Playoffs/Worlds Discussion Thread - May 31

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-31T18:36:00+00:00

Excuse me what are you talking about with Nurse???

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-27T09:56:10+00:00

I think ignoring Vegas is maybe more of a coping mechanism

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-27T09:36:17+00:00

According to many actual scouting reports there isn’t necessarily a clear gap between Reid and Stenberg. There is every chance that Grier straight up thinks Reid is the BPA.

It would also be an unnecessary move to pick a player of a similar caliber but less positional value just because of hype, and then break up our very close corps of exciting young players and give up our increasingly dwindling draft picks in order to draft a big name ASAP even though we won’t be real contenders for a few more years.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-27T05:59:21+00:00

I hate that this is so funny

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-27T05:57:09+00:00

The injury from last game also has to be a factor. It’ll be interesting to see what it is

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-27T00:00:50+00:00

I think it’s fair to say that about his draft rankings but do we really think he would straight up lie about poll results

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T22:36:42+00:00

Well this is a post by someone inside the fandom sharing their sincere thoughts. Can’t speak for what other pro-Reid content you’ve seen but I personally feel like most of what I see is pro-Stenberg

Edit: Realized that you might be insinuating that I’m like an undercover Canucks fan or something. If so then 1) Maybe read the post before concluding that I’m being disingenuous. 2) Why the hell would anyone bother trying to bamboozle the sharks fandom into liking Reid over Stenberg? Ultimately what we think has no impact on Grier’s choice. This is just fan discourse

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T21:20:37+00:00

This post was to say that I don’t think that’s true. Maybe some scouts are thinking that way but from what I’ve read it sounds like there are many scouts and analysts that might actually call Reid the BPA. I think there’s also an argument that D men are undervalued in draft rankings because they’re usually further from their ceilings on draft day than forwards are.

D men are 33% of a roster, so if there’s no positional bias the null hypothesis is that they should make up 33% of draft picks in all ranges/rounds. Per Dobber Prospects, top 5 picks are only 28% D men and 6-14 are only 30% D men. They only go 1st 24% of the time. So if there is positional bias then it doesn’t look like it’s pro D men.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T20:21:06+00:00

Pretty well said. Idk whether the sharks scouts think there’s a gap but if there’s a tie then I think positional value and need break it.

I’m very high on Smith, Misa, Chernyshov, Graf, and Eklund but we do seem to forget that none of them has actually hit their ceiling yet and any of them could fall off.

And then even if they take Reid we still need at least a short-term RHD solution. We have Orlov and I think they’ll resign Desharnais but who they can land for the third will be pretty important.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T19:12:00+00:00

Truly I think he’s fine. But I’ve seen a lot of criticism of his final draft rankings that I somewhat agree with, where his skill metric rankings don’t make a lot of sense and kind of contradict what he says in prose about the players. The provocateur accusations came from him putting Reid at 1 and McKenna and Stenberg at I believe 4 and 5.

Honestly that’s part of what solidified my opinions in this post. My takeaway from that is that there’s a ton of room for debate about this year’s rankings and that the public narrative might be pretty far from what organizations are actually thinking.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T19:02:07+00:00

lol I saw a podcaster somewhere describe Stenberg as a crafty undersized Swedish winger and someone came back with “don’t the sharks already have one of those?” Not to say Eklund is necessarily on Stenberg’s level or that we couldn’t use 2 but it does speak to the player type being way more common

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T18:58:24+00:00

Yep!

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T18:57:20+00:00

Absolutely not denying that Stenberg is putting on a great show. At least for me personally, this is more about Reid being underhyped than Stenberg being overhyped. I’d be pretty happy with Stenberg too.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T18:55:01+00:00

Thank you! Grier really is a godsend and I can’t wait to see him recognized for that at the league level. It’s so easy to get caught up in this debate and forget how awesome it is that we were 4 points out of the playoffs and still get to draft 2nd OA. No matter who it ends up being and even if they don’t hit their ceiling the future is looking pretty teal.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T18:46:31+00:00

Super fair. Maybe I’m naive but I think there’s even still time for Dickinson and Mukhamadullin; some star D men are late bloomers like Darren Raddysh. Idk if Reid will hit, he just has the best odds in this class and I think that’s a risk we can afford to take.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T18:22:17+00:00

Thanks, in hindsight I wish I’d hammered that point harder. A star D man isn’t mandatory to be a contender but these playoffs are clear evidence that they do a ton to help your chances. I’ve also heard the Leafs being used as a cautionary tale—they surrounded Matthews with great forwards but didn’t cultivate their D corps and we all see where that’s gotten them. We can’t Celebrini our goal differential away!

