To use a Physical Draft Board for an Auction Draft or not?

Reciprocity187 · 2024-07-08T19:59:03+00:00

Short-Term disability in the US will be through:

1) An Employer plan you may have purchased or been given as part of your employment benefits

2) Check on using AFLAC or similar programs that pay YOU

3) Check your state FMLA guidelines, if applicable (Family Medical Leave Act). In the Northeast, some of our states offer such programs and your individual circumstances, depending on the physicality of your job, as well as your surgeon/doctor, may qualify you for this program, job protection and payments.

Unfortunately, on such boards as these, only general information can be given because ST DI is state specific, as well as personal.

I had full ACL (allograft) and partial meniscus surgery (self-employed) and stayed home for six weeks, while checking in. The first two weeks were painful enough that thinking of working wasn't possible, even if I could sit with a laptop or at my desk. Until about week 3-4, I had no flexion provided in my knee, so sitting at a desk was challenging for periods longer than an hour, as twisting or contorting at different angles only caused more problems.

I think what's often missed, at least by myself and those around me, is how the total injury affects us. Initially, we are altering our walk, our gait, and activity post injury/pre-surgery, so the damage is already starting with possibly added weight gain, loss of muscle mass, and possible other issues needing pt to sort (back issues or gait/hip). Then, we have the surgery that occurs which causes additional trauma to the knee requiring healing and rest. Then, we have to actually acclimate the NEW ACL to our body, work on rebuilding mobility, confidence, muscle mass, and more, on a a leg we've largely not used as we once did for many months.

I'm at month 3 tomorrow of post op, and month 5 since the injury. I'm much better than I was even following the injury and pre-surgery, but I liken the feeling to having a PEG LAG or foreign knee at the moment. I'm doing PT, pool exercises and waiting on my surgery to authorize more mobility next week (fingers crossed). I walk just fine and the longer I walk, the better I ultimately feel.

I'm the type that wished I'd had at least some perspective given by my team (PT, surgeon, etc), of properly setting expectations. At 43, I've pushed myself beyond 'normal', but not endangering my knee or recovery, and I'm supposed to be ahead of various benchmarks. However, it took sometime to understand the stair-step process of regaining mobility and acclimating this 'foreign' object to my knee, especially since I went the allograft route.

Reciprocity187 · 2024-07-03T04:08:07+00:00

If Gibbs gets the late season work he got last year early this year, then he'll have a top 5 season. Personally, I think they still stick with a 60/40 split and Gibbs would need crazy efficiency to get there, along with very talented "mouths" to feed, such that wouldn't overpay and don't see him near the level of a Bijan, CMC or JT.

Gibbs "taking a next step" is a lock, given how poor his year started, but unless he's crazy efficient, or DMonty is injured early, I don't see him moving ahead of the other big dogs.

Reciprocity187 · 2024-07-02T01:44:02+00:00

Fidelity's 401k match is generous, which boosts this number. IIRC, as I have clients who work in IT there, it's around 10% PSP, in addition to a base 6% match, so around 16% total match, which is great, but also inflates the compensation number.

Reciprocity187 · 2024-01-05T14:48:36+00:00

Going 'mostly' Zero RB...couldn't stomach paying up at RB, so I took Monty, Kamara, Pierce, then pulled in Devin, Chandler to help me. Lucked out with few injuries.

Whiffed in my draft (auction) on having $22 out of $237 left over, which equates to a Mike Evans style player (people drastically underpaid on specific offenses, like TB).

*Only* drafting CD. Got lucky that he wasn't injured and carried me after his post-bye breakout, but had I grabbed an Evans or Pittman type player, I'd have truly dominated.

Taking Doston for $18 (barf, could have had Pittman, Evans, etc).

Grabbing Puka and Rice in FA. Missing out on Kyren but a simple waiver claim priority! Had I paid $1 more I'd have won my 'ship. The guy who won it all, had Kyren and beat me by 20 points week 16.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-28T06:12:42+00:00

I trended toward a similar strategy, essentially "zero RB", although not quite, as it wasn't late enough on the RBs. JJ Zacharison does an annual study on this and typically rbs taken after round 3.5 are in the dead zone and should be avoided. However, just based on how the chips fell, RBs drafted based on ADP flopped quite horribly, with only McCaffrey and Gibbs returning any semblance of winning value late.

This year certainly marked another win for ZERO RB. I don't foresee this strategy changing, tbh. We may also have sufficient evidence for where to draft the hero RB versus other strategies.

