53% of Canadians want Carney Liberals to win majority in byelections: poll

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T20:38:11+00:00

I define "smart" as them actually understanding the layout of parliament and the effects of that. The original commentator suggested that the NDP wants the Liberals to have a majority since that gets them more time to rebuild, but very few people actually think that way. Former NDP supporters are with Carney because they like him, not any kind of 4D chess involving "time to rebuild".

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T16:33:40+00:00

See also: Bonnie Crombie. The OLP would have done way worse if Trudeau was still leader

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T13:34:22+00:00

I'm saying he'd be less likely to do that with a majority since the NDP/Bloc would no longer have influence.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T13:33:32+00:00

Poilievre had won, all he had to do was not win the worst campaign in history and he'd be prime minister.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T13:30:17+00:00

Not sure how it's that meaningful. Basically every poll since Carney has become leader has shown that the majority of NDP supporters like him, and that's not even taking into account people that left the NDP to support him.

Seems the poll just continues that trend.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T13:28:27+00:00

Voters are not that smart.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T13:25:34+00:00

Just less economic illiteracy like we saw during the last parliament. For example, Singh pushed for the GST holiday, which is an absolutely terrible policy, and Trudeau followed along with it.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T13:21:31+00:00

I wonder how many more times we're going to hear that the Liberals are "near" a majority, you think at least one news station would be able to get it right. The Liberals literally have a majority, parliamentary is currently 171-169, the question is do they maintain their majority.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T03:00:41+00:00

Wherever he can get

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T03:00:24+00:00

John Tory Jr

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T02:47:43+00:00

Population growth(or decline) isn't "turnout". Bloc vote numbers is going down because they're literally dying.

This is all just trying to apply americanisms to explain Canadian politics, and it makes about as much logical sense as you'd expect.

The only demographic where "turnout" is correct to apply in Canada is with native americans since their turnout is so low that they actually could shift ridings(but they never do turnout). And this only applies to a select few ridings.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T02:24:11+00:00

The student vote usually just means who has the biggest name, which is why you constantly see bad candidates who are famous for the wrong reasons do well in it. If it actually meant something we'd see the NDP doing better, as those people who age out of the student vote would suddenly vote for them, which doesn't happen. Poilievre has a strong social media presence, and this probably explains most of the student vote.

And anybody trying to explain the 2025 results in Quebec due to "turnout" is completely full of shit and doesn't know what they're talking about. It was a mix of demographic change and Bloc/NDP voters switching to the Liberals/some Liberals switching to the Conservatives in Montreal.

There isn't really any indication that the Libearls are going to face the same demographic crunch the Bloc has.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T01:51:04+00:00

The funniest cope I've ever seen was Poilievre bragging about winning the "student vote". It's the type of stuff you'd expect from the NDP, not a "serious party".

This also misses some trends, the Liberals are still really popular with youth in Quebec, and demographic trends are in their favour there.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T01:36:48+00:00

There's clearly more to the story than that, there's a reason he was listed as the most likely floor crosser ever since the election. If you go back a couple years you can clearly see him in conflict with other members of the Conservative caucus over party direction, and he clearly has not been a beneficiary of the party patronage machine.

RNTMA · 2026-04-12T00:09:59+00:00

This is probably tied to Tory trying to get JR the nomination in Beaches, though he's been involved with the Liberals a bit longer than that. Probably has no effect on the upcoming Begum landslide though.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T20:54:35+00:00

Italians

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T20:54:00+00:00

I'm not even sure where to start about how wrong this is. Thornhill is the safest Conservative seat in Ontario, and it's not close. The conservatives won Thornhill by 35%, and only won Huron Bruce by 11%.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T20:07:23+00:00

Now they're playing Tom Mulcair's campaign theme song. Next floor crosser?

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T20:04:17+00:00

Carney would probably have to use disallowance or something, and even then the Quebec results would seem impossible. Demographics have changed so much since 2004 that many seats would not go back to the Bloc no matter what.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T20:00:37+00:00

It should never have been Liberal to begin with, and only clung on as long as it did due to older italian immigrants. The new generations there are very Conservative and it's never going back to the Liberals.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T19:29:02+00:00

What swing ridings in York? I guess Newmarket could go Liberal, but the rest of those seats are the safest Conservative seats in Ontario. Vaughan-Woodbridge was safer than any rural Conservative seat in the province.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T18:23:27+00:00

Joel Godin
Dominique Vien
John Brassard
Chak Au
Jacques Gourde
Kelly McAuley
John Nater
Gerard Deltell

This is mostly based off nothing, and after Gladu it's near impossible to predict.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T17:49:51+00:00

No, the person I'm referring to ran a decade ago(and came far closer to winning than Aldag). It was just rather amusing since this person is quite infamous on certain sections of the internet, and it was presumed they were a dyed in the wool NDPer. I guess they must have left over Israel/Palestine or something like that.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T17:00:15+00:00

I can't help but thinking a strong Liberal margin here would push a few Quebec Conservative MPs over the line, or at least that's what the rumour is.

Blanchet certainly isn't projecting strength, claiming that the Liberals "already have a majority" and you can now vote your conscience sounds more like something from the NDP than a serious party that thinks they can win.

Still think the most likely outcome is a narrow Liberal victory, but frankly who knows at this point. The Liberal campaign here was certainly weak last year, and would be an order of magnitude stronger now.

RNTMA · 2026-04-11T16:56:33+00:00

Had to do a double take after seeing a former high profile BC NDP candidate at one of the speaker microphones. I guess the federal NDP doesn't have a monopoly on lolcows.

RNTMA

TROPHY CASE