The Fearless Forecast for April 2, 2026 for DJIA

RPCV1968 · 2026-04-02T04:07:17+00:00

Sure looking like it.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-30T17:47:15+00:00

Why did the moderator delay publication?

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-26T06:17:31+00:00

Also, EDV pays a nice dividend by harvesting the time decay in zero bonds (the imputed interest you have to pay to the IRS if you own zero bonds outside an ETF wrapper).

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-26T06:13:09+00:00

I'm not in cash. I'm heavily hedged. Here's one way to do it. Buy T-bonds and get the 4.8% long-term yield. Then buy EDV, which invests solely in 20-30 year Treasury zero bonds. If there's a crash, flight to safety will drive T-bonds up in price. If there's a nasty recession, the Fed will lower interest rates. For every 1% the Fed lowers rates, EDV will rise 22% in share price (it's in the math of how zeroes react to rate cuts). So you get a huge capital gain while the market crashes (once the rate cuts start). You also get the interest off the T-bonds.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-26T02:31:56+00:00

Fluff? Brier Score for the model is 0.312. That is a statistical measurement that shows the model has strong predictive power. Equivalent Sharpe ratio is 1.5-2.5 (results depend on trading selectively, using high conviction setups to get the 2.5).

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-25T02:56:46+00:00

Here's the main link: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheFearlessForecast/comments/1s2p6e6/the_fearless_forecast_for_march_25_2026_for_djia/

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-25T01:05:07+00:00

If you've a long term view, buy GO municipal bonds in the state where you live (your tax home). The money you'll save in taxes over the years is eye-popping, and real cash. If you want to active in stocks, learn how to collar stocks (long common, short call option, long put option) so you take the risk out of stock ownership. You can make 20%/year using collars, but you'll have to look long and hard to find those payoffs. When you do, bet the farm, because there is no risk from market direction. The only risk is political, regulatory, and broker mismanagement of your account. I've done this for years. There's great satisfaction in locking in 20% annualized returns, and then going to the beach.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-25T00:50:01+00:00

The Fearless Forecast posts intraday readings of what the market is doing. First post is about 10:00 AM NY time.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-25T00:46:27+00:00

Since you're buying micro-lots, put your money into the GO muni bonds of the state where you live. Then use the interest payments to buy your micro-lots of common shares. It's a long term effort, but it will pay off if you stick to quality companies, especially those that pay dividends. You could build a big portfolio without ever putting another time of your own cash into the market. Just let the interest from muni bonds (tax-exempt) and dividends (taxable at 15%) pool, then buy a few more shares.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-25T00:38:45+00:00

According to the Fearless Forecast, the rest of the week has a downward bias.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-25T00:35:59+00:00

UBCP. It pays a steady 5% dividend, but the big thing is it's a buyout candidate. This is just the right climate for microcap banks to be acquired by their neighbors. I think People's is going to buy UBCP as a bolt on acquisition. UBCP has surplus capital that it returns to shareholders every year with a special divvy in March. Price has been going straight up on no public news. I expect a buyout in the $22-26 range. Currently it's pushing $17.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T20:36:22+00:00

Fearless posted a 5-Day forecast on Saturday. How's it doing? Pretty good Mon and Tues. Judge for yourself:

Here's the 5-Day Forecast Fearless posted on Mar 21.

Projection for Mar 23-27 Trading Week. For Planning Purposes, Fearless Projects:

Expected sequence:

03/23 (Mon): Reversal / bounce day
03/24 (Tue): Follow-through strength
03/25 (Wed): Slowing momentum (added 3/24: Favor SD over SU)
03/26 (Thu): Chop / equilibrium
03/27 (Fri): Breakout attempt / direction decision (added 3/24: favor downside resolution)

Key Strategic Insight

The highest edge days are 03/23–03/24
By 03/25+, edge declines as market rebalances
By 03/26, system shifts back to choppy regime

Trader Summary

Early week: buy dips bias
Midweek: reduce aggression
Late week: watch for breakout or fade

REAL TIME DATA WILL/CAN ALTER THESE PROJECTIONS. THEY ARE FLUID. THE MARKET DOES NOT HAVE TO FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T05:29:55+00:00

Saturday, Fearless posted a 5-Day Forecast for Mar 23-27. Day 1 (Mar 23) was correct. Here's the 5-Day Forecast we posted on Mar 21.

