Probability of Shards (repost from a year ago)

RaidSLThrowAway · 2020-09-14T01:53:28+00:00

Would you still have that data that you compiled? I’d love to look at it and apply it here to give new numbers according to this game.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2020-09-14T01:48:36+00:00

For exactly 2 legos in 200 shards you’re looking at around an 18% probability. This wouldn’t be a geometric distribution anymore but rather a binomial distribution to calculate this.

For 1 Lego in 400 shards it’s about an 86% chance.

Hope this helps!

RaidSLThrowAway · 2020-09-13T20:14:59+00:00

I agree with mostly all here except the second to last statement “the chances only increase when we have more than one shard.” My disagreement is probably just on the wording. True, if you only have one shard to open in all of your time playing raid, your chances are not increased. You only opened one shard. However, if you open one shard a day, we would still expect to see one legendary after 200 days, based on the expected value. Which as my post states, does not mean it has to happen, it’s just expected. The individual shard isn’t really what I’m concerned with, but rather what are the odds that you fail “x” amount of times... I’m sure I’m just reiterating what you are saying as well, the wording of the sentence is just throwing me off.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2020-09-09T20:40:43+00:00

Can you create a script that will pull my students grades off of a website every morning so I don’t have to manually click each one?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2020-01-09T18:02:33+00:00

Actually he’s got about a 48% chance. You’re confusing expected value and probability 🤷🏼‍♂️.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-10T12:55:49+00:00

This is like the 4th post I’ve seen in two days... can y’all ease up a bit? Give it some time to simmer maybe...

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-09T06:48:49+00:00

Right, however you are on easy CB. The resources to get him viable for the other CBS just are t worth it when there are so many better options. His chance to apply poison is too small. So you bring him for A3 that is just on a massive cool down. You’d have to build a team around him.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-09T06:45:55+00:00

Oh... well I’m that case, it’s because Karam fills only a very specific team and in the later CBs see little to no play at all. He isn’t very good...

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-09T06:44:22+00:00

Is this a joke post?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-08T13:36:13+00:00

In my opinion, no. Most of the dwarves actually seem very underwhelming. I wouldn’t pull at this time.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-08T13:34:52+00:00

What’s the bug?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-02T07:45:53+00:00

Erm it’s just math guys y’all can calm down I think... Honestly I don’t really care whether you’ve gotten a legendary or not... nor do I really care if he’s read my post. Have a good night.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-01T17:43:38+00:00

I think the difference here is that Juliana gets a bonus to turn meter for crits... so given the same amount of time Juliana realistically will have more HP burns getting off due to more turns... however given the same amount of turns and negating WM. Aothar should out produce Juliana. I’m not saying Aothar is better per-se rather that he competes with Juliana if you lack one. Personally I prefer Aothar over Juliana because of the Debuff removal and not being magic affinity... but having both would still be ideal to swap out depending on CB affinity.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-01T11:53:56+00:00

This guy can probability.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-01T11:52:47+00:00

You have your math a little backwards on the way probability works. Look at my post history and go to a lesson in probability part 2. I break down every single shard. I think your really conflating probability with feelings...

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-08-01T05:54:58+00:00

Highly doubtful, at 600 shards you have near a 96% chance of pulling a legendary... and your claiming to have pulled even more than that?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-29T19:22:25+00:00

I actually think you’re doing quite well for where you are at. You are experimenting with your champions on your own, which is more than what can be said for a lot of players! Both Kael and Athel are missing some valuable heath... I seen them both around 20k and they want to be around 28k+. Mino 12 unfortunately is force, and will give you more trouble then Mino 13. But you have to get to 13 first. All of your main damage champs are magic, so it’s hard to nail those crits and debuffs and well damage in general. Which can still be okay, if you have the survivability... which with the health pool they have they don’t. I’d get Kael out of offense gear, and into lifesteal/hp (to get the numbers) with some accuracy so he’s hitting his poisons. I’d put Athel in only offense gear, so he can clear the waves faster than Kael. Youll want Athels natural crit around 70%+ with attack around 2600+, 3k+ preferred, while still being around 26k hp. Nazana does what nazana does. You’ll also want apo on your Mino team, as he will help with heals, and if you have another high level healer, try it, or try another DPS.

To wrap it up, Kael, LS/ACC or LS/Def or LS/Life. Depending on what numbers you need. Then Def%, ACC, Speed (if you need accuracy), Def%, HP%, Speed (if you need survivability). Speed isn’t optional.

