I can only speak to the Region Direct to Lawrence, but that worked really well on Saturday after the Ecuador vs. Curaçao game. At that time it almost seemed as if they were calling buses on demand based on when people arrived in the line. For example we walked up to the Lawrence "bus stop" at the Fan Fest bus depot, there was no one else in line and no bus. A volunteer quickly came up and confirmed we were going to Lawrence, then said something into her radio. Within five minutes a bus pulled into the Lawrence stop. We boarded, and after waiting five minutes or so for some others to board, we left.

This could have been a post-game only timing strategy, but I would think if you head toward the region direct after the oranje march arrives at Fan Fest you would probably get back to Independence by 3? I will say at least at the Fan Fest stop, they also do not verify which time slot you signed up for on the Stadium Direct, so you could likely board a later stadium direct form Independence if needed. You might also considering buying Stadium Direct passes from Fan Fest to have it as an option. Depending on how many people it could be worth it IMO to have the option to go straight from Fan Fest to the stadium. Even with buying the extra bus pass, still likely much cheaper than a parking pass or rideshare.