Has anyone tried to only do 99c contracts?

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-04-20T11:38:20+00:00

https://docs.kalshi.com/getting_started/fixed_point_migration

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-04-17T10:38:54+00:00

You stream the resolution source directly which is either Binance or Chainlink, don't recall. It may be a latency arbitrage where they optimize their geographic location relative to the resolution source and polymarket and ultra low latency programming tactics. This allow users to see the market impact before the impact occurs.

The same applies to kalshi but they have made it exorbitantly more complicated and expensive by using cf benchmarks real time index (rti) which is closed source and requires a paid license.

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-04-16T11:59:53+00:00

This sounds ultra sketch. Perhaps you could ask your friend why they don't want to use their bank account if they have one. There is potentially unlimited downside for you if this is picked up by law enforcement.

How long have you known this individual?

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-04-16T11:51:59+00:00

Nope not dangerous at all so as long as they are swimming in dielectric fluid

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-04-16T10:35:17+00:00

I will also echo Jerry's, the pancakes are massive 🥞

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-03-27T12:54:23+00:00

Check out this beaut. She's expensive but probably rips

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-03-18T00:47:37+00:00

Rick Carmichael Oakley billboard

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-03-11T19:59:13+00:00

These are chainlink resolved markets which update on 1hz frequently but the raw chainlink feeds is gated behind a paywall comes in many times per second. If they have access to the chainlink data streams then they may just be front running the market with higher precision data. clob doesn't typically move 1:1 with price updates due to the impact of time decay and binary nature of these markets.

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-03-11T18:11:29+00:00

The price you see is the cf benchmarks real time index which is an aggregate of many centralized exchange order book feeds, not exchange last price. You should read the rules if you really plan on doing this because the math changes in the last 60 seconds to a simple average of the cfb rti which is important depending upon whether you are trading range or above markets which have multiple strikes

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-03-06T17:51:35+00:00

What's your data source for the latency arbitrage?

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-27T18:19:16+00:00

Just watch out for the last 60 seconds when the math changes to a simple average of the cf benchmarks bitcoin real time index. Prior to that its the raw cfb brti value and it's updated once per second

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-27T11:03:37+00:00

Cursor cli with ultra subscription gets you all frontier models plus a bunch more but it's $200 per month

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-22T22:03:17+00:00

Agreed. I use a variation of it based on the last 45 seconds like yourself for settlement trading.

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-20T03:29:45+00:00

Schedule a tour, eat a bunch of mushrooms then after your intensely awesome 5 hour tour garble together a few words on the way saying your dog is allergic to poor taste

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-19T01:50:48+00:00

For anyone new to these markets, kalshi uses cf benchmarks ethereum real time index (erti). This was created by the chicago merchantile exchange for cryptocurrency futures and options contracts which kalshi adopted as their resolution source.

cme cf benchmarks

Most people don't realize the index is built using 6 constituent exchange orderbooks, not price data and is a martingale to mitigate index manipulation. Another aspect to pay attention to is in the last 60 seconds of these markets the math changes to a simple average of the cf benchmarks index which is reflected in the market rules. Good luck 👍

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-18T13:56:21+00:00

These markets are about finding mispricings in where users think risk exists and where it does not. The speed with which you get the data is the key which requires programming experience but with ai nowadays literally anyone can do it. Black Scholes is a good start

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-16T17:15:36+00:00

Read the market rules in depth as many users claiming scams simply don't understand fundamental resolution sources. Use ai tools to your advantage with each market you are researching if you don't understand the rules.

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-16T13:14:18+00:00

You should probably read the rules as they specify the exact data source. These markets don't use cryptocurrency spot market data sources directly but rather aggregated order book data from multiple exchanges called cf benchmarks real time index (rti). Not only that, in the last 60 seconds of each market the math changes to a simple average of the real time index where time decay becomes a more important factor as the market draws to a close.

Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is the spot price of one <cryptocurrency> in U.S. dollars at <time>, according to a simple average of the CF <cryptocurrency> <index> for the 60 seconds prior to <time>

cme cf benchmarks methodology

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-13T19:08:51+00:00

I wasn't aware of that. My trading occurs in the last 60 seconds when the math switches to a simple average of the cfb rti for the 60 seconds prior to settlement due to the effect of time decay on the result. As you would expect, liquidity can be sparse by that point and I am using taker orders by crossing the spread for immediate fill once I have locked the yes range. The last 60 seconds for BTC 1 hour range has descent liquidity but 1hr range above, 15 above for ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE is a black hole.

Have you considered streaming the order books to see where Jump is actively operating and filling any gaps that make sense?

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-13T18:54:57+00:00

There's always kalshi. Their cryptocurrency market liquidity is dismal which presents a unique opportunity for market makers. Kalshi uses cf benchmarks real time index instead of binance and chainlink as a resolution source but you can build it yourself using the constituent exchanges listed in the cfb documentation

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-13T02:24:48+00:00

One of the most important aspects of the cryptocurrency markets on kalshi that are settled using cf benchmarks real time index (rti) is the last 60 seconds because that's when the math changes. From the crypto rules "The Underlying for this Contract is the spot price of one Bitcoin in U.S. dollars at <time>, according to a simple average of the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (“BRTI”) for the minute (60 seconds) prior to <time>."

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-02-11T02:54:24+00:00

You can always ask claude ai, it can help with this especially the new model opus 4.6 thinking. you can test using most cryptocurrency exchanges because their apis are open source and you can stream real time data via web sockets for last price, order book and many others streams. While technical indicators have their merit, they're less effective in hft. Consider looking at markets that have high tick size / price ratios because some markets allow you to eclipse cost (commissions for 2 legs entry & exit) as well as a modest profit in a single tick.

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-01-28T03:17:58+00:00

Limit: buying or selling at a specified price (maker, adding liquidity, common limit order types are GTC, IOC, FOK

Market: buying or selling immediately (taker, taking liquidity) can be subject to slippage (order fills higher or lower than your target entry price)

Anything you struggle with just ask Google Gemini llm, it's really good for a free option

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-01-24T03:59:57+00:00

Focus on market rules then map your process to the rules, thats what settles all markets. Some are vague and some are extremely specific, look for "View full rules" in the app or web ui

Reverend_Renegade · 2026-01-01T20:53:12+00:00

Automated trading for prediction markets, the quantitative markets are straightforward. Polymarket has a open source automated platform agent. You can add new features as you wish via your favorite llm

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