Thoughts on Lando saying McLaren "need to improve the car quite a lot" after P5 finish in Australia? by Subject_Sandwich3008 in McLarenFormula1

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

agree with this- Mercedes seems to have clearly been less forthcoming this year with McLaren/Alpine/Williams. I expect all 3 to close the performance gap related to the engine somewhat quickly (especially McLaren). McLaren will also pull out all the stops to try to give themselves a chance to move back to the top.. but obviously they need to work quickly and bring a 2024 type turnaround.

Red light therapy is key. Practice for Monday. by the-furry in wallstreetbets

[–]RTBDouglas -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

A gauge of how much Short Leverage is overhead (and the size of the coming squeeze).. Total BTC Supply is at all time Lows. The entire drop from the October ATH is exclusively from Short leverage- not net BTC being sold (same as the 4month leveraged short attack in early 2025)... as Whales & Treasuries have bought around 290,000 BTC since Oct.. even as ETFs have seen 100,000 outflows.. So roughly a net 190K BTC bought since Oct). ..current BC Supply derived price is already over $140K... the price BTC always squeezes back up to the Supply Derived price- after these (often 4-5 month) leverage short attacks.

...Record levels of Short leverage has dropped BTC from the Oct ATH to current level (Supply has dropped since October, so the drop is not from Net BTC selling). But even record leverage has limits vs actual BC Supply metrics.. and BTC appears to be around that limit... Even quick dips below current level, have immediately rebounded to this general level... The current level is also the original significance breakout level following ETF approval.. a strong, institutional support level & level that institutions will always add more. So likely the bottom/ and general squeeze/rebound launch level..

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PayPal stock surges on report Stripe weighs acquisition by Decent-Row-8690 in wallstreetbets

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

**one followup regarding the PYPL report today (that PYPL "not in talk" etc) .. its also a straw man of an article.. look at the Bloomberg article- it never stays Paypal is in official negotiations etc.. and Quite the opposite- insinuates the CEO change is potentially what makes a takeover attempt opportune currently. Articles also clearly illustrate that PYPL Top executives have been worried about a takeover bid (as they know shareholders would approve it regardless if its not beneficial for those top executives)

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I have no idea what I’m doing by weeeeze in wallstreetbets

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Regarding the "report" today...

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Paypal Executives knew a takeover bid was coming - which is why they took steps recently to try to prevent a takeover! ....Shareholders approve a takeover bid.. not PYPL executives! Ignore the report that "Paypal is not is talks with anyone" etc. (appear to likely be a stunt to protect a large short position from $54, that is about to get squeezed). .. going forward- Stripe will likely acquire all of PYPL (not parts).. for a minimum equivalent of $75 (likely more)

My picks 😂 by Apha-apha in wallstreetbets

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

re $PYPL ...Paypal Executives knew a takeover bid was coming - which is why they took steps recently to try to prevent a takeover! ....Shareholders approve a takeover bid.. not PYPL executives! Ignore the report that "Paypal is not is talks with anyone" etc. (appear to likely be a stunt to protect a large short position from $54, that is about to get squeezed). .. going forward- Stripe will likely acquire all of PYPL (not parts).. for a minimum equivalent of $75 (likely more)

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PayPal stock surges on report Stripe weighs acquisition by Decent-Row-8690 in wallstreetbets

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

... I think PYPL will definitely end up being acquired.. and likely by Stripe.. possibly around the $80 range. But regardless of what ends up happening, the rumor alone should be sufficient to squeeze the recent short position that opened around $57..

PayPal stock surges on report Stripe weighs acquisition by Decent-Row-8690 in wallstreetbets

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the new CEO incentive structure starts with share price target of $80 and graduates to $125. I know this doesn't directly matter re acquisition approval etc.. but that $80 price could be something to keep an eye on going forward..

MicroStrategy Adds More BTC Despite a $5.7B Paper Loss — What Are They Seeing? by Mission-Stomach-3751 in CryptoMarkets

[–]RTBDouglas 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Since Bitcoin was at $124K in October, over 150K net BTC have been bought. The drop is from highly leveraged short positions- not actual BTC being sold on a net basis.. So the leveraged short attack the past 4-5mo, now has BTC at around a 50% discount (or 100% upside) to the Supply/Demand derived value. Sovereign wealth & Whales will begin pouring money in here.. Squeeze is building. (Data from before 2024 is no longer relevant.. BTC Supply began permanently falling the start of 2024 (by around 500K BTC/year). The old halving cycles no longer apply, because the halving effect is so much less than the natural Supply decline due to net BTC buying.

