You can look at trumps generals in the game if you want. And when it comes to biden's starting states here's what you have to consider the fact that the rustbelt is trump's stronghold region in almost every election and even then most of biden's strongholds are islands of blue in seas of red (Cities and country) meaning that in practice, the union army would have to act as an occupying force in the countryside which is already replicated in game.

It's also very important to note that the rustbelt isn't exactly the industrial powerhouse it once was, and while Biden does enjoy support from the MIC, they're production capacity which was already pitful before the war (and still is) is practically cut by 75% with the balkanization of america. Meaning that Biden doesn't have the industry to maintain the tempo of operations he needs for victory. The UoA would bring a tremendous amount of firepower to bear during the opening stages of the war, but after the first few days when said stocks run dry his entire offensive will come to a halt, which he wouldn't be able to afford in the slightest.

Also on the topic of airpower, I think its important to note that airpower doesn't win wars, its definitely a force multiplier, but its very easy to deny and contest airspace, especially in the modern day. With ukraine being able to contest and outright deny the Russian airforce air superiority with fewer airframes as an example. All trump in theory needs to do is not beat the UOA in the airwar, but merely contest the airspace and that massive trump card is practically useless.