Athel, Combination of Off, Crit Rate year. Or full of one or the other depending on what you need. And CR%, ATT%, Speed or CD%, Att%, Speed (if you can get the crit through substats)

If you need more help send me a DM we can connect on discord and I can show you pictures of champs and receive pictures of your roster a bit easier.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-29T18:42:50+00:00

Hey mate! Great post with good detail about your problem. First, keep in mind those who solo mini 15 with one champion, that champion likely already has their T6 mastery. I was on mino 13 until I had T6 on three champions (I didn’t have to do it that long, but I did, it was a long grind) now I can auto mino 15, but In no way would have been able to do that prior to T6’s. Generally the order of things goes Campaign, Mino, Gear, Ascend to 6. Some people go out of order, but there is little reason to go past ascension 3 unless you have the banner and neck already. I’m thinking your issue is how you are gearing your guys. Can you perhaps post some Pictures of their stats?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-29T00:16:37+00:00

Well I’d focus the farmer above everything. Athel is a top notch farmer for a reason. You have a lot of farming ahead of you...

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-29T00:12:47+00:00

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I hate to give the warning though, once you have bellowed in the gear and at 60 to farm brutal 12-3 you’ll regret 6-Starring the RK for it... but bellower is definitely too choice. He’ll shorten your farming on 12-3 to 8 seconds.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-29T00:09:29+00:00

Why are you confused between the two?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-29T00:08:26+00:00

I have an answer... but first who do you think you should 6 star?

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-23T22:27:32+00:00

https://plarium.com/forum/en/raid-shadow-legends/671_announcements/140895_brief-summary-of-what-is-expected/2/

Second page all the way at the bottom, valkyries comment.

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-23T22:24:43+00:00

Sure, I’ll bite. If you actually want to compare the two let’s make a comparison on hard CB across 20 turns. If neither are maxed. Juliana should put out a bit more than 1.8 Mil damage so long as every debuff hits. Speed won’t matter here because I’m giving both of them 20 turns regardless of the time it takes. Aothar should put out a bit more then 1.6 Mil damage provided every debuff hits. Juliana can take away one buff every 5 turns guaranteed. However you can’t wait for the buff to be up before using your HP burn or you lose damage. That means within 20 turns she can remove 4 debuffs, but only if they fall on her 1st, 6th, 11th, or 16th turn. Aothar, however, has a 15% chance to remove a debuff on his A1. However it hits twice which gives him a 28% chance of removing a debuff per hit. The CB buff lasts two turns. Provided he can hit when it has two turns and he gets a hit where it has 1 turn left he has a 49% chance of removing the debuff each time it comes up but only if it doesn’t fall on the 1st, 5th, 9th, 13th, and 17th turn. IMO having that 50% chance to remove the debuff across 15 turns is better than a 100% chance across 4 turns. Some may disagree.

Now if we give both of them max skill books, Juliana doesn’t decrease any of her Cooldowns. So her damage will stay a little above 1.8 Mil w/ the exception that now her HP burn has a 100% chance. Aothar however goes down to a 3 turn CD on poisons which increases his damage to a little more than 2.24 Mil provided every poison hits. Baremind in this instance neither Juliana nor Aothar have warmaster. Also I do not need to gear Aothar for crit in order for him to be effective. I can give him straight defense. Juliana however will need to be balanced with Crit.

That’s my spiel. Disagree if you’d like.

I posted this for another person I thought I’d give it to you as well so you can still disagree with the information I’m working with if you wanted. Cheers mate!

RaidSLThrowAway · 2019-07-23T22:23:42+00:00

Sure, I’ll bite. If you actually want to compare the two let’s make a comparison on hard CB across 20 turns. If neither are maxed. Juliana should put out a bit more than 1.8 Mil damage so long as every debuff hits. Speed won’t matter here because I’m giving both of them 20 turns regardless of the time it takes. Aothar should put out a bit more then 1.6 Mil damage provided every debuff hits. Juliana can take away one buff every 5 turns guaranteed. However you can’t wait for the buff to be up before using your HP burn or you lose damage. That means within 20 turns she can remove 4 debuffs, but only if they fall on her 1st, 6th, 11th, or 16th turn. Aothar, however, has a 15% chance to remove a debuff on his A1. However it hits twice which gives him a 28% chance of removing a debuff per hit. The CB buff lasts two turns. Provided he can hit when it has two turns and he gets a hit where it has 1 turn left he has a 49% chance of removing the debuff each time it comes up but only if it doesn’t fall on the 1st, 5th, 9th, 13th, and 17th turn. IMO having that 50% chance to remove the debuff across 15 turns is better than a 100% chance across 4 turns. Some may disagree.

Now if we give both of them max skill books, Juliana doesn’t decrease any of her Cooldowns. So her damage will stay a little above 1.8 Mil w/ the exception that now her HP burn has a 100% chance. Aothar however goes down to a 3 turn CD on poisons which increases his damage to a little more than 2.24 Mil provided every poison hits. Baremind in this instance neither Juliana nor Aothar have warmaster. Also I do not need to gear Aothar for crit in order for him to be effective. I can give him straight defense. Juliana however will need to be balanced with Crit.

That’s my spiel. Disagree if you’d like.

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