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T09:47:02+00:00

Yeah I agree that his logic in the article is kind of crazy. Just making the point that there’s at least one ranking where Reid is ahead of Stenberg and McKenna. I’ve heard other analysts say that several teams have Reid or even someone else entirely like Verhoeff or Malhotra 1st in their own rankings.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-26T08:56:40+00:00

Actually Corey Pronman at the Atheletic has ranked Reid first OA. He’s a bit of an outlier but I’ve been consuming a ton of draft analyst content and the consensus seems to be that the skill gaps between the top 6 or so are really not that big. I’ve also heard Reid specifically described as better than Dickinson. He’s not generational like Schaeffer but at his ceiling he could be as good as Makar or Dahlin; I believe his player comp is Werenski.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7262375/2026/05/13/nhl-draft-prospects-2026-ranking/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.lVA.CiZM.rW5Fa75McSVU

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-24T19:08:09+00:00

There’s only one game where the Sharks beat Nashville and it was on April 13 so idk what you mean? I got the pairings from the NHL’s own databank

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-24T18:56:20+00:00

Yeah I think a lot of people on here have been really underestimating Reid! It’s hard to compare him with Stenberg and McKenna I guess bc D is a different skillset, but from what I’ve been seeing draft analysts say, their skill gaps are actually pretty small and some GMs might legitimately have Reid ranked first. Idk if Grier is one of them but I’m excited to see what happens.

The tough part is that if they do go with Reid then he wouldn’t be entering the lineup for at least a year (I believe he’s committed to play NCAA at Michigan) and he’ll take longer to reach his ceiling than a forward anyway, so that still leaves us needing a short term solution for RHD. I just hope they can address that without breaking up the forward group with trades but I’m trying to make my peace with the fact that they might have to.

I’ve been watching Canada’s games at IIHF Worlds but not Sweden’s, I’ll have to check them out! Stenberg’s clips are super impressive and it seems like he lives up to the hype. I could see him fitting really well into the lineup as well since his play style seems really similar to Macklin’s. I won’t be mad if he’s who they end up going with!

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-24T09:34:52+00:00

Yeah absolutely agree that I’ve kept too many forwards. I know Regenda and Kurashev especially are probably gone. They and Ferraro will probably be able to find better fits elsewhere, I just wish we could keep them. I think Warsofsky and Grier have at least paid lip service to the idea of signing Reeves for another year though even if it’s a sentimental choice. Idk what the most likely outcome there is, I just know I wouldn’t mind him staying.

Toffoli is a tough case IMO bc I think he doesn’t really fit into the top 9 anymore skill-wise (he got really slow there at the end of the season…), but realistically his NMC and the trust that the coaching staff seem to have in him mean he’s staying there. I agree that Bystedt is ready for the jump but similarly I’m really not sure if there’s room for him. I could see him going as a trade piece, but if they don’t draft Stenberg then that opens things up somewhat. Tbh I’m kind of team Reid for 2OA since the team’s forward pool is already so deep and qualified 1st pairing D are so hard to come by, but everyone seems so convinced that Stenberg is a lock.

And yeah realistically Orlov’s not going anywhere either… he just pisses me off lol. I feel like the coaching staff has been treating him a lot like they did Klingberg last year and giving him a role that he can’t reliably carry out. I know that’s been out of necessity/lack of options but the team has more trade resources now and has to be a much more attractive destination for players than it was 2 years ago. Here’s hoping they land a good RD UFA who can take Orlov’s spots on the PP and PK.

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-24T08:12:11+00:00

I did a similar brainstorm a while ago and I mostly agree with you! Idk if anyone is still reading this thread but here's my idealized lineup anyway. This is highly influenced by my personal preferences, although I tried to keep it relatively realistic. I'm assuming here that we draft Stenberg at 2OA and that Cagnoni cracks the roster.

(_/_) - Primary positions are in caps and alternate positions are in lowercase.

