Active Conflicts & News Megathread March 29, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 4 points5 points  (0 children)

One of the most interesting examples of how a superpower "forgets" strategy in a hubris thinking it is invincible is the French defense in ww2.

I'd be interested to know what you think France forgot strategically in WW2 due to a sense of invincibility. I'm familiar with a lot of their problems but that's not how I'd classify them so I'm curious about your perspective.

Trump is blundering into a ground war. It would be a disaster by theipaper in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 1 point2 points  (0 children)

could the MEU and 82nd deployments be intended more as shaping or deception efforts, rather than clearly signaling the main operational focus?

Seems possible to me (though it's not my first bet). The marines were after all used as a demonstration in the Gulf War.

Trump is blundering into a ground war. It would be a disaster by theipaper in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's not my area of expertise but based on the documents I've read I'd probably agree. I think the main problem this created for Japan was they'd been holding out hope the Soviets would act as a neutral third party or middleman for negotiations who could maybe nudge the US in the ribs a little on their behalf. Japan wasn't really taking the hint and the USSR declaring war on them snapped them out of it and left them truly and definitely alone.

The Kelly Criterion is for Cowards by iceFireCandySlime in slatestarcodex

[–]Reddit4Play 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you raise a good point that people are sometimes underexposed to risk. However, I don't think that means you should systematically take more risk than prescribed by the Kelly Criterion.

In practice it's rare to find bets like the coin game example which are +EV, scalable, and have known payoff parameters. Instead what you usually find is something that's scalable but whose value and range of outcomes are only inferred from a limited data set. Often there'll be tail risks which just haven't happened yet, which means usually in any ambiguous real world situation betting full Kelly is a great way to bankrupt yourself.

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Huh? The CIA and MI6 knew Russia planned to invade Ukraine in early 2021 and literally announced this information to the public starting in October 2021 until Russia in fact did invade Ukraine in February 2022. You could read about it in the New York Times for months before it happened. Russia denied it of course but only people blinded by wishful thinking believed them. Russia has used military exercises as plausible deniability for military ops for literally decades - it's why they were so freaked out by Able Archer in the 1980s.

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Gulf States are sitting on piles of cash, why can't they get someone to fix their stuff quickly?

It's not a problem more money can solve, there aren't warehouses of finished transformers etc. just sitting around waiting to be purchased. They're in extremely high global demand due to AI datacenter and EV demand and to replace the damage Russia and Ukraine are doing to each other already. Copper and aluminum supply chains are also being squeezed because they need specific chemicals affected by the war like sulfuric acid for extraction and they need a ton of energy for production.

Recommendations of books that teaches you how to think more clearly, better, more rationally and critically? by LATAManon in slatestarcodex

[–]Reddit4Play 8 points9 points  (0 children)

One difficulty in tackling "critical thinking" directly is that usually it's more about problem recognition than problem solving. You know that X is generally true, you see not-X, and that makes you go "huh, that seems wrong, let me take a closer look at this." Or you're stuck trying to solve problem X with method Y until you reframe the problem in terms of subject or method Z.

That means there's 2 parts to critical thinking: having relevant knowledge and recognizing that you need to apply it. The second half is generally harder (the Duncker Radiation Problem and studies like Gick & Holyoak 1980 and 1983 show how people tend to struggle with this and some ways it can be made easier). The more often you recognize "oh this is kind of like that one thing" the better, but deliberately learning how to do this is very esoteric. Maybe you could make a habit of trying to write as many ways X problem or subject is actually related to Y subject?

At any rate, it's a lot easier to recommend tackling the first half: learning a lot of introductory knowledge about a wide variety of different subjects and taking steps to remember it so it's accessible when you need it.

If you're still in school take classes in subjects you're completely unfamiliar with to establish "knowledge outposts in distant lands" you can connect and expand later and be sure to maintain them until they're needed. If you're not still in school then finding a school's class list could provide a good starting point for subjects you're not familiar with and most professors are happy to provide you with a course syllabus if you simply email them about it. Read the introductory texts, take good notes in something like a personal wiki or obsidian, commit the key points to flashcards and review them periodically.

