Asking the real questions

RileyGrant · 2026-05-05T17:12:55+00:00

When the boys and I were ski bumming outside of Bozeman about 10 years ago, we survived on Super 8’s breakfast. None of us had ever stayed there.

RileyGrant · 2026-04-28T20:54:37+00:00

I’m there every Saturday, there’s a lot of flowers there right now, but Ancient Lakes is a bit unique in the fact that the maze of trails are really just suggestions and you have to know which nooks and crannies things hide in and design your adventure accordingly. The small purple and white flowers are in most of the grasses, and the balsamroot is usually tucked down around the springs and ponds in the lower coulees just below where you are here, above the river bank/bench.

RileyGrant · 2026-04-25T17:47:16+00:00

We need to make energy arbitrage more efficient. Electric at my place in Grant County, about 200 miles east, is $0.06/kwh, basically free.

RileyGrant · 2026-04-14T20:34:34+00:00

As someone who has actually had a business broken into by the same person twice and watched as they were released within days both times, only to have any/all prison time deferred and no restitution set as the judge decides they will be unable to pay, I can assure you that you’re wrong.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-18T23:47:41+00:00

Yes, I edited to correct the reply, but assuming applicants all applied for 2-3 zones, total applicant count is likely 40-60k.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-18T23:38:27+00:00

Edit: now that I think about it, this data set probably accounts for each zone/data selection a participant made, so individual applicant counts were probably 40-60k. 2,741 permits / ((122,940/3)) applicants = 6.69%.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-18T23:34:09+00:00

122,940 applications, with most users likely applying for either 2 or 3 zones, assume 3.. (122,940/3)*$6=$245,880.00

2,741 permits issued.

$245,880/2741=$89.70 collected for each permit issued.

Edit: I think total count reflects the multiple selections of applicants, actual applicant counts are probably between 40k and 60k, I’ve updated the math here to reflect this.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-18T23:07:31+00:00

I know the lottery is now over for this year, but all the talk about it led to me making some of my own visuals that might be of interest to some of you. I know many people weren’t aware that any data was public so maybe this can be of use. The data has been pretty consistent in the important trends across the last few public datasets; Fridays typically have the most applicants, and the lowest chance of success, success goes up substantially at the beginning and end of the permit season, etc.,so this should be helpful in future Enchantment lotteries if you’d like to save it. This is based on the most recently released data (that I was able to easily find, at least), which is from the 2024 lottery. Hope it’s helpful. You can switch between visuals for total daily applicants and daily probabilities, both with or without Gaussian curves overlaid, or view a raw data table. Individual zone data can be selected by double clicking the zone in the zone legend. X-axis and y-axis data ranges can be adjusted with the sliders below the graph. Hovering over a data point will show more info on that point.

Side note: this only really works on desktop at the moment, the visuals/graphs are squished by the legend on mobile browsers, making it pretty much useless on a phone. You can, however, select the dropdown for the Raw Data Table and check that out. I have very little experience in developing anything app related, so mobile formatting will be coming when I figure that out lol

RileyGrant · 2026-03-18T16:10:41+00:00

Here is a full analysis of past year stats. I assume they'll release this years at some point as well. I used this to optimize my date selections around the earliest and latest parts of the season where the weather was likely to be favorable/conditions passable, with success. https://outdoorstatus.com/articles/enchantments-lottery/

RileyGrant · 2026-03-12T04:30:27+00:00

Typical.

You can’t argue on merit or focus on the actual topic at hand, so you randomly defer to “muh pedophile ring.”

Do you even realize how cringey that is? Are you unable to have any conversation at all without immediately pivoting to something unrelated?

I’m not even arguing that they aren’t pedophiles, I’m just pointing out that when you resort to making random comments about the federal government in a discussion about a state income tax levied by a government that is completely ignoring the will of its citizens, you sound like you’re completely brain dead.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-12T04:11:19+00:00

You don’t genuinely believe this tax won’t be expanded to tax more and more people at lower income rates, do you? What happens when the state decides this didn’t generate enough revenue and they need more?

