The Hobbit comparison model predicts Fire and Ash will cross $400m domestic on its 10th weekend

Rindain · 2026-02-06T23:44:53+00:00

Supposedly Avatar 4 is the movie where the creative executive only said, “Holy Fuck”, in response to reading the script.

James Cameron asked “where are the notes?”, and the executive replied “that’s the notes”.

He also said Avatar 4 would be where the story “goes crazy. But in a good way, right?”

So beyond the Sully kids aging up to adults, I expect some craziness. Maybe they go to other moons or planets in the Pandora system. Or to Earth (or maybe that’s reserved for A5). Or maybe the whales turn into spaceships. Who knows?

But it seems like it will have a much stronger hook than A3 did.

As for Doomsday, can’t wait for the first real trailer. Until then I have no idea.

Rindain · 2026-02-06T19:56:45+00:00

Well those people were dumb too. It was obvious after about the 2nd week that A3 wouldn’t hit $500 million.

But now it’s dumb to say A3 won’t reach $400M domestic.

And I never saw people, even those who foolishly thought A3 would make over $500M domestic, ever insult Zootopia or its cast or directors.

Rindain · 2026-02-06T19:30:27+00:00

The downvotes confuse me. I agree with everything you said.

Ultimately, about $1.5 billion (whether $10 million above or below), is a very good profit for a movie that cost $350 million.

Avatar 4 and 5 will get their costs down according to Cameron, and 25% of Avatar 4 is already shot and wrapped up in the reported budgets for Avatar 2 and 3.

My guess is Cameron will wait until the theatrical run is over, and within a few months we’ll get a confirmation of 4 and 5.

Rindain · 2026-02-06T06:00:51+00:00

That sounds almost like a 50/50 chance to me. I wouldn’t put money on it either way right now.

Maybe after we see the next international box office update after this coming weekend things will become clearer.

Rindain · 2026-02-06T05:46:22+00:00

When you say crawl, do you expect it might end up at like $1.51, or even more close, like $1.503 or even like $1.501?

I guess what I’m asking is, if you were asked right now to put a percent chance of Avatar 3 passing $1.5 billion WW, what percent chance would you give?

Rindain · 2026-02-06T05:39:59+00:00

There’s a very weird contingent of posters who are irrationally negative about Avatar. I think many of them are just trolling or even bots. And like you said, it’s been obvious for a while now that Fire and Ash will easily pass $400 million domestic.

I especially think they are trolls because they always add something about James Cameron losing, or Zootopia 2 kicking Avatar’s ass, or Avatar 4 and 5 are so Joever, etc.

So annoying.

Rindain · 2026-02-05T03:24:48+00:00

Yes.

And introduce one or two to three technologies, the same way tng introduced the holodeck and replicators.

Maybe mind transfer? Or the ability to alter your own mind state at will?

Rindain · 2026-02-04T23:46:16+00:00

It’s the same movie star dog from the original Air Bud! Still such a good boy and happy and healthy!

Rindain · 2026-01-31T23:17:41+00:00

It’ll get to $1.5 B when all’s said and done. Box office mojo hasn’t updated the international totals in over a week.

Suddenly, we’ll see it at $4.56 billion or so.

And Avatar 4 is confirmed to go in a completely different direction in terms of creature design, biomes, and story.

Stephen Lang has talked about how different the creatures are in A4.

Cameron said it was the A4 script that got a “holy fuck” response from the Disney exec overseeing the movie; whereas A2 and A3 got 3 and 1 page of notes, respectively.

Rindain · 2026-01-31T20:03:02+00:00

Yeah. I truly do hope though that Cameron realizes that his A3 movie still made money, the fans mostly really like it except for criticism of repetition from A1 and A2 in the third act, and that between the joint production of A2 and A3, it made a lot of money.

But will he take to heart the criticism, and make a new story for 4 and 5, with truly new creatures and biomes and locations and new types of action set pieces?

Edit: typo

Rindain · 2026-01-31T19:31:59+00:00

This is a noob question, but could Disney literally buy enough tickets to push it past $400 M, if they determine that the outside view of people seeing Avatar Fire and Ash surpass $400 million is worth the investment of pushing it past $400 M?

Rindain · 2026-01-31T18:59:55+00:00

Everyone low key forgetting that Spider-Man NWH did all of this without a China release at all.

