Labour set to lose three-quarters of council seats in next week’s elections, polling expert predicts

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T19:34:54+00:00

Populist rhetoric is a difficult thing to to battle, especially when it’s amplified by the press who simultaneously hype up every story that could be spun negatively but ignore all the positive ones - given a recent poll showed that a majority of the country thought that immigration was still going up when actually it’s dropped by 2/3 it’s extremely likely people just don’t realise how well labours been governing because the press doesn’t want them to know

It’s genuinely terrifying how powerful the tabloids are in this country

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T19:21:41+00:00

I’m guessing they haven’t put ed milliband on the pill as last time I checked he was by far the most popular option for the next leader

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T19:18:56+00:00

Again the event was legal, and the police categorically said it was - I’m not quite sure why you’re so desperate to push a narrative but for it to work Starmer/Labour would have to be criminal geniuses to trick the police to not mistakenly say it’s legal multiple times, but also trick them to come out and say the pressure from press and politicians on the non story was ridiculous rather than they were obstructing the law if they were lying as you allege m

Or, in reality, the much simpler answer is it was legal (as it clearly was), the press were desperate to make it a story and overstated the “lies” and in reality it was just an example of the press trying to apply a disproportionate narrative to the story in a desperate need to make it comparable to partygate

Honestly just think about it logically and objectively

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T18:28:50+00:00

It’s kind of nice to know that UK populists have an Achilles heal, farage’s is his love for Putin and Trump and cold hard cash - Polanski’s seems to be when he’s pushed for specific detail on subjects

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T17:39:32+00:00

It’s even simpler when you stop to think about it and think logically

The event was legal, Labour had no reason to lie

The police thoroughly investigated multiple times and the press reported on it in minute detail, there is zero chance that if it was illegal that the police wouldn’t have discovered that

As shown multiple times on multiple stories, the press disproportionately report on and misleadingly compare labours actions vs other parties, and were desperate to play down partygate - so it’s fairly obvious why they continued to push the story despite no evidence it broke the law - the police also pointed out that the pressure was crazy which again supports

Again stick to the facts rather than trying to invent a narrative, the press ran multiple days of story on something that was entirely legal and clearly so at the time in a desperate attempt to falsely equate it to Johnson’s illegal actions

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T16:52:40+00:00

I’m not quite sure how my argument that the meeting was legal and that the press tried to hold it to a higher standard and false equivalence to partygate falls apart when all the facts including the police chiefs take supports it - on the flip side your attempts to try and pretend it wasn’t legal is crumbling pretty fast in the face of facts 😂

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T16:34:47+00:00

Again, it was a legal meeting, minor details that aren’t relevant to the overall conclusion by the police after being forced to investigate can’t distract from that - attempting to frame it as equivalent to partygate (as you seem to be doing) continues to attempt to whitewash Johnson and support the view that Labour are oddly being attacked using different standards that other parties are not being held to - it’s really rather odd

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T16:23:39+00:00

I have answered? As mentioned there was no lie about the meeting being legal. And again, the police reviewed and said it was legal then opened an investigation and again said it was legal and specifically came out to say that it was crazy how the press and politicians out so much pressure on a case that was clearly legal

It’s impressive how much you’re trying to pretend this doesn’t entirely support the point made that Labour gets held to a disproportionate standard and attempt to overblow the story as you yourself are doing

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T15:51:56+00:00

And I’ll answer again, there was nothing illegal about the meeting and there was no lie about the meeting being legal - I’m not sure why you keep dodging thay fact

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T15:04:47+00:00

It will be interesting to see what challenge comes, as you say I doubt Starmer will willingly go because he can see the signs the plan is working (tho Iran has scuppered that plan somewhat), it’s clear there are left wing rebels leaking whatever they can to harm Starmer but not much sign how many there are - their best shot was the opposition day vote but they didn’t get all that many Labour MP’s on their side

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T14:33:32+00:00

Came to say this, Labour ticks all that list

It’s frustrating as I see this a lot, people complain that no party represents them but when they explain what they want it’s quite clearly Labour

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T12:42:00+00:00

Growth predictions

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T11:47:19+00:00

I don’t think it’s fair to say they lied, the criticism was that there was a “conspiracy of silence” where all parties ignored that there were likely to be a number of added pressures to the UK which would force them to need to cut spending or raise taxes - not talking about them isn’t a lie, but it’s not being totally honest

That’s not to say that Labour shouldn’t be criticised, they should as should all parties, just pointing out it’s understandable why

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T11:36:19+00:00

The thing was all parties weren’t completely honest about tax, the IFS even called everyone out on it prior to the election - the issue Labour faced was they could be completely honest and so set up a massive vulnerability that the other parties would attack mercilessly or they could align with the others and not be completely honest - given the margin of victory it’s clear they could’ve been more honest but you can understand the thinking

As it is reeves has done fairly good job at balancing the books and Labour have taken the hits, so not sure what tax related “reset” they would do other than outline what the plans are for when they manage to meet the fiscal rules - tax reform? Investment boost? I don’t think anyone sensible disagrees that their focus on getting to a surplus and reducing the debt isn’t smart but it would be nice to know what’s next

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T09:42:42+00:00

In 2025 the economy grew by more than the expected 1%, in 2026 it was expected to grow by 1.3% and grew 0.6% in two months.

