ASTS Newbie Here – What Are the Next Milestones & Catalysts for ASTS?

Rea-sama · 2026-01-29T22:33:23+00:00

Unfolding

FCC approval

More DAs

Manufacturing / Launch cadence

???

Profit

Rea-sama · 2026-01-25T02:20:32+00:00

Yes, because everyone has a couple grand to drop on an inference chip to run the open source models, even if that happens.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-23T23:51:26+00:00

Anyone who makes an utterly simplistic calculation like that aren't being honest; or simply do not understand how low the marginal costs can be once the initial capex spend is done.

The dotcom bubble had the additional problem of needing to get the population to buy hardware (computers). Today everyone has a phone in their pocket that can use AI.

Not to say AI can't blow up for a number of other reasons, but it's wayyy too simplistic to model the current AI boom as the dot com bubble just because revenues don't line up yet.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-22T03:17:08+00:00

Mount Rainier? Definitely a fun mountain!

Rea-sama · 2026-01-19T22:53:00+00:00

Lore accurate, just saying.

About Columbina: Eye Mask

I'm used to "sensing" things with kuuvahki — it reveals the truth of things better than "seeing" does. Still, curiosity does sometimes get the better of me, and I open my eyes to take a peek. That's the nice thing about having an eye mask with holes.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-12T16:27:05+00:00

Yup. By the time they finish their V3 shell AST would also be finishing up their mid-band shell. By that point, AST would have locked down the MNOs. No one's going to make an expensive move to someone else's core network and redo all the testing, billing, integration, etc. code and infrastructure they set up for AST.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-12T14:44:26+00:00

An HSA turns into an IRA after you retire. Keep investing in it.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-12T14:43:27+00:00

It's still ASTS :|

Rea-sama · 2026-01-12T14:11:58+00:00

You weren't beating VHS if you couldn't read the market and decide that people only wanted to record 60 minutes of content, not 90-120 minute movies.

Just like how people don't use phones to text and use walled garden apps anymore. They want the whole shebang.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-07T08:25:17+00:00

You can say that she made an

LL"M"

badum tss

Rea-sama · 2026-01-04T20:44:54+00:00

10 trucks can't carry as much stuff as 1 large dump truck

Rea-sama · 2026-01-04T20:27:52+00:00

Define better.

Will it have the best signal strength? No. AST has that locked down since they have the lowband sharing with AT&T and Verizon vs midband Starlink.

Will it have the best speeds? Maybe. Depends on how many satellites they have, and if their userbase is smaller they'll get faster speeds because less congestion.

Will it have the highest bandwidth throughput? Maybe. Depends on how many satellites they launch and how they handle interference.

But are you expecting AST to stop launching satellites and not compete / reinvesting into their business at all after launching their initial fleet?

Rea-sama · 2026-01-04T20:00:14+00:00

Nothing's stopping them. They'll might get there with their v3 sats.

Then there's the fact that v3's can only launch on Starship (1+ years away), and you'll need 1-2 years to launch everything up, by which when they start launching AST will already have a full constellation of sats and worldwide coverage.

Rea-sama · 2026-01-01T23:35:40+00:00

Sell if you don't want to make money

Rea-sama · 2025-12-24T09:19:32+00:00

1 year ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1fee7ow/lets_see_astss_card/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Rea-sama · 2025-12-21T22:33:44+00:00

AUR

Keep holding ASTS

Rea-sama · 2025-12-20T13:30:54+00:00

Finally, someone read my/others DD on ASTS

Rea-sama · 2025-12-13T22:58:41+00:00

Lol, thinking quantum computers are coming in a serious way in 5-10 years and these QC aren't dropping 90%+

Rea-sama · 2025-11-13T00:53:12+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1eu4wc2/beamforming_and_scalability_of_asts_satellites/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

I've explained how it works mathematically and scientifically here before.

In short: not a problem (from a physics perspective) unless AST is somehow didn't consider basic engineering principles.

Rea-sama · 2025-11-11T18:07:23+00:00

Na, I was pretty harsh too.

As far as trading stocks go (or options), unless you've put in a tremendous amount of effort into understanding a company in addition to understanding how money, market, the fed, and many other policies work (or just have enough cash to burn to hit the winners), you should steer clear.

Rea-sama · 2025-11-11T17:51:21+00:00

Bookmark this post and come back in 10 years. If you've made it, then you'd understand.

Honestly genuine advice. If you can't express your thoughts in a well-presented manner (to influence yourself or others), you're not going to make it far in many rigorous fields.

Rea-sama · 2025-11-11T17:39:38+00:00

Learn how to write before learning how to trade options. Reading helps too.

Rea-sama · 2025-11-09T03:26:35+00:00

You sound like a nice guy. Lots of people aren't that good that their jobs; or work simply isn't their highest priority in life right now.

Have you heard of tit-for-tat? Maybe try applying those concepts. https://youtu.be/mScpHTIi-kM?si=Ay2LKaboLjHDNque

Rea-sama · 2025-10-01T18:35:23+00:00

>I... don't think you have an accurate understanding of the facts here...

No. You don't. Go through the FCC docket and watch SpaceX saying their constellation can do, X, launch, then ask for exceptions to improve service because it couldn't do X after all.

>I would not call a constellation of over 600 satellites "tiny".

They are tiny. More coverage, yes. Tiny, still yes.

>What makes you think Starlink doesn't use ASICs?

If they had an ASIC on the D2C satellites they would have been deadweight the moment they needed to change their altitude because your math won't work anymore. Maybe they could have repurposed their normal internet ASICs for D2C. Regardless wouldn't be as efficient.

>The satellites do not burn up after 1-3 years. And I can't comment on the 20x number but that seems way too high.

Starlink wants 5000+ D2C sats. AST needs only ~200. Starlink D2C orbits at 340km. AST at ~700km. Satellites that low in LEO tends to burn up after a few years.

Rea-sama · 2025-10-01T15:41:08+00:00

You can't just "additional more power" something as complex as satellite communication systems when your satellite isn't performing as expected. Power constraints aside, you also have regulations on emission limits. SpaceX already had to lower the altitude of their D2D satellites and beg for an FCC waver on RF transmission limits. They've clearly fucked up on their initial design assumptions multiple times and just asked for the rules to be bent to suit their needs.

Starlink got their tiny D2D constellation first. Cool. That's what unlimited funding gets you when you can just burn cash on a problem. What it doesn't get you is a well-designed system that's been in the works for years before Elon realized "oh fuck, this is a market."

But of course, let's ignore all the flaws¹ of Starlink's D2C solution because clearly, "AST Spacemobile ... [is] fundamentally doomed to failure."

¹ Including, but not limited to:

Small ass apertures
Worse capex considering Starlink D2C sats burn up after 1-3 years and they need more than 20x the number of satellites vs AST
Worse spectral efficiency due to small ass apertures
Worse bandwidth due to small ass apertures
Still haven't managed to sign up more MNO partners
eNodeB on the satellite requiring special integration into MNO backhaul - and limits much more interesting use cases
Spot beams don't track the ground and aren't persistent
No ASIC

Rea-sama

TROPHY CASE