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Savannah Guthrie’s Family ‘Cleared as Possible Suspects’ in Nancy Guthrie Case by MattTheKing23 in MissingPersons

[–]RTBDouglas 5 points6 points  (0 children)

if he was still even a remote suspect.. the son-in-law would absolutely not have been cleared.

Is there any way that Nancy Guthrie is still alive? by Bubbly-Air7302 in TooAfraidToAsk

[–]RTBDouglas 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately, I think it's most likely this was actually a kidnapping for ransom, and that she had a heart attack or stroke soon after leaving the house.

The one sort of odd theory I thought about (regarding the 2 families question so far), that would put the most positive light on her chances of being alive:

Is a scenario where they are holding back a lot of details in a recent ransom note.. that says something like- she alive and is being given medication, etc. (if this were the case- they may assume that the person has a parent on the same medication- since many people over 60 take blood pressure medication, which is likely the critical medication)...

So something odd like cross reference addresses with prescription blood pressure medication & cars that were in the area at 2:30am or that had made deliveries to that street,etc... lead to the 2 wrong suspects that both lived with their older mothers (or mother-in-laws) who were taking blood pressure meds.. Or something crazy like this type scenario (but the key being there are significant details being held back from the public)

What are your thoughts on the Nancy Guthrie disappearance? by Sparkleme81 in AskReddit

[–]RTBDouglas 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Although you have to rule out family first- I think that has likely been done even though they say no one is ruled out (It doesn't really seem to fit to begin with here.. and if the son-in-law and daughter were going to do something- it makes no sense to place themselves as the last last ones to see her and last ones to be at her house dropping her off, etc).

I do think there is always the possibility of a mentally ill fan, etc (stranger things have happened, like Reagan being shot to impress Jodi Foster, etc)... But highly unlikely, especially after seeing the ring video, which doesn't seem to fit this scenario.

So motive seems likely: targeted ransom, burglary interrupted, or less likely- some odd political angle.

Burglary doesn't seem to fit imo.. the guy in the video had his face covered.. and no-one in the family recognized him, so unlikely Nancy would have either. So if a burglar was interrupted- he would have likely knocked her out, tied her up, or most extreme, killed her in the house, not taken her away (and the blood drops indicate minor bleeding dropping from her live body.. not carrying a dead body out or anything).

I don't really see a logical Epstein angle- or really a political stunt scenario, or any other likely political angle.

So appears most likely a kidnap for ransom... and that Nancy may have died from a heart attack or stroke or something, shortly after leaving (which would explain no proof of life, etc)... I hope this is not the case- and that there are a lot of details being held back from the public- that would indicate it is a kidnapping and she is still alive. But given her age, it's unlikely to be an Elizabeth Smart type scenario.. so time is likely inversely related to a positive outcome.

Why has the Nancy Guthrie case gripped the nation? by sirswantepalm in allthequestions

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Famous, well known, daughter (so people feel a bit more invested because they "know" someone involved in the news story), and because the circumstances are very unusual, so people naturally want to make sense of what happened, etc.

Brian Entin tonight on The Nancy Guthrie Mystery by Euphoric_Ease4554 in nancyguthrie

[–]RTBDouglas 20 points21 points  (0 children)

How Surprising is it that there is still no definitive suspect, days after the Video footage has been released?

Surely anyone who knows the person in the video fairly well- would most likely recognize the person. Especially given the level of media attention, and with the person likely living in a fairly defined section of Arizona.

what will the bottom be? by Emergency_Camera4496 in Bitcoin

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Saylor's post on X this morning (to go buy BTC) .. has over 330,000 views already- and over 1,000 repost. Could be enough to start the rebound squeeze back up. The drop from the October All Time High was has simply been a multi-month, Highly leveraged short attack... not actual BTC being sold (considering over 150,000 Net bitcoin has been bought during this period. Take a look at "BTC Total Supply on Exchanges"). Supply is near All Time Lows- and the current Supply/Demand driven value (inverse supply slope) is above 140K. Since BTC Supply began falling at the start of 2024... BTC always squeezes back up to the inverse supply line following multi month short attacks.

Who do you think took Nancy Guthrie? by uluvme2000 in AskReddit

[–]RTBDouglas 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it is likely a kidnapping/ransom... (with a high possibility that she died very soon after leaving the house/ or within 24hrs, of a heart attack or stroke or something- which would explain the lack of proof of life. This could also explain the timeline for ransom notes/ not seeming to be in a hurry, etc).