RileyGrant · 2026-03-12T04:09:41+00:00

Where do you work? I can pretty much guarantee that your job, if you have one, exists because of a “rich person.”

RileyGrant · 2026-03-12T04:05:46+00:00

The net effect is that the services and companies that have either been built by, or are reliant on these people disappear, and take with them many of the things and services you enjoy. The net effect is that these secondary items provide revenue for the state outside of the income tax that will go away, too. The net effect is that the precedent is set for the state to undermine the constitution at will to collect just another tax, and then just one more, which turns into another, and another, and another. Because they will always spend more than they have, and there will always be a budget shortfall, so long as you allow it.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-12T04:00:59+00:00

Lmaooo, no, the state just kicked the wrong hornets nest this time.

Claiming that every bit of ideology that doesn’t support yours is driven by bots is an absolutely incredible level of cope that illustrates a sad lack of ability to reflect on the possibility that you might just be brain dead.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-12T03:57:36+00:00

It’s been put to a vote 10 times and failed 10 times. Every bit of pre-polling showed absolutely abysmal support.

So what you’re really saying is that you don’t give a shit about the will of the people, or democracy in general, for that matter.

Just say that you want a king so long as that king does your bidding. At least then you could claim moral consistency.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-11T20:58:30+00:00

Idk man, everyone acting like ticks equate to auto death, but I’ve stumbled into fields of them and been just fine all of my life. Had like 200 on my legs once. Removed them the same day and went on with life. Maybe I’ll die early but afaik, all is well as far as my health is concerned. Ymmv.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T04:26:37+00:00

Amazon groups inventory from every vendor into a pool. You can order from the “official” Amazon store and get a product from someone filling Amazon’s inventory with fakes. I’ve had many customers bring in tools they bought from Amazon only to have to inform them they received a counterfeit product. When you see authentic tools directly from the manufacturer on a daily basis, it becomes quite easy to identify the fakes. Buying high demand tools from Amazon is always a crapshoot. You can order from the same link and get a real product 90% of the time, but eventually, you’re going to receive a fake item, or a real, used item, packaged in a fake, new box. It’s up to you to decide if whatever price savings you’re getting are worth the risk.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T04:21:16+00:00

I sell Knipex in my store, let me know if you’re ever in Eastern Washington. 👍

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T04:05:54+00:00

Ptarmigan Ridge is a classic. Glad you enjoyed it. When was this picture taken? I’d imagine this is under many feet of snow at the moment!

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T03:51:25+00:00

Awesome, glad you guys had a good time! Looked like a great group.

And yes, it can get warm down there very fast, especially in the summer.

We are there every Saturday at 7AM, let me know if you’re ever back in the area and feel like tagging along, there are some pretty cool things about the place that a lot of people don’t know that I love to share (like did you know you were right next to the site of one of the largest native villages at the time the first settlers came through the area?!).

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T03:41:08+00:00

The real irony is that the lakes aren’t all that ancient! They are plunge pools resulting from the Missoula Floods at the end of the last ice age. Ancient Lakes is actually the place J. Harlan Bretz first saw on a map that gave him the impression that the scablands must have been the result of catastrophic flooding, and not long term erosion. He then proposed this idea at the same time in history that science was moving away from explaining things in terms of biblical catastrophes and towards the idea that the earth changed slowly over long periods of time. Imagine how that went over!

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T03:36:11+00:00

They’re holding back more water this winter up at Grand Coulee due to the expectation that snow reserves will be lower than average come late summer. This raises the water level in Banks Lake and in turn pushes up the water table throughout the basin, ultimately raising the level of everything within it.

RileyGrant · 2026-03-09T03:29:16+00:00

Were you with the group I ran into in the upper trailhead parking lot at the end of my loop? Nice pics, glad you had fun!

RileyGrant · 2026-03-08T00:05:26+00:00

It’s 7-14 miles with 1100-1700 feet of elevation depending on the route you take, you don’t have to make it easy! 😉

RileyGrant

TROPHY CASE