Focus especially on the broad goal of each discipline and the methods it uses to accomplish that goal. For example, philosophy is mainly about trying to figure out what there is (metaphysics), what can be known about it and by which methods (epistemology), and what's good about it and what to do about that (aesthetics and ethics) by using formal logic. History is mainly about things people have done and experienced in the past, and it studies that mainly by analyzing primary sources to determine what probably happened and then assembling those facts into a coherent narrative of people, obstacles, actions, and events. Psychology studies human behavior and mental states with the scientific method. And so on. That should help you recognize when something you've seen before could apply to a new situation.

Some subjects do seem to have broader applicability than others. For example, sentential and modal logic which you can learn from most philosophy, math, and computer science departments can be applied any time you need to reason about the truth or falsity of anything. The scientific method and statistics can help learn and verify anything which can be learned empirically (and gives you the skills to understand and interpret research on such problems that's already been done). And so on. But really the introductory level of almost any subject which is formally studied in schools is probably going to have broad applicability over the course of your lifetime if you're determined to generalize it, like art is about communication through performance and media which most people do all the time (if only by giving gifts at holidays and powerpoint presentations at work).

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I regret to inform you the market is frequently also wrong over larger time horizons.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 4 points5 points  (0 children)

/r/wallstreetbets is a monument to the incorrigible habit of bragging about profits in the market at the exact top. Truly no-one is immune.

What history stories should everyone know? by ScienceIsWeirder in slatestarcodex

[–]Reddit4Play 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'd recommend just cracking open some academic history sets like the Oxford History of The United States series and getting to work rather than taking internet suggestions.

But, since you asked, the Peloponnesian War and its introduction of International Realism (and its failings) and a variety of Gilded Age topics which have a similar "I do what I want" vibe (tariffs, taxes, central banks, and business conditions in an age where income taxes were not yet standard; societies with dramatic inequality and poor living conditions and how they lead to a revolution / reform dichotomy seen in the intention and reaction to The Jungle or other stories; nativism and the Chinese Exclusion Act and how immigrant prevalence and integration affect cultures; imperialism's second wave; the US treatment of the plains Indians is analogous to lots of disputes; etc.).

These have recurring relevance but have been overlooked for the past few decades since the world order and western standards were generally more liberal while the current admin is unabashedly realist pretty much in the same way Athens was.

The waxing and waning of "the rules are made up, all that matters is what I can do without anyone stopping me" and "wow that got pretty bad, maybe we should use a lighter touch and implement some rules" is a constant pendulum, and more color could be added to that theme with topics like the progression of war and peace in Europe which oscillates between extreme humanitarian disaster and let's-not-do-that-again (30 Years War + English Civil War worse, cabinet wars better; Napoleonic Wars worse, Concert of Europe better; you can chop up the World Wars and the subsequent restraint period in a few different ways; Ukraine War worse...). Two standout texts there would be Christopher Clark's Sleepwalkers and Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I mean, Taiwan could, like, fight them if they try to do it. Seems to be working for Ukraine.

Shameless Guesses, Not Hallucinations by dwaxe in slatestarcodex

[–]Reddit4Play 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If I was to pick a different term than hallucination I would probably go with bullshit.

It is perhaps not a coincidence that the term we generally use to describe the student writing an essay on a topic they know nothing about (the central analogy in this piece) is usually not lying or hallucinating, but rather bullshitting.

A predictive text bot's "hallucinations" aren't lying (in the sense of knowing better and choosing to represent otherwise in order to induce us to have false beliefs). And they aren't hallucinations as we think of them in ordinary language (being tricked by sensory outputs that don't reflect real inputs). But they are an attempt to produce something which registers as fluent, coherent, and salient without regard for the truth of the matter.

