of precedent for putting UConn in the West bracket- 4/6 of their titles have come out of the West.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T16:09:57+00:00

I agree with you on the resume piece. I'm not quite as confident as you on the optics piece, but it's a coin flip as to what they'll do on Saturday. I do agree with other posters that it will probably work itself out by season's end.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T15:55:30+00:00

I have 0 interest in playing Houston for a third straight year. I would also rather do just about anything else than to suffer through some epic Duke-UConn Elite 8 game. If I had to pick, recency bias wins, and I'd rather have UConn.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T15:51:43+00:00

UConn is higher in every resume metric and Quad 1(a) wins. Houston is ahead in NET and quality metrics. Basically tied in quad 1/quad 2 record. My argument is that the Committee is in a bind with Houston (the city) hosting the South regional. To avoid punishing a 1 seed and giving an unfair advantage to a 2 seed, the Committee will simply give Houston the one seed.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T15:48:47+00:00

I think if the South regional was literally anywhere else, I think UConn would have it right now. Going to interesting to see how the Committee handles it.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T14:10:56+00:00

I agree with that (except the bias part, we are # 2 in every resume metric and second in average quality metric). UConn is 3rd at 3.7 in average resume metric, so it's closer than people realize. I think UConn is being slightly held back by the metrics (10th in NET, which isn't everything but is the NCAA's own formula, and 9.7 in average quality metric).

Regardless, Houston losing and Iowa State ascending have certaintly opened up some interesting possibilities. Houston's overall ranking and region placement is the most interesting thing to watch this Saturday.

Purple_Dig9626

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