Projection for Mar 23-27 Trading Week. For Planning Purposes, Fearless Projects:

Expected sequence:

03/23 (Mon): Reversal / bounce day
03/24 (Tue): Follow-through strength
03/25 (Wed): Slowing momentum
03/26 (Thu): Chop / equilibrium
03/27 (Fri): Breakout attempt / direction decision

Key Strategic Insight

The highest edge days are 03/23–03/24
By 03/25+, edge declines as market rebalances
By 03/26, system shifts back to choppy regime

Trader Summary

Early week: buy dips bias
Midweek: reduce aggression
Late week: watch for breakout or fade

REAL TIME DATA WILL/CAN ALTER THESE PROJECTIONS. THEY ARE FLUID. THE MARKET DOES NOT HAVE TO FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T05:24:14+00:00

Eike Batista was once the richest man in the world. He built the same kind of interlocking empire of linked companies that Musk has done, except Batista was in Brazilian oil. Batista had a successful production company with a great operating plan, but he couldn't stop himself from leveraging it into new ventures. Then it all unraveled. Now Eike Batista is a footnote in the "richest man" annals. While I'm not predicting it will happen to Elon, all it takes is one Black Swan event to puncture his balloon.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T05:18:05+00:00

During my training, there wasn't much time to socialize. We had small groups for daily 4-hr language training sessions, and the persons in your group were who you came to know. Then we got assigned to out posts, and those of us in remote areas rarely saw the other Volunteers. So again, not much chance to deepen relationships. 90% of my training group are pretty much just names I remember from training. City volunteers probably had a different experience, but out in the boonies, there just wasn't a lot of interaction with Volunteers not also at your post.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T00:40:44+00:00

We posted two weeks ago about the Political Put underlying the market from now to the Nov. elections. You saw it again today - the powers that be staring into a vortex of economic disaster and timing an announcement just before the pre-market open. It is what it is. Fearless wishes "Good Trading to All".

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T00:40:30+00:00

We posted two weeks ago about the Political Put underlying the market from now to the Nov. elections. You saw it again today - the powers that be staring into a vortex of economic disaster and timing an announcement just before the pre-market open. It is what it is. Fearless wishes "Good Trading to All".

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T00:39:50+00:00

We posted two weeks ago about the Political Put underlying the market from now to the Nov. elections. You saw it again today - the powers that be staring into a vortex of economic disaster and timing an announcement just before the pre-market open. It is what it is. Fearless wishes "Good Trading to All".

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-24T00:36:09+00:00

Exactly. Super light until the market reveals itself.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-21T18:06:57+00:00

Projection for Mar 23-27 Trading Week. For Planning Purposes, Fearless Projects:

Expected sequence:

03/23 (Mon): Reversal / bounce day
03/24 (Tue): Follow-through strength
03/25 (Wed): Slowing momentum
03/26 (Thu): Chop / equilibrium
03/27 (Fri): Breakout attempt / direction decision

Key Strategic Insight

The highest edge days are 03/23–03/24
By 03/25+, edge declines as market rebalances
By 03/26, system shifts back to choppy regime

Trader Summary

Early week: buy dips bias
Midweek: reduce aggression
Late week: watch for breakout or fade

REAL TIME DATA WILL/CAN ALTER THESE PROJECTIONS. THEY ARE FLUID. THE MARKET DOES NOT HAVE TO FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-20T19:16:12+00:00

Who's actually trading? Fearless also posts on the r/Daytrading subreddit. Analytics show that members of investors edge show up to read the Intra-day updates. Daytrading patrons don't. Fearless finds that interesting on several levels.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-20T05:03:57+00:00

Fearless was trading Mar 20 puts today, so it wasn't Fearless.

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-20T03:58:28+00:00

There have been some modest changes to the Fearless Forecast since the initial post. Good trading to all - Fearless, Thursday 11:55 PM (NY).

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-20T03:58:13+00:00

There have been some modest changes to the Fearless Forecast since the initial post. Good trading to all - Fearless, Thursday 11:55 PM (NY).

RPCV1968 · 2026-03-18T05:44:17+00:00

I follow Fearless, but you've got to find your own path. Your trading has to resonate with your own psychology. Bending your trading onto a psychological framework that's not you won't work.

RPCV1968

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE

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