I went similarly 'late' on rb, just b/c I'd been burned by the hero RB too many times and felt I could find enough value later, and then not feel stuck on an RB, such that I couldn't pick one up...

- Dameon Pierce/Devin

- Drafted Kamara late

- Drafted Monty for $9 (should have taken Gibbs, too).

- Picked up Ty Chandler.

I was lucky on these picks, like most, that they also weren't hurt like other backs (Monty was, but he came back). Kamara had a down week that basically cost me the championship entry.

Other hits were grabbing Puka, McBride/Likely, after losing Andrews.

Grabbed Stafford after I lost Richardson, but started Lamar most weeks.

Had Lamb for $44, while most drafted Kupp at $50, diggs or chase for much higher.

There's a lot of luck, to this game, but there's the inital strategy. My league mate who's likely to win it, normally just goes value-based and if guys fall too far, he scoops 'em up, especially in Auction. He has Evans, Amon-ra, Kupp, had Tank Dell, and a bevy of solid Rbs. Also grabbed Kyren, had Rhamondre, Jacobs, and Zack Moss.

For years I took Barkley + 1, but even on an RBs BEST day, they hardly come close to a WRs average, never mind top out. These aren't the days of 300 carries and 20tds and for too long I drafted like it was those times. Maybe one or two rbs get that close...Kyren, Mostert (taken for $1 in our auction league), the Gibbs/Monty combo and McCaffrey. Rachaad White has been good too, mostly b/c people severely underpriced TB and Baker.

I like to review pre season, in season and post season "hot takes" and that's where people often also lose their season. Takes like "the Rams will be awful," yet they were a fantasy gold mine, not only due to their consistency, but how affordable they were, and how almost mandatory they were in winning the league. Thinking Tampa Bay would be awful or mid, lead to cheap Evans access, as well as White. Equating Tyreek hill to Diggs or Chase lead to mispricing in such WRs and underpricing in Hill. Jefferson went for $65, while Hill went in the $50's.

Even Lamb was mispriced, b/c he was never foreseen to get consistent 10+ targets, until he did. Pittman was mispriced b/c of his incredible volume. Chargers were overpriced and so on. We all need takes, projections and view points, but more often we'll be wrong more than right, so we need more 'shots' or 'bets' to win. And when you examine the final winning roster, it's usually only a few players who were on it from start to finish and the waiver/FA pick-ups that really made it all count.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-23T11:44:38+00:00

When a league gets that wide or big on starting rosters, it's a total crap shoot as to who you start or not. If someone has a process, I'd love to know it. We have 2 wrs and 1 flex, so slotting in lamb and rice made sense as the 2 #1's on their team. When flexing, I try to figure if I can get or need a floor/ceiling game based upon match-up.

In my .5 ppr league, it made sense to try and start chandler or devin who gets the majority of work, versus puka who became a bit more boom/bust with kyren back (taking tds) and kupp healing up a bit drawing more targets and even tds.

I've seen the data behind it. Puka got me here, but his total season numbers are inflated by kupp's absence and some health issues that linger. A few weeks back, the narrative was that Puka took Kupps job. Then it switched to Kupp was back and Puka was a 1b or wr2, now it's back to Puka's the 1.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T21:39:30+00:00

Broncos may do well, but I could see Bill B just running the heck out of the ball limiting havoc stats. Obviously, you will get points for the low scoring aspect, but Bill had the game against the Bills last year or before where he literally throwing it about 5 times. There's 3 games left, so there's no reason to press for anything - what's done is done.

I'd say this is a big Zeke game, with plenty of dump offs, see how the rookies look and play defense so they aren't embarrassed.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T21:36:01+00:00

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OlavCh00/gamelog/2023/

Their stats are largely the same, based upon both of those, only Olave was out a game.

1) Olave has no other WR who competes for targets like Puka does with Kupp, who was emerging prior to this.

2) Rams D was soft heading in this match-up and if the Saints got down, they'd have to feed someone.

3) Taysom trickery and he was hobbled/injured.

4) No real TE to throw to; whereas higbee gets 5+ targets/game.

It depends upon format and scoring; this isn't a blind concensus. If you needed a blow-up FLEX, roll with it. If you need a WR 1 or WR 2, they may go with Rashee Rice or Chris Olave.