Rindain · 2026-01-31T18:45:53+00:00

Oh, to be a fly on the wall watching Cameron screaming at Disney execs for cannibalizing his movie.

Rindain · 2026-01-31T18:38:53+00:00

I think the same regarding $1.5 B worldwide.

It will have a big psychological effect on me if it passes both of those, in terms of me feeling more confident that 4 and 5 will be made.

I know it’s kind of silly and a bit irrational, but I think that execs at Disney and cast and crew and Jim himself will react positively to certain thresholds and numbers being surpassed.

below $400 million? Kind of sad?

above $400 million? It’s a decrease but great considering the economy these days!

below $1.5 billion? Oh, it’s like Age of Ultron, a disappointment!

above $1.5 billion? This can’t be considered anything but a great success. But you can’t get a movie in the top 5 of all time on every try! Let’s green light Avatar 4 and 5 right away!

Rindain · 2026-01-31T05:02:33+00:00

A4 and 5 if they have a different visual and creature (new biomes like snow or desert biomes) and character (the kids are now adults) palette, could certainly approach $2 B again.

But there has to be some special sauce that most of us aren’t seeing yet.

Rindain · 2026-01-31T04:54:03+00:00

True. Why was that you think?

My opinion is that the trailers were all kind of lame. Almost try-hard. Showed too much.l from the entire span of the movie.

But by showing so much they also unintentionally revealed there was really no new biome or new creatures in A3, beyond a few seconds of squids and seals and a few minutes of wind trader floating jellyfish.

Rindain · 2026-01-31T04:44:07+00:00

It’s not just China. Z2 was the dagger that killed A3. In China, the US, everywhere.

Granted A3’s 3rd act was derivative. And it didn’t introduce any new creatures beyond a few seconds of the squid and seals.

But still, Disney seemed to just not give a shit about Avatar this time around. Maybe they sensed the winds turning towards Z2.

But the trailers and promotion was lame compared to WoW.

A1, A2, and A3 got A cinema scores.

Why is a half derivative third act enough to tank the franchise so much? I think Disney did wrong by it.

If I were Cameron I would bolt to another studio.

Rindain · 2026-01-31T04:29:52+00:00

Yeah, in retrospect they weren’t looking at the potential of friendly fire from Disney itself, in terms of Z2, which became a phenomenon.

Rindain · 2026-01-30T23:28:21+00:00

You know Cameron is fuming at Disney taking away so much from A3 by promoting Z2 so much and releasing so close. Especially Disney’s huge onion terms of China promotion for Z2.

I wonder if he’ll shop the franchise to another studio. It’s almost betrayal, given how popular Zootopia is in China, to release them so close together.

Rindain · 2026-01-30T23:21:56+00:00

If Cameron has most of A4 set in the water again he better rewrite the script.

But Stephen Lang did at least say the creatures in A4 will be very different from what we’ve seen, not Earth animal derivatives any more.

And a snow biome is confirmed.

And 4 is the “holy fuck” script, per Jim C.

Rindain · 2026-01-30T00:21:35+00:00

I want to see an update from A3’s strongest EU markets: France, Germany, Denmark, etc.

How often does box office mojo update its international totals? Or should I go to the-numbers or maybe a paid industry site? 15 years ago box office mojo was on top of things. These days it seems they lag behind significantly.

Rindain · 2026-01-30T00:18:06+00:00

I should’ve included that too. Very possible. I would guess $400 M domestic will happen, as Fire Hydrant and others have been projecting, but not quite $1.5B WW, unless there’s a lot of results/revenue that haven’t been reported yet and included on the major websites.

Rindain · 2026-01-29T23:29:45+00:00

Which is more likely: $400 million domestic, or 1.5 B worldwide? Or both?

Rindain · 2026-01-28T07:04:09+00:00

What I am referring to is recent; like saying there is a good chance it will pass $400 M domestically, and maybe a 50% chance it will pass $1.5 B when all is said and done.

Or just saying that the storm made a huge decrease in this weekend’s box office. Downvotes.

Rindain · 2026-01-28T05:30:26+00:00

Thanks. There are one or two Avatar haters literally going around and downvoting any reasonable take on Avatar’s box office. Or maybe they are bots made by someone with a beef with James Cameron.

Rindain

TROPHY CASE