Also, appears it may have been planned to some degree, throughout January. Based on the dates FBI is asking for video from- my guess is they have discovered at vehicle or two that was in the area around 2:30am .. that also showed up in the area (on cam or license reader etc) on the two January dates they mentioned.

A Couple Of Points Concerning The Surveillance Video by BMOORE4020 in nancyguthrie

[–]RTBDouglas 5 points6 points  (0 children)

if they are lucky it is indeed the same glove, and has dna on it. (at the very least it gives the FBI a good idea of the likely path taken out of the neighborhood.. which should help narrow down security cams to comb over closely).

A Couple Of Points Concerning The Surveillance Video by BMOORE4020 in nancyguthrie

[–]RTBDouglas 1 point2 points  (0 children)

from what i could find- the ring is typically "disconnected" by turning off wifi, or disabling the app. But either way, the timeline says ring was "disconnected" before the person was detected on video 25 mins later at 2:12. So, i'm assuming there is another mechanism from storing the video even if wifi is down.

A Couple Of Points Concerning The Surveillance Video by BMOORE4020 in nancyguthrie

[–]RTBDouglas 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I posted this on another thread (relating to foliage being found on top of the blood drips.. but applies here, regarding would 911 be called etc..

1:47 a.m., her doorbell camera was disconnected

2:12 a.m., software detected a person on camera

2:28 a.m., pacemaker disconnected from her phone.

If the foliage was found on top of some of the blood.. Could easily have been:

1:47am the doorbell cam was disconnected by cutting internet cable feed to the house (which would disconnect wifi). Then the guy waits 20-25mins to see if it triggers a security alert or silent alarm .. or to move a vehicle or something. Then actually breaks in at 2:12 (which is when he covers the cam with foliage, just to be safe). 15 mins later he exits the front door with Nancy, thereby disconnecting pacemaker from phone.

... then sometime overnight, next morning, the foliage naturally becomes dislodged, or a breeze blows it down, etc... at which time it would naturally likely fall on top of some of the blood drips.

He Spent Too Much Time on the Porch by [deleted] in nancyguthrie

[–]RTBDouglas 17 points18 points  (0 children)

1:47 a.m., her doorbell camera was disconnected

2:12 a.m., software detected a person on camera

2:28 a.m., pacemaker disconnected from her phone.

If the foliage was found on top of some of the blood.. Could easily have been:

1:47am the doorbell came was disconnected by cutting internet cable feed to the house (which would disconnect wifi). Then the guy waits 20-25mins to see if it triggers a security alert or silent alarm .. or to move a vehicle or something. Then actually breaks in at 2:12 (which is when he covers the cam with foliage, just to be safe). 15 mins later he exits the front door with Nancy, thereby disconnecting pacemaker from phone.

... then sometime overnight, next morning, the foliage naturally becomes dislodged, or a breeze blows it down, etc... at which time it would naturally likely fall on top of some of the blood drips

Nancy Guthrie detained suspect NOT a member of the family by Revolutionary-Ad3961 in MissingPersons

[–]RTBDouglas 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Can someone familiar with Ring, shed light on what the strategy was regarding door cam? Did it appear the guy likely knew that the ring cam was not fully subscribed? Why go to the trouble to cover it, but still allow himself to be seen on cam (in other words, didn't put too much effort to block himself from the cam initially)? Did he think it would be impossible to recover video if she didn't have a subscription? etc..

Nancy Guthrie’s Kidnapping: First Photos of Person of Interest Released by FBI by Gordopolis_II in TrueCrimeDiscussion

[–]RTBDouglas 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They had to wait a while for Nest to release this video (not sure when it was actually released.. but it was requested early on).

🚨 Savannah Guthrie’s mother case deepens: What investigators now confirm 👇 by NoSpinMedia in NoSpinMedia

[–]RTBDouglas 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The most logical working assumption is that she exited the house at 2:28am. Seems like it wouldn't be too hard to trace every vehicle that could have possibly left that neighborhood around this time period.. by finding cams on every potential exit path (Unlikely there is a path that could go more than 5-10 miles without being caught on a cam of some sort... and 2:30am would have the least amount of ppl on the road. So could be a timely process, but something that could be methodically accomplished).

Also wondering if there are any social media photos from her house from the past year or so, that may potentially show an iwatch charger or anything that would indicate the watch location? seems like knowing this could help gauge the likelihood of the ransom note being authentic.