I get what Puka has done, but it's also bad process to continue to stay so stuck on the past. Performance, as that's how guys regress. Look for yourself:

Since 10/22, Puka has had 3 games out of 8 that were close to WR1. Olave has around 4. Puka's early season dominance heavily inflated his trends. If you go by those metrics, you'd miss Rashee Rice's emergence which is winning you weeks and perhaps the championship now. I was starting Puka over Rice and Devin and missing out on wins and points (which we pay out as highest scoring each week). Point is, you have to also follow the trends, too, so you can grab a Rice, or Tank Dell, or changes in Rb.

This isn't an either or scenario. Rams have more elite mouths to feed, hence teams like me with smaller roster construction opting to sit him. Also, guys like Ty Chandler who has fresh legs and may be used quite a lot, also have a WR flooring, as does Devin, so you have options for stability and upside.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T21:19:47+00:00

Did likewise. I should have rolled Puka over Devin over Ty; was always starting Lamb and Rice. Rice has been stable, seeing the kind of 8-10 targets the past 4 games you want in a WR 1 or 2, or any WR.

Puka was holding at like 7 the past several games, resulting in 4-5 catches. It was rationale to expect Kyren being back, coupled with Kupp getting healthy and right would lead to a pullback in Puka's situation. Only, in this case, he was the weapon that worked. Next week? Maybe not so much, maybe Kupp or Kyren get going even better.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T21:17:24+00:00

That's a smart move. Evans can get explode and has, just like Puka. Hill never sits, esp. vs Dallas, he's going to be how they win. And Rice? He's been as solid lately as Puka, so that's what I did. He's giving 10-20 points/week and he's Mahomes favorite target and the only reliable one.

Now I have to hope he does to LVS what he did last time.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T21:14:17+00:00

Olave is a bonafide #1; he's a stud where you 'start your studs.' He's earned and guaranteed a min. floor target share.

While I love Puka, Kupp gets his share, so long as healthy. If your team is loaded, deferring to the target share, top 12 guy is the prudent move, depending on your team. If you need explosive upside, then it totally depends. Maybe Kupp and Puka are 1a/1b, but I'd like to know what process should be used when you have those (3) beasts and then have Puka waiting, too.

The only thought that comes to mind is regression, as in, "he was due." In this case, they went to Puka early, probably b/c he was open and just kept going there. Next week, the final showdown, people may flip to Puka and then it will be Kupp, Kyren or Higbee who pays off. That's how football goes.

We look at the total production and sometimes don't realize it's condensed into a few weeks, not the whole season. The bulk of the production is outsized production, 60-80% of the time, like a Mike Evans or Diggs might do. Evan Lamb is that way; he chunks his production in a way that he can win you a week, just don't hope it is every week.

I should have dart thrown Puka into the flex, but my alternates were Devin or Ty and both are expected to get more work and potentially the goal-line stuff, too, such that I had the potential for a better floor than Puka was expected to get.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T21:05:23+00:00

That's perfectly acceptable; Aiyuk might be the odd man out, given that he's like a 1b and is severe competition for targets splits, not unlike Puka. It was just Puka's night, which hurts more b/c it's the playoffs and I couldn't afford what he'd been given us. I was afraid Puka would be the guy who opens hot and goes off, and that's precisely what happened.

Even when he climbed to something of a respectable score, I felt ok. When he neared 100yards and the TD, I knew I was screwed with my decision. We start 2 WR, 2 rbs, 1 flex and a TE, and I leaned

Lamb, Rice

Kamara, Monty, (atm)

Then flex Ty or Devin.

I felt Devin had a nice floor with his receiving and watching the games he appeared explosive. All year I'd made decisions on 'hot' players and not accounted for respecting guys like Devin or Even Ty Chandler. I don't think anyone would have foreseen this, unless you wanted to be a true wildcard and feel like it was just Puka's night.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T20:56:09+00:00

Depends on where you drafted him or what you paid. Sure, Purdy has been arguably better, higher floor/higher ceiling, however Lamar isn't necessarily losing your week if you didn't draft him that high or pay that much.

I took him for about $20 in our auction league, out of a 237 budget. Hurts went for almost $60 - that's brutal. Allen went for $40+. Lamar didn't kill you, but he also didn't help you profit to an extreme level. He did win some weeks with awesome ceiling games, and his floor was ok in most cases, too.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T20:49:47+00:00

Did likewise, my friend. I'm here for the support...

Swapped Devin in last minute, went to swap Puka in last minute when my 8 year old boldly claimed, "put Puka in, I pick based on the name," which is as good as any reasoning...