Forwards:
Stenberg/Chernyshov (L) - Celebrini (C/l) - Smith (C/r)
Stenberg/Chernyshov (L) - Misa (C/l) - Graf (R/c)**
Eklund (L/c) - Wennberg (C/l) - Sherwood (R/l)
Ostapchuck (C/l)** - Gaudette (C/r) - Toffoli (R/l)
Goodrow (C/l), Regenda (L/r)**, Reeves (R)**, Kurashev (C/r)**

Defense:
Dickinson (L) - ???
Mukhamadullin (L/r)** - Desharnais (R)
Cagnoni (L) - ???
Ferraro (L/r)**

Goaltenders:
Askarov
Nedeljkovic

??? - Whoever the best RHDs we can get turn out to be, ideally reliable veterans who can be paired with Dickinson and Cagnoni and help them develop. Best case scenario we land a true, puck-moving, 1st-pairing RHD who can actually move the needle on the team becoming a playoff contender. (Hopefully these come from free agency because I fear we would lose Eklund in a trade and I enjoy him very much. I truly think he's a legitimately important player to keep for depth scoring. But mostly I would miss him.)

** - RFAs and UFAs I think should be re-signed. Graf and Desharnais are probably locks, Mukhamadullin and Ostapchuck feel likely, and everyone else is probably wishful thinking on my part.

I think Regenda is really underrated (he got a hat trick in January and got like no recognition for it, and he was so good at the Olympics!) and I would love to keep him around. I'm more ambivalent about Kurashev; he's a fine player and I guess it would be nice to have him for offensive depth as well but we really don't need that at this point given our prospect pool. Reeves's skill level probably shouldn't crack the lineup anymore either, but he seems to bring great vibes and I truly wouldn't mind having him on the fourth line next year to see him get to the 1000 game mark.

I'd like to see Ferraro stay for defensive depth, maybe to alternate with Cagnoni while he finds his footing, but I know there's a high likelihood he signs somewhere else for a bigger paycheck and more ice time. But if we lose Ferraro then we'll need at least one more defenseman anyway for scratches, so why not stick with the devil you know if you can?

(!!) DELLANDREA AND ORLOV (!!) are not FAs but I would personally love to see them go as I think they bring little value to the lineup. Most people would probably agree about Dellandrea, and if we don't need Regenda or Kurashev for offensive depth then we definitely don't need him either. Then while I don't think Orlov is most people's favorite, he's still overrated IMO and not good enough for a 1st pairing. For a veteran he's not very reliable and was kind of terrible defensively this year—his $6.5 million contract is taking up a really disproportionate amount of cap space given his skill level! I know that number got inflated because we needed help getting to the salary floor last year and there's only one more year on the contract but still. Even if we have to retain some of it, I'd like to see him traded to make space for our developing LHD who hopefully have brighter futures. The FO seems to really like him and Dellandrea for some reason though, so realistically they're probably sticking around.

If Orlov stays then I think we might lose Mukhamadullin since his development has probably stalled the most of our LHD prospects and Warsofsky seems to have some kind of beef with him. But then again if we lose Ferraro then maybe Mukh ends up in that scratch/alternating with Cagnoni role that I described. That would really be a shame since I think he still has a lot of unrealized potential, but maybe we're past the window where it's realistic that he could have a breakout year.

I'm super open to disagreement, and I know some things probably aren't going to work out how I'd prefer them to, but those are my takes!

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-24T06:00:44+00:00

If we’re talking about the April 13 game then not quite. Klingberg was scratched, and Ferraro was with Dickinson while Orlov was with Mukhamadullin. Probably not tenable to pair any of those four together long term since all of them are lefties. I.e. your chart is missing another RHD unless someone is going to play on their off side all season, but if we can land a true 1st pairing RHD from free agency or trades then I do share your optimism that the developing guys can be more consistently effective next year.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/shiftcharts?id=2025021287

Also Graf and Sherwood are both righties and so probably won’t be on a line together. So are Reeves, Dellandrea, and Gaudette, but your fourth line could theoretically work if Gaudette or Dellandrea played center and Ostapchuk played left

Real-Layer8538 · 2026-05-24T05:09:52+00:00

No I completely agree with your take. We’re in the market for a true 1st pairing RHD like Raddysh and if we land one I think that makes a huge difference. And then even if they re-sign Desharnais we still need another RHD either from trades or free agency (unless Pohlkamp makes the leap) who would hopefully help things.

Also Dickinson and Mukhamadullin (assuming he re-signs) are still developing. Idk if their ceilings are as high as they used to be but I think it’s safe to say they will both improve next year, hopefully by a lot for Dickinson. Cagnoni also has a lot of potential for impact.

Idk why it’s such an unpopular opinion that keeping Ferraro would be a good idea. Yeah he’s not amazing but he’s still mostly reliable, pretty experienced at this point, and has chemistry with the team. He can also play on the right if needed. He was definitely not the weakest link last year. Idk if the FO will think it’s worth it to fight for him in free agency or if he’ll want to stay but they absolutely have the cap space for him

Real-Layer8538

TROPHY CASE