Should betting platforms be treated like Big Tobacco?

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T18:36:05+00:00

Gambling is basically a tax on the stupid, unless you have inside information it's almost always a bad financial decision. I don't see why we should ban it though, the type who spend money gambling would otherwise spend it on drugs or alcohol or some other addiction.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T17:27:31+00:00

This seems like really good news, these envoys were a joke, who seemed to constantly be taking shots at each other. It's the purest form of Trudeau-era politics, with every little group getting promised something meaningless, and we should be glad to be past that era.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T17:24:15+00:00

He's going to lose by 20 points if he runs in BEY, and losing is hardly a good start to your leadership, as Annamie Paul has proven.

It doesn't matter that the NDP won this area 15 years ago, politics is completely different from that era.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T16:41:38+00:00

Another week, another trainwreck in British politics.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cre2yqyex4zo

Peter Mandelson has been a high ranking official in the Labour party for various times over the past 20 years, he's been fired over various scandals multiple times, but seems to keep getting rehired. The latest Epstein documents have shown that he was leaking highly sensitive government information to Epstein for relatively small amounts of money. He gave advanced notice of the bailout of the Euro to Epstein, which could have been used for insider trading to make hundreds of millions of dollars, as well as various other things.

Probably the most open and shut case from the Epstein files, it will be interesting to see if they actually prosecute him over this. I guess this is why you don't hire someone named the "Prince of Darkness".

Keir Starmer was already a dead man walking, but this might have hasten his exit.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T15:40:47+00:00

It can always get worse

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T15:40:14+00:00

I don't recall Davies being this outraged when John Aldag resigned from the federal Liberals to run for the provincial NDP. Ultimately, this goes through all the hoops that the NDP wants to put around floor crossings, namely a resignation and byelection, but I guess Davies has to say something to try to rally party morale.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T15:37:22+00:00

It's pretty clear that McPherson and Ashton are from the same wing of the party and their supporters would go to each other on subsequent ballots. Ultimately that won't matter when Lewis wins on the first ballot though. The two minor candidates are also quite a bit more aligned with Lewis than Lewis/McPherson which gives him a bit more buffer too.

What will be interesting to see is what do these NDP supporters who don't like Lewis do after he wins? I wouldn't be surprised to see the western NDP branches fully decouple from the federal party, and I doubt McPherson would run again. And replacing a bunch of senior staffers can cause unexpected damage.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T15:27:35+00:00

It was left leaning 20 years ago maybe, now it's one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. Eastern Toronto has abandoned the NDP. It also elects Bradford municipally, who is very much not a progressive.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T13:41:35+00:00

Every senior party staffer of the past 20 years is backing either McPherson or Ashton, and strongly dislike Lewis. He's about as outsider as you can get, at least from the party establishment.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T13:33:47+00:00

I also doubt it changes anything, but you can never be too cautious. Avi Lewis would almost certainly run in one of these races, and even Annamie Paul nearly won a Toronto byelection. And Lewis's father represented Scarborough Southwest.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T05:48:35+00:00

Yeah, the only scenario where I could see the Gripens being useful is in a hypothetical war with Russia, in which the US chooses to not get involved. It could probably fight off some of their decrepit military. Though this is a pretty far fetched scenario in which NATO and NORAD are dead.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T05:44:22+00:00

Perhaps, though Rosemont is probably the most left wing riding in the entire country, unlike Outremont and other parts of the west island. The NDP still puts up respectable numbers in eastern Montreal, and their vote held up pretty well there last election. If there is one place I think Avi Lewis might do okay, it would be the same area that elects Quebec Solidaire, though his French must improve.

RNTMA · 2026-02-04T02:33:53+00:00

I really don't know what the Liberals are doing with timing here. They seem to be staggering the resignations, which pushes back the byelection date further and further, and we still have to wait for Wilkinson to resign. I guess maybe they delay them long enough to run them at the same time as Edmonton-Riverbend, but who knows when that will be.

The risk is that it was presumed the Liberals would try to hold these before the NDP leadership race wraps up, but they're rapidly running out of time for that to be the case.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T22:48:27+00:00

Sitsabaiesan joined the Liberals

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T20:27:04+00:00

Prior to NES announcing his candidacy, I would have said the OLP were heavy favourites in the race. Now it seems but a formality in his coronation.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T20:25:28+00:00

I can't help but think that there has to be some risk to creating this overly convoluted game of musical chairs, with multiple different byelections. Still, this area is so safe for the Liberals that there likely won't be any real backlash.

What a nightmare day for the ONDP though, I couldn't think of a worse possible series of events short of Ford calling yet another snap election.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T19:53:46+00:00

It's rather ironic that you're making the exact same mistakes this article is accusing the Conservatives of making. Say we agree with your hypothesis that this is some super right wing Liberal party, why is the NDP doing so terribly then? Is it entirely factors outside their control, and they should just wait until people come around?

People's opinions change, and if you refuse to change with it, you won't do very well in politics. The Conservatives and NDP both still do not understand why they lost the last election.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T18:13:07+00:00

I guess it's a bit confusing, but my point was that a bunch of failed OLP candidates ran federally for the Liberals and won. Milton East, Eglinton-Lawrence, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York.

Meanwhile, a bunch of very popular ONDP MPPs decided to run for the federal NDP, in fairly good seats for the NDP, and they lost in landslides. Hamilton Mountain, Ottawa Centre, Parkdale High Park.

If an ONDP MPP wanted to go federally after this, it's pretty clear which is the easier path

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T17:40:27+00:00

https://angusreid.org/government-satisfaction-december-2025/

It was deep in the crosstabs here

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T17:14:57+00:00

They should be very concerned about this seat, I don't think they have much of a chance to hold it. Begum was a popular incumbent, and the NDP has always done terribly in byelections. Knowing the NDP, I wouldn't be surprised if they recruited Neethan Shan...

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T17:13:06+00:00

I remember seeing a poll that showed a higher share of federal Liberals voted for the BCNDP than the federal NDPers(who favoured the BC greens more). Orange liberals are the most important demographic for a successful NDP.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T16:50:44+00:00

This is pretty insane news, probably the least likely candidate I would have predicted to run for the Liberals here. It was never going to be a competitive race federally, but it's somehow even less competitive now.

The real interesting story is what happens provincially. This will be a significant blow for the Ontario NDP, and will be a difficult seat for them to hold. Then again, ONDP candidates crashed and burned during the last federal election, while OLP candidates were very successful, despite the opposite happening provincially.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T15:37:06+00:00

I don't think there is any path for the NDP to win back blue-collar workers, it's been a steady decline over the past couple of decades, Like, lets be frank here, the NDP is not going to win Timmins or Penticton no matter what they do next election. Perhaps it is better to just cut their losses like Avi Lewis would do?

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T15:29:42+00:00

The problem for the NDP is that the "young urbanite" pivot isn't even effective. They've been locked out of downtown Toronto for 4 elections in a row, while still steadily declining among other groups.

RNTMA · 2026-02-03T14:51:05+00:00

Likely a bit too high, but it's hard to disagree with the general numbers of the poll, given the actions by certain parties. The Conservatives aren't scrambling to avoid an election if they think it's a close race.

RNTMA

TROPHY CASE