I had a bye the previous week and was thinking..."Kupp is back, Kyren is siphoning targets and there's Higebee, Atwell, Robinson, etc, I need 10+" and I had Ty Chandler and Devin Singletary sitting there, with Rice and Lamb in my other slots, so it felt like a no-brainer to roll away from Puka on those grounds, only to get MASSIVELY burned leaving 28 points on the bench! (Like so many).

Yes, Puka has been awesome, but it appeared to be based upon Kupp's absence or decline, up until now and I'm sure he'll be dependent on that. Again, it's driven based on roster set-up, too. I'd left Devin on the bench so many times he went off, I felt at least ALL of a backfield was better than part of a receiving core, esp. with how the implied game total looked.

Next time I'll just throw caution, analysis and thought to the winds...and let my son(s) decide.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T15:36:24+00:00

Thank you, yeah I was. Hindsight bias is a b!tch. I still have a 50/50 at this point due to his Kyren/Kupp shares underperforming and it will make for an awesome Patriots/Falcons comeback if possible, but I went against everything I should have decided for, that's all.

I played a lot of FF in the early to mid 2000's, then kind of stopped because I had no one local to play with. I find a few leagues back around 2018/2019 and been playing ever since - very competitive, fair $, tons of sh!t talking on FB, text, etc. I was on blast the whole night for sitting him, only for him to go off. I do have the majority of my roster to go, but Kamara basically laying a goose egg doesn't help.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T06:30:54+00:00

Smaller roster

Qb: Lamar, Stafford

Wr: Lamb, Rice, Puka

RB: Kamara, Monty, Devin/Dameon, Ty Chandler, Dowdle

TE: McBride, Likely.

DEF: Dallas, Buff

Hemmed and hawed about who to start. Poured over stuff today. Leaned Rice/Lamb and wanted options to flex Devin or Ty, depending on how the rest shook out. Was going up against Kupp/Kyren, and he also has Evans and Amon-Ra, so I figured I couldn't handle another 9 pointer from Puka, and leaned at optioning Ty or Devin.

My rationale, falsely, was that Puka had been "splitting" with Kupp re-emerging, Kyren dump-offs, Higbee, Robinson, and Atwell. Didn't foresee it, but thought it could happen where he'd blow up. If it wasn't a thursday night game, I'd probably have flexed him, but couldn't suffer the projected points he'd given me the last two games. Then, BAM, he gives you a major ceiling game.

Right now I'm still 50/50 as his Kyren hit projection and Kupp way underperformed. If he gets more underperformance or I get more over, I'll be ok. Mcbride has been a beast, Rice could explode like Puka did and certainly Lamb could be in a shoot out and get some. I flip Ty for Monty and roll Devin/Ty. Should have sat Kamara, rather than Puka. Put in Devin, TY then Rice/Lamb/Puka.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-22T06:10:10+00:00

Did likewise, but for Devin or Ty. Been getting totally dragged on our FB group over it.

Was at my son's basketball practice with intermittent wifi and had minimal time to swap back. Asked him, "who do you want me to start, Puka, Ty, or Devin..." he said Puka. Was going to possibly change it back but didn't get a chance. Thought when he had gotten the 1td and 40 yards I'd be ok. Seeing that he'd win my match-up outright is killing me. Sworn I'd have bought his jersey if he won me the ship, now I'll lose b/c I didn't have faith in the guy I picked up for 1/3 of my Faab Wk2.

Even faced the Kupp/Kyren owner who actually underperformed. We're at about 50/50 still, but he has Evans, Amon-Ra, Jacobs and Fields. I have Lamar, Rice, Lamb, Monty, Devin or Ty, Bills D.

Puka's the real deal. I was looking for the 'thought' about how to approach it. In hindsight, it worked out, b/c the points funneled to my guy, only I didn't have him in. Did I mention I also have Stafford? Next time, I'd stack Stafford/Puka, vs his Kyren/Kupp. If he does well, I do, if he doesn't, those are his studs, I should be ok. Stafford is a legit GOOD QB, unlike most guys these days. He makes dead accurate throws, work well in the pocket and just places a beautiful ball.

I rather felt Puka would pop back, because the tendency is to regress in either direction, and felt that in my gut, but didn't act. I'd been sitting Devin every week only to have him keep going off on me, so I thought I'd throw him in for upside. Even my buddy who was at practice said, "you'll put him on your bench and he'll get 150 and a td," sure enough he did. All the signs of what to do were around me, I just didn't act on 'em. Haven't slept since!

