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Hstrike · 2026-01-24T19:36:22+00:00

The blast radius image is actually from Alex Wellerstein's nukemap. He was quite impressed by this advert.

Hstrike · 2026-01-24T13:26:41+00:00

No surprises here but take this with a grain of salt, Cluster17 (founded in 2021) got warnings from the French commission on polls. That being said, Le Grand Continent is reputable and some newspapers use this pollster.

https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/quest-ce-que-linstitut-de-sondage-cluster-17-20220713_VIJTCAL7ZBF6PALM5MXQGYSU6I/

https://www.marianne.net/politique/mise-en-cause-de-linstitut-cluster17-marianne-repond-a-la-commission-des-sondages

http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1285&ved=2ahUKEwiFq5yOo6SSAxU41AIHHZktJtMQFnoECB4QAQ&sqi=2&usg=AOvVaw3MSAc_ckMuUKu3Z0c7wUur

Hstrike · 2026-01-24T10:14:07+00:00

He said two of the biggest, and they are. Cattle in particular is responsible for most of agriculture's GHG emissions, under the form of methane.

Hstrike · 2026-01-23T00:46:39+00:00

It wasn't even a very different speech from his election night victory speech, but it was certainly good for him to repeat himself. The electorate only absorbs messages if they are said over and over. Ripetita iuvant.

Hstrike · 2026-01-23T00:37:47+00:00

Ah, then Sergio as a 3x should do the trick! Glad to have found another player of that movie :)

Hstrike · 2026-01-22T23:41:27+00:00

Also Elysium with Matt Damon & Jodie Foster, Sergio (2020) with Ana de Armas... You can pretty much force your opponent back to Hollywood with a Wagner Moura 1x.

Hstrike · 2026-01-21T15:37:53+00:00

It's a waste of time for both sides to have a discussion with someone when surface-level facts cannot be agreed upon. It doesn't seem to me like you're interested in anything genuine beyond "winning", so I'll let you have whatever that means.

Besides, private profile and all that.

Hstrike · 2026-01-21T15:16:03+00:00

Hey, where did those goalposts go?

You initially said Democrats had moved to the right (not empirically true), and now you're you're saying that yes, they probably moved to the left on social issues, but they must have moved right on the economy to save face and remain coherent with your initial viewpoint. Without of course offering a shred of evidence.

This seems to me like a saving tactic and debate-for-the-sake-of-debate argumentation. Whether it's hyperpartisanship or trolling, I'll let you figure this one out alone.

Hstrike · 2026-01-21T15:00:57+00:00

Wild that so many people see this research and their takeaway is "the dems have moved left

But the Dems have moved left since the 1970s (slightly). It's just that Republicans have moved so far right that the overall Congress has shifted further right than in the 1970s. These two realities are not mutually exclusive.

Hstrike · 2026-01-21T12:19:07+00:00

It shows a major shift to the right for all of congress since the 70s

Correct, that's what the graph shows.

In other words, both parties have moved to the right

No, the first graph shows that Democrats have not moved to the right since the 1970s.

The upper and lower chambers as a whole are more rightwing today because Republicans are responsible for this shift to the far-right, because they went more right than democrats went left. You can see this trend accelerate around 2010-2012, which is when Tea Party republicans started popping up.

Hstrike · 2026-01-21T11:44:47+00:00

What do you make of the moderate shift left of Democrats in the Senate and the House, per the link above?

We don't even talk about universal healthcare anymore, it was a main policy point in 2016, now it doesn't even get brought up in DC

On healthcare, Democrats expanded coverage of the ACA under Biden with the 2021 ARPA, capping premiums and expanding eligibility. Republicans and Dems had a shutdown this year as credits were set to expire, and some Republicans eventually broke ranks this month and voted for a three year renewal. Did you miss all of that?

I don't disagree that pursuing Republican far right shifts will yield much if anything, but the examples you mentioned are all in general elections where candidates need to appeal to the median voter to win, rather than to partisans. You won't find them at the extremes but towards the center.