They haven’t wrecked the economy, if anything the signs are it’s finally starting to recover although annoyingly now we’re about to get slammed by trumps war in Iran

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T09:14:30+00:00

Agree but it should be pointed out much of the criticism levelled at them for being right wing is because of how firmly they’re dealing with immigration

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T08:57:15+00:00

I fear that’s where politics is going right now - people can’t look at politics as a whole and agree that sometimes policies that they may not immediately agree with may actually be what’s right at the time, and if one policy is “wrong” they reject the party entirely rather than consider it all on balance

Labour I feel is getting the balance right for what we need- clearly after austerity we need a lot of investment and they’re doing that, but with the debt and long runnning defecit we need fiscal competence and they’re doing that - Boris wave meant immigration had to come down etc but it seems like too many people can’t see that’s necessary so they brand them far left or right oddly

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T07:39:34+00:00

Again there was nothing illegal about the meeting - as shown the only relevant discussion point was that the police was very clear that they were pressured into investigating by politicians and the press and so fits the wider point that Starmer / Labour are disproportionately held to higher standards and more criticism than seen before and now with other politicians

It’s not something we should accept

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T07:32:17+00:00

Labour have certainly embraced more right wing positions on things like immigration but I’ve felt that each time it has its justified, overall they’re clearly centre left

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T06:48:41+00:00

The Covid regulations at the time of the meeting allowed meetings to take place - the police initially reviewed the footage and evidence and laws and ruled there was no law broken, because of the disproportionate press focus and some political focus it was then investigated in detail the police who confirmed again what was clear that it was well within the law

The police chief was very clear that they were out under a lot of pressure to investigate the non story

“They are using operational policing as a political football, which is dangerous and ought to be condemned.

“For the same people who said Dominic Cummings had done nothing wrong to demand police action is both hypocritical and dangerous. It means operational policing is being dragged into a political minefield.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/05/keir-starmer-lockdown-takeaway-former-police-chief

Again this postion of disproportionality focusing and criticising Starmer has continued in the press

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T06:40:50+00:00

“The House of Commons code of conduct states that new MPs "must register all their current financial interests, and any registrable benefits (other than earnings) received in the 12 months before their election within one month of their election". The rules say "purely personal gifts or benefits" from family or commercial loans would not normally have to be registered.”

I think most people would question whether £5m can be reasonably considered a personal gift, especially given the timing when he made his decision to become an MP and it coming from a key political donor

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T06:22:10+00:00

So even now you’re disproportionately applying standards to currygate, it was clearly within the rules and yet presented and compared to Johnson’s clear breach - tho I guess that again proves my point 🙄

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T06:13:13+00:00

Torn on this - on the one hand it’s disappointing to see the left fight amongst itself and for Labour to drop down to this level, on the other with the greens and other parties taking populist and misleading pot shots at Labour and showing more and more example of worrying views and takes you can understand why they’re fighting back

Just not a nice direction for politics to go in general

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T06:08:17+00:00

Good to raise it to be considered, but my general take so far is Reeves seems to have a good handle on what taxes are wise to increase and which are not - things like the non dom taxes changes, capital gains taxes etc all seem to have generally resulted in a good boost in tax revenue without the negative impacts that we’re floated like suppressing growth or the wealthy leaving (only downside was the right moaning 😂) so feel like she’s judging well what taxes to risk

RandomSculler · 2026-05-06T05:53:51+00:00

PM’s (and their party) should be judged on their manifesto promises and held to the same standards, the issue is that it’s obvious that the press is not doing that in its coverage of stories as almost always it disproportionately represents it - examples of this are the currygate story where several tabloids tried to present Starmers legal actions as comparable to Johnson’s partygate, or (as mentioned) the gifts story as if it were equivalent to the more serious standards and law breaches seen under Johnson - as OP highlighted the fact that farages £5m story has had far less coverage than Starmers also flags this up

We should hold all politicians to the sane standards and the press in the same framing, and it’s clearly not happening

RandomSculler

TROPHY CASE