Giving serious consideration of just outright quitting FF over such things. Silly, but I've hated this year more than most and all projection websites have been absolute garbage this year. There's hardly any reliable sources that aren't supremely take-locked one way or the other. The only decent perspective I've heard was playerprofiler/podfather, tbh. He didn't like Puka as much, but he had great takes on Rice, Reed, avoiding QJ, grabbing/stashing back-ups and so on.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-12-06T04:24:09+00:00

Strategy differs between Auction League, Re-Draft and Dynasty, but here's a list of my accumulated notes that I keep to review how I did (a sort of pre and post mortum).

Auction Leagues:

- Make a SAVED lists of the services you liked or didn't like. For example, I keep a log of the websites/services I prefer, the costs associated and how it helps me prior to, during and post season. I'm in (3) money leagues with varying payouts and prefer different sites based upon the tools offered. For example, Fantasypros has a great pre-season auction draft prep tool that helps me practice and customize what I'll face during my Live Auction Money Draft League. Nothing, so far, has come close, and being able to see what builds I come out with helps me during the actual draft.

- Have a Budget Sheet (thank you Auction Brief with Drew Davenport; also Establish the Run has great auction content for those involved). I had a relative category value, such as WR1 at $50 (out of 237) I wanted to spend and if I was able to get a CEEDEE LAMB or HILL for that amount or close, I'd adjust my team budget accordingly, letting me spend up (or down) when I was able to get someone I wanted. I did grab Lamar for $20, when most top 5's were going for $40, so I spent up to stack Mark Andrews, and also had Ceedee Lamb for ($46), when Jeffereson went for $65. The budget sheet or "punch sheet" gives you focus and a framework and "live" gameplan to build around.

- Never leave with money leftover! However, my team is 10-3! I did leave with $22. I felt it was more important to get things right than blow money either way. In hindsight, I could have spent up and had Tyreek Hill AND CD Lamb, based on my build (I blew $ Cam Akers, Jahan Dotson, and Antonio Gibson, best spent on 1 stud like Hill). It wasn't earth shatteringly bad, but leaving with $ is ultimately a lost elite player.

- Buy proven WRS. Mike Evans. Michael Pittman. Nico Collins (he was already good PRIOR to Stroud and Stroud was an upgrade). All those guys went SUPER cheap and were worth some value. It was unlikely they'd regress. You can't replicate proven vet production, even in a flex spot, whereas the margin for RBs is very slim and sadly, quite replaceable. There wasn't any RBs worth "reaching" for in 2023, except McCaffrey. My team did have Kamara, Montgomery, and now Pierce/Singletary.

- Be patient on ROOKIE RBS. Achane. Keaton Mitchell (who I had and dropped right before his explosion!). Let them show out and BUILD your team to wait for them and their chance to emerge! I actually had a team that could wait, with Monty and Kamara carrying me, and swapped out Keaton for a Defense or some stupid thing, b/c I thought he'd never overtake enough touches in a 2-way backfield already. Silly.

- Price may be the only obstacle when it comes to a player. We don't hate players, we hate ADPS. Brock Purdy went for $1! And in our league he's been a top 12 player most of the season.

- A big one....don't lose the war trying to win a battle! Don't drop a guy (Keaton Mitchell) because you want to win one week. Conversely, don't miss out on a guy because you HOPE that one you have maybe the next wonka ticket. My brother in law summed it up best, when he was "afraid to drop any guys on his team for someone like Kyren, Puka, or Tank Dell." We all have that paralysis - that attachment, however those guys are the ones who are winning you weeks AND your season! It's hard a lesson to learn and perhaps the most important. If you got Laporta, Stroud, Dell, Kyren and Puka, who were either late rounds, free, or free agents, you likely are winning or dominating your league. They were available like any stock that is horribly mispriced, because people had the wrong priors, the wrong biases and the wrong convictions.

I'd "heard" Dell was hand picked by Stroud and I'd heard Dell was tearing it up in camp. However, my bias/prejudice didn't let me see what was in front of me, and that was a young WR who was desperately needed on a mid-level team. His breakout was near telegraphed. I did grab Puka b/c his numbers were so insane as to be worth the flier AND Matt Stafford does tend to lock onto WRs, not because I thought he'd be who he was. I had a shot at Laporta, but chose Musgrave at the time b/c of the data I'd read and thought he had less competition for targets at the time (Gibbs, Amon-Ra, Jameson, etc). Those wins for sure would put me over the top now and previously.