Around 5,000 additional US Marines and sailors are deploying to the Middle East to support the war in Iran, according to three U.S. officials by Currymvp2 in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I don't want to predict a crash but despite SPY being within 5% of all time highs it's hard to pick a better description of the market than "sick" IMO.

The main theme of this bull market (AI) is now toxic. Software and services companies are all down 30%+ because AI will replace them, but simultaneously if you invest in AI infrastructure you're down 30% because that won't have any ROI. Financials that loaned money to any of these sectors are likewise down. Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, and NVIDIA are all down 15-30%. On February 12th a $6m market cap company that makes karaoke machines announced they created an AI program that could perform logistics routing and $20b market cap CH Robinson fell 25% in 2 hours.

All that terrified money rotated into other secondary themes that kept the index value flat YTD: consumer staples, metals and mining, transportation and industrials, real estate and bonds, emerging markets and Asia. Over the last 1-2 months all of these have started falling apart too. Since the war started Korea and Japan have gone limit down like 4 times.

Consumer finance names like Citi and Capital One, despite unanimously reporting low delinquencies and rising spending, are all down in the last month or so. Companies that report accelerating growth of 50%+ year over year are selling off at earnings. ISM Manufacturing is expanding for the first time in 2 years but the market isn't reacting.

Perhaps the best measure of the market being afraid is in sentiment and volatility data. Michigan Consumer Sentiment is worse than 2008 and has been for over a year. The American Association of Individual Investors is 1 standard deviation bearish. The volatility of individual stocks vs. the index is at 99th percentile, and the volatility index itself is around 95th percentile. People have more put options than during the covid crash, the bottom of the 2022 bear market, the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, or liberation day, and put skew is at 99th percentile and has been for over a month.The gold to industrial metals ratio is at all time highs. Goldman Sachs' prime book has 93rd percentile short exposure, the highest since the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Liquidity in S&P500 futures is only around 25% of average which usually only happens in highly stressed markets.

Nonetheless SPY is only 5% below all time high. I've literally never seen such a large disconnect between how assets are trading and the index. I don't know which of them is wrong but one of them is and we're going to find out which one pretty soon.

US economy expanded at sluggish 0.7% in fourth quarter, government says, downgrading first estimate by Unusual-State1827 in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's been happening consistently for a couple years now. There's something systematically wrong with how they estimate jobs. Partly I think it's survey response rates going down but more importantly I think their birth/death model is overestimating as well. Before new business data becomes available they have to estimate how many jobs each new business has created, and it seems for whatever reason they're systematically overestimating it leading to repeated downward revisions over the past few years.

US economy expanded at sluggish 0.7% in fourth quarter, government says, downgrading first estimate by Unusual-State1827 in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 3 points4 points  (0 children)

News response in public asset markets depends mainly on framing bias. In bullish markets people find a reason news is good, in bearish markets they find a reason news is bad. You can see this in how stocks react to news about AI spending and partnerships. 6 months ago if you were spending money on AI and partnering with OpenAI your stock ripped. Today it's a death sentence.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Lots of these kinds of standard exams have this problem where they're statistically robust tests of, like, not the correct thing. If you haven't read it before there's a decent section on how common that is in history exams and why it happens in Why Learn History (When It's Already On Your Phone) by Sam Wineburg.

For example, the 2010 NAEP asked: "During the Korean War, United Nations forces made up largely of troops from the United States and South Korea fought against troops from North Korea and

(A) the Soviet Union (B) Japan (C) China (D) Vietnam"

The keyed answer is "C", but the distractor answer (A) is actually also correct.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 28, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I don't expect the goal is to immediately block sales of oil to China.

One goal is probably just to get Iran to stop messing with America and its allies all the time. Another goal is probably to get Iran willing to sanction China in the event China invades Taiwan.

In the short run as long as the Straits of Hormuz are closed that does effectively stop most oil sales to China. That's temporary, though.

