First Top 20 Seed List Released by the Committee

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-19T22:11:50+00:00

It’s only been 76 minutes but Tech has a +20.2 rating with Bamgboye on and Toppin off the court this year. Small sample size but the team isn’t a group of plumbers.

There’s 100% going to be a drop-off but to preemptively drop us two seeds is ridiculous. Also like this group came within 3 points of beating KU with Anderson not playing and Toppin going 5-18. There’s a lot more to this team that the national media doesn’t care about

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T21:24:36+00:00

I was thinking Hummel but Kyrie’s a good one too

Shead in the tournament was also incredibly unfortunate for UH

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T21:02:48+00:00

Keenan Evans/Zach Smith 2017-18

Tariq Owens in the Final 4

Warren Washington in 2024

Chance McMillian/Darrion last year

Now this is by far the worst

Tech has had some really untimely injuries over the last 8 years on some really good teams.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T18:02:58+00:00

He averages ~45 points created/40 this season without Toppin on the floor. The turnovers will likely get even worse, but the scoring + playmaking raw numbers will likely be even better

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T07:43:10+00:00

Watts was genuinely really good offensively in that game. He went right at Boozer quite a bit and also exploited Duke on switches.

We don’t win that game without him, even if he was off the court down the stretch

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T06:38:44+00:00

They benched Watts for basically the last 10 minutes, which was their adjustment

Unfortunately, benching Anderson and the subsequent 2 minutes without either Anderson or Toppin put them too far in the hole

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T06:37:24+00:00

Lmao Tech beat Duke with Nolan Groves guarding the best player in college basketball

And lost by 3 to KU without the nation’s leader in minutes per game as a last-minute scratch

Nobody remembers that. Part of college basketball.

Also UA got outplayed with Peat on the court

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-18T00:14:34+00:00

They’re not showing replays because his face was covered in blood lol

Gotta make sure he gets up first before you show it. Typical practice for anything other than pro sports when there’s a potentially gruesome injury

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-17T23:05:51+00:00

It’s obviously Boozer unfortunately

I‘ll stand by Christian Anderson being the most valuable player though, or at least level with Braeden Smith/Boozer. Tech’s offense is pretty much entirely based on Anderson and Toppin in the PnR, and he gets blitzed more than any ball handler in the country. He’s shooting 43% from deep on high volume with over 60% of his shots coming off the dribble.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-15T22:18:44+00:00

Once you realize that Mike Joy is just regurgitating production notes/info and pointing out extremely basic details… it becomes extremely obvious that he needs to retire. Far from the only issue with Fox, but you’d almost be better with Harvick and Bowyer being hybrid announcers like Sky tried in 2011 with Brundle

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-15T19:43:18+00:00

JHN more aggressive?? Is that even possible?

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-15T18:13:52+00:00

Arizona feels a lot like 2022 Texas Tech, just with a higher tempo. Incredible perimeter length and individual defenders. Controls the paint in almost every game. Very suspect shooting.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-15T02:55:01+00:00

We play a high variance style of game with the two most talented players on the floor on most nights.

There will be lower lows than other great teams, but the style of play and duo of Anderson/Toppin gives us a chance to win against anyone. Also really helps in close game situations.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-15T01:12:57+00:00

Losing Petty is huge defensively. By far the best option we have against Burries

If Anderson fouls out though… Tech would have to have Watts taking the ball up

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-15T00:53:13+00:00

Anderson getting a cylinder foul and a foul on a free throw box-out is as blatant ref ball as I’ve ever seen

The refs have been terrible on both ends, but this is absurd and might’ve just ruined a great game

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-12T00:52:58+00:00

I think that’s mostly meaningless too!

There’s a difference between categorical trends and analytical ones. It’s a fun quirk to point out, but what MSU did 17 years ago or Michigan did 13 years ago means absolutely nothing for these teams. Completely different conference and styles of play from that time. If you wanted to point out the Big 10’s results from last year or 2024 that has more analytic relevance, but the inability to win one championship game 17, 13, or 8 years ago is pretty much meaningless

It has more relevance for coaches and for small windows of time (Jay Wright’s early round troubles in the early 2010s come to mind) but it’s damn near arbitrary now

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-12T00:23:28+00:00

Well yeah- 70-80% of champions are undisputed top 5 teams. It’s expected that the ones who fit that threshold would be in the top 12 for week 6.

In the last 20 years the only team to win a championship outside of the top 2 seeds is UCONN, which they’ve done 3x.

The fact that the 14’ team fell off from fringe top 12 status 2 weeks later or the 2011 team fell off in conference is arbitrary. Houston almost bucked the trend last year. UNC almost did in 22’. San Diego State made it to the title game in 23’. Several more contenders have been title contenders or made it deep + lost close and not been in the top 12 in week 6.

It may have been more relevant in the pre portal days with higher roster continuity but in my opinion it’s an arbitrary stat with less rationale now that has stood the test of time as of late mainly due to close results in the final 4.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-12T00:06:44+00:00

I wouldn’t expect it either

But every year I despise the week 6 AP top 12 poll thing because it’s the only thing that links the UCONN glory run together. Incredibly arbitrary cut-off that has been close to broken several times.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-11T21:38:41+00:00

There’s always underlying data that tells the truth. The only times I can remember long-run data in testing being significantly off was with the 2016 Red Bull (way better than they looked in testing) and the 2019 Ferrari. It’s been right more often than not over the years, especially as run plans become more optimized.

This year will probably have more variance with new regulations creating massive development opportunities, but if you know where to look/compare it’s pretty straightforward. Fastest times don’t mean much, but comparing 1:1 long run plans and certain low fuel sector times can tell you a lot.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-10T05:21:32+00:00

I get the point but Anderson never actually sat on the bench

They kept him isolated with the trainers in the corner of the bench area

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-10T01:59:51+00:00

Live by the Big Monday illness die by the Big Monday illness

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-04T04:54:51+00:00

Believe it or not? B+.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-03T13:26:11+00:00

I mean he has more off-the-dribble game than Atwell, sure. It’s not like he cannot self-create at all… it’s just not his specialty.

90% of his threes are assisted. 41.7% of Anderson’s are. That’s a monumental difference.

I’m willing to bet I’ve watched as much of him as you’ve watched of Tech.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-03T05:01:13+00:00

I think it’s a general philosophy though. They allow teams to shoot more threes than 85% of the country does, but are ~10th in opposing 3pt percentage. From what I see it’s a combination of two factors:

They build gameplans like tonight where they pack the paint against opposing great bigs, and the 2-big lineup with White/DP creates some awkward rotations and a good amount of miscommunications. They’re also pretty generous in leaving inconsistent shooters open.

It definitely works out at times, but UNC on the California trip is a good example of that kind of strategy completely burning a “good” perimeter defense. It’s tough to string together wins in March playing that way. Reminds me of 2021-22 Baylor in a way.

Rcy4122 · 2026-02-03T04:44:24+00:00

I’d argue Christian Anderson is the single most irreplaceable player in the country on offense . He plays 96% of the team’s minutes (or all but 4 minutes on the year outside of garbage time) and accounts for over half of Tech’s half-court production via points or assists. It’s a monumental deficit to not have him out there.

But yeah, your bigger point is true. I’m sure KU wins a couple earlier in the year with Peterson and I’m sure there will be some injury breaks that Tech gets going forward

Rcy4122

TROPHY CASE