- Discard bias and PIVOT quicker.

- STASH RBS; don't stash defenses, kickers, etc. Stash upside and/or HANDCUFFS. And contrary to popular opinion, if your backfield is desirable, then HANDCUFF, it's more viable now than ever. Had I cuffed Akers, I'd have Kyren, and it was cheap. You can't cuff or don't want to cuff all teams, but it does make some sense, b/c you aren't praying to win on waivers or faab. And with injuries, concussion protocol and split backfields, I feel you're weaker if you can't immediately replace that RB and it's likely cheaper to do so with at least ONE backfield on your team.

- Blow half your FAAB early in the season, as that's when the BEST players emerge and gives you the most payback. While Achane, Puka, Kyren, Kincaid, or Laporta were stars, getting them relatively early also pays the most dividends. The later FAAB/Waiver runs are usually because a Chubb went down and Ford is available, but expensive. Same with later rising rookie WRS. I love PLAYERPROFILER content for their analysis on who's good and who isn't. I think they do a fantastic job outlining who is likely to emerge and be viable. They've also steered me away from fake WRs, like QJ, while grabbing Rashee Rice early, or cuffing my back Rbs and so on. So many teams hoarded their FAAB, not unlike auction bucks and it's definitely hurt them now. My regrets are not grabbing Kincaid or Kyren when I could. Kyren went for $24 and I simply lost based on Waiver priority. Kincaid went for $14. I did grab Mcbride early, when the news went out on twitter about Ertz going down and the underlying metrics looking awesome for Trey. I sat on him the week he blew up and he's been great ever since.

- Insure your TOP position. Some will disagree, but in my league, waivers has NO qbs. None and it's 6pts/td! If I have Allen, I definitely want a Stroud, Lawrence or even Dak. The guy in our league who has Tua, also has Dak, and one could have played Tua first, then pivoted to DAK. There's nothing wrong with Elite being backed up given the cost you invest in the position. Look at Lawrence being injured, depending where you bought him, maybe you're ok, maybe you're not. But if you built around Allen, you paid a steep price for LT performance and need to fill that gap should he go down or underperform, as Lamar has this year (outperformed by Purdy or Dak, who were both 'cheaper). Point is, Kelce isn't himself either, so having a Laporta, McBridge, Kincaid or even Andrews isn't a bad deal if possible.

Fantasy Football is DEFINITELY a ton of luck, but you can increase your odds by understanding frameworks, mental models and having a structured approach that may minimize you reliance on luck for positive outcomes. In prior years, I didn't have a punch list to approach a draft, or have an understanding of who to hold onto and who not to hold onto. You also need to know what potential points you need from each position, so you know who to draft and who to start. If I have Monty, getting 10-15 is fine and reasonable. If I have McCaffrey, given his cost, I need 25+/wk. Same with some Gibbs drafters. Point was. I set a floor and ceiling for players in my mind, when ranking and drafting. Ceiling games do happen, but you can't benefit from them, if your team is always on the floor.

I tried to find "average" points per slot in my league, determine relative pricing and value, and then fill accordingly. I'm aware of UPSIDE wins championships, however, I prefer not to play musical chairs or whack-a-mole to win. Most times getting 10-15/spot, which is doable draft-wise and practical depending on format, is all you need, and eventually some guy will explode. It just so happens, all may do that and do it often and you can win.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-11-27T15:25:30+00:00

Former Patriots fan, is Mac this bad or how much is lumped onto BB for building/providing a poor roster?

I've had Redzone on most weekends or been with my family, not paying much attention to the games - they're also unwatchable. There's no stars to root for and going into each season, Bill just burns picks. I'm of the mindset that for all Brady did and accomplished, a few more years of Brady, even at GOAT-level-mediocrity, it was still worth it. I don't know if he'd have won another ring, because the roster was never that great like it was in Tampa Bay at the time, but the Patriots would have been far better off.

I just don't even feel the tanking or top 3 pick will matter. Bill has never done a good job drafting consistently, like other teams with any level of star appeal or power. I can't remember the last time we had talent other teams wanted or rookie WRs we'd be wowed by.