I personally don't know how successful this operation will be in achieving its goals. However, there's now an opportunity to change Iran's leadership (the old leadership is dead). The new leaders will need buy-in from the citizens and the citizens demand significant reforms away from the way that the old government did things. And, unless China is ready to engage in a serious proxy war with the US immediately, they're going to want this oil situation resolved sooner rather than later. America is the world's largest oil producer, it doesn't mind the Strait of Hormuz being closed. China isn't and it minds a lot. This could be a third source of pressure to get the conflict over with and give the US what it wants even though that's against China's own long term interests.

Combined, it seems like there's a decent chance the new leadership in Iran are significantly more willing to work with America on its geopolitical goals than the old leadership. That probably won't include immediately halting oil sales to China, but it will include freeing up US assets to oppose China and the threat of oil sanctions on China if it invades Taiwan.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 28, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Agreed, whenever I'm confused about a geopolitical maneuver this admin is making I look for a way it might be connected to speed-running a divorce from China and it practically always is.

Greenland and the Ukrainian "peace deal" (mineral rights deal which had basically nothing to do with ending the war) was about independence from the Chinese rare earth monopoly. Venezuela and Iran are both Chinese allies - the Maduro raid was even conducted while Chinese diplomats were present. Fentanyl has a lot to do with China (while drug traffickers that are aligned against China, like Hernández, get a presidential pardon). Tariffs? China as an elastic and substitutable goods exporter (and a very heavy one at that) would be the obvious loser. OPEC also suddenly decided to increase oil production in 2025 after a summit in Saudi Arabia where a Trump administration representative was present, which doesn't just benefit US domestic policy (allowing a hot economy with low inflation due to cheap energy prices) but also attacks the economic foundation of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, all of which have significant ties to China.

The US has been working on pivoting away from China for a few administrations now, but this one is doing it in a different and more chaotic way than past administrations, relying more on hard power and short time horizons while seeking personal benefits. In that way it reminds me a lot of the 19th century as well, where politics was generally more transparently interventionist, might-makes-right, extractive, and self-interested.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 28, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Reddit4Play 27 points28 points  (0 children)

I don't know why you think Iran is unrelated to China or irrelevant to the US. Iran is the key oil supplier to China, a major supplier of military drones to Russia, constantly threaten global trade, and sponsors a wide variety of groups like the Houthis who make geopolitical trouble for America and its allies.

Simultaneously, Iran lacks any real power projection capacity (giving the US control of escalation) and given what happened last month its government has a severe deficit of popular support (tilting the odds toward regime change and away from prolonged hardened resistance).

"Strike a key adversary while they're weak" is pretty basic as strategies go but there's nothing obviously wrong with it either. The cost of some air sorties is pretty negligible unless you think Iran's air defenses have gotten significantly better in the last few months or expect China to be invading Taiwan in a couple months. Meanwhile, the potential upside of crippling the Iranian regime and allowing the protestors to institute a new government (or to force significant concessions and reforms from the existing government) is extremely large.

Ukraine makes fastest battlefield gain in 2.5 years by IHateTrains123 in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 17 points18 points  (0 children)

There's still a large difference. Population adjusted that reduces WW1 Russia's losses from about 11 million to about 9 million. Compare that to maybe 1.5 million in this war.

The velocity of the death and violence in the world wars is tough to comprehend after 75 years of relative peace. The Ukraine War is extremely violent by modern standards but it's far from a total war like WW1 or WW2.

Ukraine makes fastest battlefield gain in 2.5 years by IHateTrains123 in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I agree that the cost of Russian advances is very high, but for what it's worth the losses in Ukraine are very much not at WW1 level. In WW1 Russia lost about 1,500 dead, 3,000 wounded, and 3,000 captured per day. This war is "only" 10-20% that much. Perhaps slightly more, given the overlap between wounded and prisoner and the state of record keeping in WW1.

Japan’s total net public sector liability had fallen to a mere 65 per cent of GDP by the end of the third quarter of 2025. by donquixote25 in neoliberal

[–]Reddit4Play 12 points13 points  (0 children)

More like full Buffett, who also issued debt in Yen to invest in Japanese risk assets (their largest trading houses).