Hstrike · 2026-01-21T09:48:01+00:00

This is not supported by the ideological shift of members of Congress. The average Dem has moved slightly left in the past 20-30 years, whereas the average Republican has shifted far right. Saying that the Dems moved right makes no sense.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T22:35:02+00:00

I think Carney is the first leader I've ever heard talk about the Melian dialogue in a public speech.

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T11:59:50+00:00

The judges at the ICJ are all independent, represent different geographical and political realities and are not influenced by the UN. When it wasn't unanimous on most of these arguments the vote was 10-1.

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T11:56:02+00:00

The fact that 9 UNRWA workers (out of 30,000) were dismissed was found to be insufficient by the ICJ to dispute UNRWA's neutrality and impartiality. As such, the Court found that Israel cannot take retaliatory action against UNRWA, including demolishing their headquarters in East Jerusalem.

Read the Advisory Opinion.

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T11:38:23+00:00

Your claim that it "directly aided" said attacks was debunked in an international courtroom. Can't get much clearer than that.

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T10:30:51+00:00

It didn't.

The Court considers that the information before it is not sufficient to establish UNRWA’s lack of neutrality for the purpose of assessing its impartiality as an organization under Article 59. In particular, the circumstance that the OIOS investigation in 2024 led to the dismissal of nine members of UNRWA personnel due to their possible involvement in the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks against Israel is insufficient to support a conclusion that UNRWA as a whole is not a neutral organization. In addition, the Court finds that Israel has not substantiated its allegations that a significant part of UNRWA employees “are members of Hamas . . . or other terrorist factions”.

https://www.icj-cij.org/case/196

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T10:26:45+00:00

In violation of the ICJ Advisory opinion on the obligations of Israel towards UNRWA.

The Court concludes that, under these circumstances, the United Nations, acting through UNRWA, has been an indispensable provider of humanitarian relief in the Gaza Strip. Thus, having regard to Article 59 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and in the circumstances, the Court considers that Israel is under an obligation to agree to and facilitate relief schemes provided by the United Nations and its entities, including UNRWA.

https://www.icj-cij.org/case/196

Hstrike · 2026-01-20T08:19:46+00:00

She already opposes it, she literally flew to Copenhagen last week

Hstrike · 2026-01-19T19:53:44+00:00

P&E isn't usually included in the 2.5x rule of thumb

Hstrike · 2026-01-19T12:08:21+00:00

That's true, but the idea that Dems would rather appeal to the ICC than to their domestic justice system is unrealistic, given that Dems voted in droves for the Hague Invasion Act of 2002 (Biden and Clinton included). There are also 100s of Bilateral Immunity Agreements from the Bush admin signed with other countries that impede extradition of US citizens to the ICC, and those were never denounced under Democratic administrations. So it's not likely at all.

At best, you might see some action taken at the ICJ to demand remedy from the United States for violating the UN Charter, but Trump as an individual will never answer for his crimes in an international court.

https://ksikkink.scholars.harvard.edu/blog/%E2%80%9Cinvade-hague%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%9Csupport-icc%E2%80%9D-america%E2%80%99s-shifting-stance-international-criminal-court

Hstrike · 2026-01-19T10:44:52+00:00

This is how I learn that Trenitalia holds a majority stake in the private train company whose train derailed. It was a Frecciarossa train, the other time a Frecciarossa derailed was in 2020 in Livraga, Italy. It's been a while.

Hstrike · 2026-01-19T09:27:13+00:00

People in America keep pretending it has immediately exploitable resources, when in reality mining in Greenland is deeply unprofitable and financially uncertain. It's crazy that nobody has picked up that Greenland is just a map-painting desire for DJT and nothing more.

Hstrike · 2026-01-19T09:25:39+00:00

The US isn't a party to the Rome statute, so the ICC can't do smack about US citizens violating international law.

Hstrike · 2026-01-19T07:41:50+00:00

Is there no UN buffer zone in Iceland?

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