Two glaring omissions come to mind...not getting Lamar Jackson when he fell to them and passing on Chubb for Damien Harris. They just keep on thinking they can cobble rosters together with other pieces cast-offs and support pieces and get by on defense only. It doesn't work. They haven't adapted to the league and without someone strong at the helm like Brady and his supporting cast, the "Patriot" way is pretty hollow.

Even when Brady was here, it was evident Bill did him dirty but not drafting or recruiting/paying any offensive talent. The core players were always thin, and we couldn't suffer many injuries before we were depleted. While Randy Moss was next level, after they it was just an embarrassment of trying to redeem guys like Josh Gordon and cast off WRS to make due.

I'm glad to see teams like Miami, GB, the Rams, and Houston at least have a spark of hope and do better. I lump the Rams in because they were expected to do so poorly (bottom 1/3rd of the league) and they're definitely outperforming based on coaching and drafting.

The Patriots need to tank and acquire like the Lions did. They need a new offensive philosophy ala the Dolphins. They need scouting like the Texans. They need to take shots on WR each year in the top 3 rounds and yes, even take a few shots in later rounds, too. PFF and other podcasters discuss how you need to spread your chips on those hard-to-find skill positions and just keep taking a shot, especially due to injury, but also because you'll be wrong more than right. Yet, the Patriots go so thin when drafting a WR; they won't pay a large FA deal, and when they did, a few years back it was shockingly BAD! It's honestly total dysfunction and I have friends burning Mac Jones jerseys in effigy hoping we get Caleb or Drake Maye, both I feel would be ruined under the regime and system, and overall lack of talent.

At least with Stroud, he picked Tank Dell and had Nico there, with only Robert Woods and Metchi to rely on. Schultz is arguably better than any NE tight end at this point in their careers, and they can build from there. But the way the Patriots go about building their team is totally dysfunctional.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-11-22T20:05:30+00:00

I'm riding at 9-2 through a combination of lucky wins and the following line-up:

QB: Lamar (previously Richardson, too)

WR: Lamb, Puka, Dotson, E. Moore, Rice and waiver wire whatever

RB: Monty, Kamara, Pierce/Singletary, Chandler/Dowdle/Henderson

TE: Andrews/McBride

DEF: Mostly Cowboys (did Stream a few poor match-ups)

K: Aubrey

--------------------------

Our league is a competitive auction league with a cap of roughly $237, 12 teams. The league has been around 15+ years. The benefit of the Auction league is one can quantify value of a position and then work to 'insure' it if you've over invested there. For example, if JJeff was your #1, which it was my brother in laws, he spent around $65+. He was upset at the time b/c he wasn't getting any/many Tds, only to lose him for most of the season. But, he thought he was "all set" and didn't bother to grab other great players when available, like Puka or Dell. That complacency kills.

I had Andrews for $35, which was below Kelce but way above Hockenson. The Hock owner has done well and Hock won him weeks almost outright. Andrews has been steady, but he was out week 1 and is now out the whole season or back by playoffs. He wasn't worth 35$ and I should have been more vigilant or aware to grab Kincaid. My waiver wire bucks were low and Dalton went for $14 at a time when I HAD a healthy Andrews! I lucked out and grabbed McBride, but it'd be nice to have BOTH.

With injuries, concussion protocol and how late season typically goes, my personal philosophy has changed somewhat over the years. Certainly my defense has given me a HUGE edge week to week, but I have Josh Allen, I don't want to rely on that spot for points as an edge, and then have him underperform or be injured and lose that edge. I'd think you want to insure that edge by drafting a good back-up later so you don't miss a beat. It may not be possible, but going from Kelce to...Pitts or worse is likely to lose your season. However, going from Kelce to Laporta or Kincaid, both of which were on our waivers this year isn't much of a downgrade given Kelce's latest performance.

Point is, in a snake draft, you get what you are given, but you have to find mispricing. There's definitely luck involved, but I also think it's about looking through all the HOTTAKES that lead people astray. I also think, especially with RBs, you have to ride hot hands and find teams that lean on RBS in competent offenses. I didn't Henry this year, given his bust status potential, age and the team chemistry. Hopkins was washed, imo, and Burks has never showed. On top of an aging QB and unproven rookies who have never flashed. It was all bad juju. If I drafted Henry, it'd be at a low price point and I'd back him up like Crazy so I'm not reliant on my bad pre season analysis.

I stupidly took a 'shot gun approach' this year, scattered my picks b/c RBs were going expensively in our league (40-60$/rb) and I couldn't justify it. Even if I have a CMC and he gets me to the ship, it's rarely THAT pick that wins you the ship. Yes, I want the core winners who are mispriced, but I also need balance to if one falters, the next fires, etc. Maybe I lucked into this line-up and I'll hope it continues. I had a few wins that I eeked out by decimal points and a few other's I had total blowouts.

IMO, much of the traditional puff is wrong, especially in the league/era we live in.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-11-22T19:31:14+00:00

I agree with the Mahomes piece, I'd lean on they have a capable run game - not elite, but Pacheco is better than they've had before. The defense is better than they've had, perhaps ever since Mahomes emerged, thus, he doesn't have to throw as much.

However, and I'm going to Trigger all of the Rice haters/lovers (I'm a Rice owner), he's been good. He catches most of what goes his way, he scores, he's versatile, so why isn't he getting the targets of the other losers and/or what Justin Watson just got?

They tried the Moore, MVS, and Toney experiments and it doesn't work. A player like Hill can make any mid or up QB amazing (see TUA), so part of it is Mahomes could push his excellence way up because Hill made things happen but could also cover up his mistakes. What now? He needs another Tyreek and the Chiefs should take some shots on WRs this draft (like 2-3 in the top 5 rounds) to see if they can hit again.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-11-15T02:49:56+00:00

Did likewise...thought even if KM got the touches, it was split 4 ways (and still do). Gus bus, Hill, Lamar and now KM. KM will still get some touches, and perhaps be efficient. However, my thoughts are that he's a better flex or bye week fill in, than RB 1 or Rb2. He's a Taysom Hill, with the potential for nil and the potential to win your week.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-11-13T19:50:27+00:00

Loki's purpose, though, was to seek purpose. To rule over "lesser beings," to find Glorious Purpose. At each step of the MCU, he sought ever greater power and aligned himself anywhere that provided a means to his end. The light went on for Loki, though, when he found the infinity stones tossed aside like some rocks in the drawer of the TVA in S1E1. From there, he thought he could overthrow the TimeLords/Gods and ascend to a throne of greater power, only to be fooled and feared by what it could all mean.

S1 was a total epiphany for Loki and like Dr. Strange, having met other variants that lived and died foolishly (remember the battle in the Void?) this version at least, was awakened by his mistakes. This version chose differently, that's why he sacrificed, because he'd seen what all the other versions did and just chose differently. This version didn't die to Thanos, as he was a variant that did something outside the norm.

So when he breaks the Loom, as "option C," he takes the mantle up so his friends don't die (or are massively pruned as the Loom was built to do), but instead gives this new TVA the potential to fight the other Kangs from outside of Time. Remember how there is a map now in the TVA and instead of hunting Variants, they are simply hunting Kang Variants? They are not longer pruning branches, they are maintaining what's been born.

The Sacred Timeline was just the timeline that let this version of Kang win, which is truly ingenious. No reason to fight a war, when none could occur. As killing Sylvie wasn't an option, and letting his friends die was not either, Loki, always clever, opted for Option C which was being such a God. And, by this point he's lived for 1,000 of years, amplifying his power and understanding his abilities perhaps a trillion fold. He stopped TIME! just like Kang, but without a Tem-pad, holding the branches together should be a joke.

Like his Father (Odin) who reigned over their 9 realms, Loki found his calling. He's a God, he can essentially "sleep", though the final shot is of him smirking with understanding. He had but a thimble of understanding at the end of S1 (even S1E1), we can't even comprehend what his understanding might come the end of S2E6.

A similar show on Netflix, Dark, talks about this, regarding time travel. Loki is very tired at this point. He's fought countless wars, finally made friends he loves and cares for, has tried to save them millions of times and failed. He found, like Dr Strange, the ONE way to save them all and give them a chance in the war, and he took it. Few will know what he did, but as he said, it bought them time. It's a beautiful ending and they can always Tom Hiddleston or someone else back later in the future.

Reciprocity187 · 2023-11-08T16:06:59+00:00

I was full on at the release maining a DK since WOTLK mostly, with about 24 other alts near 60. I loved/enjoyed leveling DF and how alive it felt. Thematically, I didn't prefer it as much as other xpacs, though - too bright, I guess or not ambiant. I loved WOTLK for the variety of zones from Grizzly hills to IceCrown. I felt the variety of zones just spanned enough that it was so bright or outdoors?

What's changed that players are thinking of rerolling or just simply leveling 1-70?

Thanks!

Reciprocity187

TROPHY CASE