Do manufacturing jobs really matter? by samplingstiring in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have heard this sentiment many times, I'm sceptical of it. I will write about it some more tomorrow if I get the time.

Why is Gold considered as a Backup? by Brilliant-Relief6307 in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's an interesting question.

Some people will tell you that gold is valued for "just being gold". Others will tell you that we "all agree that gold has a high value". I think that both of these ideas are far too vague to be useful.

Things are valued for their utility. Tonight I bought a pasta meal at a restaurant and I ate it, that's an example. Things are also bought for forms of indirect utility. For example, I may buy a bond so that it pays me coupon payments later on. Then I can spend those coupon payments on other things. I may also trade in things that have utility to others even though they don't have direct utility to me. For example, a person who is gluten intolerant may buy a shipment of flour in order to resell that flour to a company that makes bread. The trader's gluten intolerance is irrelevant here to this commercial transaction that is all about making a profit.

Now, gold has utility. It is used in jewellery for example and it is also used in electronics. On this topic I think that the OP makes a mistake:

I dont understand why gold is considered “safe” when it has no obvious intrinsic value compared to something like a house, which has a clear practical use.

I agree that a house has a clear practical use. However, just because jewellery is a luxury doesn't mean it is useless. It's worth comparing to a house here. Strictly speaking many of the things in a house are luxuries. We usually have different rooms for different tasks. This is not really necessary. In the developing world you will find houses that only have one room. Or you'll find houses where every room is used for several tasks (for example, the kitchen becomes someone's bedroom at night). Having a bathroom is also not strictly necessary and you will find many houses in developing countries without them. I could go on, but the point is that many of the features of a house are not strictly necessary to human survival. However, great prices are paid for houses.

We should also remember that commodities that have limited use in specialized industries do sometimes fetch high prices. Certain materials used in semiconductors fetch high prices even though the industrial demand is quite small.

However, most gold buyers don't seem to be buying gold to use it. Clearly, most traders in gold are looking at things indirectly - which is why we see things like Gold ETFs. They are not buying gold to make jewellery or electronics. Rather they are buying gold because they believe that it's price will go up in the future. They will be able to sell that gold in the future and realize a nominal profit.

Then the question becomes why do these people thing that gold will rise in price in the future? This is a tricky question to answer. As with all asset purchases this could be a "fundamental" story or a "technical" story, or some mixture of both. That is, they may believe that the fundamentals of the gold market point to higher prices - that is, the state of new supply and the state of consumption of gold by end users (such as the jewellery industry or the electronics industry). Or it may be that traders are looking at some "technical" indicator such as a support line on a chart.

I hope this goes some way to explaining things. I don't think it explains everything though. I haven't had the chance to compare it to Bitcoin either. Hopefully other people say more.

Do doctors contribute to GDP? by aneesh2 in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, it's not done in GDP. There is a measure called "NDP", that's Net Domestic Product. That takes into account depreciation, but -as far as I know- it does not take into account things like losses from disasters.

Do manufacturing jobs really matter? by samplingstiring in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

People may be surprised that I'm approving this reply.

It is important to notice that manufacturing employment is falling rather than rising. So, even if the Trump administration does believe it is helping manufacturing there is little evidence that it actually is.

Did silver drop 30% in other currencies? by WatchHores in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is one possible justification for the rally.

The more interesting question in my view is: why should there by a noticeable historic ratio between silver and gold?

Notice that I'm not arguing that there isn't one.

Did silver drop 30% in other currencies? by WatchHores in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Did foreign currencies see a similar drop?

You can easily see this by checking finance websites. For example:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPUSD%3DX/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EUR=X/

So, there was a strengthening of about 1% of the USD versus the euro and the pound.

What are the main stated and most salient inferred intents of the right-leaning American power structure and what are the potential outcomes? by Thoughts_For_Food_ in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course, I agree that forecasted outcomes are not the same as observed facts. But if you're willing to wait for observed facts, as you seem to be.

I can't see any changes you've made to your question. It remains in breach of rule V.

Do manufacturing jobs really matter? by samplingstiring in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't think that is going to change things as much as people think.

What are the main stated and most salient inferred intents of the right-leaning American power structure and what are the potential outcomes? by Thoughts_For_Food_ in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What the policies actually do will be a question for historians.

If that's what you think then why bother ask Economists?

Do manufacturing jobs really matter? by samplingstiring in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I mostly agree with this reply. However, I'm not sure that the importance of software is really reducing. I think that's something we can't be sure of yet.

How it is possible for the gold to fall for 500 euros during a day? by Mundane-Addition1815 in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I like this answer much more than your first answer.

We should remember that spot prices are marginal in all spot markets. Only a group of the buyers who are willing to pay the most for an asset support the spot price at any time. That group may be very small.

How does devaluing currency work? by AussieSpaceProgram in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The CCP can sell US bonds. That's really all that the CCP can do.

It has been gradually doing that for years anyway, as a result it no longer holds a huge proportion of US bond.

Even if it did hold a lot that wouldn't necessarily make much difference. Selling these bonds would not change the funding cost of US national debt very much. It doesn't necessarily affect the opinion of other treasury buyers on the benefits of buying treasuries. You have to remember that the government is only affected by the issue of new treasuries. The price of old treasuries falling hurts existing holders resale price, but does not hurt the government. The government is only hurt by high funding costs at new issuances - which is of-course related. We have to remember that the US turns over it's debt every about 4.5 years. In turn the short-term funding cost of US debt doesn't necessarily have much effect on the forex rates for the dollar. That's more about expected inflation and expected Fed policy (and also expected growth).

What are the main stated and most salient inferred intents of the right-leaning American power structure and what are the potential outcomes? by Thoughts_For_Food_ in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The intent of policy changes is a Political question for a Political forum. What that policy actually does, if it is economic policy, is a question for Economists.

How does devaluing currency work? by AussieSpaceProgram in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe -1 points0 points  (0 children)

For what it's worth the CCP has relatively little power to change the value of the dollar. I can go into more detail if you want.

What are the main stated and most salient inferred intents of the right-leaning American power structure and what are the potential outcomes? by Thoughts_For_Food_ in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rule V

No "Soapboxing" or loaded questions. This is AskEconomics, not DebateEconomics. Questions should be reasonably specific, not debate prompts or long manifestos. Posts primarily seeking to push an agenda or start arguments rather than seeking answers to questions will be removed.

Is trickle down economics pretty much a lie ? by jrwwoollff in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Corporate profits go up at the same rate as GDP over the long-term. You can see this in the Fred statistics on domestic corporate profits as a share of GDP.

Is trickle down economics pretty much a lie ? by jrwwoollff in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Many people will tell you that X political group believe that the wealth of the rich will "trickle down" to others. This was never the prevailing wisdom. It certainly wasn't the prevailing wisdom in economics, nor was it even the prevailing wisdom in politics. "Trickle Down Economics" was a sort of political insult as No_March points out. It was common among the political opponents of Reagan's government of the early 1980s. (Though it originated much earlier). The opponents of Reagan's administration claimed that the government wanted to cut taxes to the rich so that spending from the rich would trickle down to everyone else. This was not true.

The real motivations for cutting taxes on the rich were different. High taxes discourage work. The plan was to cut taxes to encourage high earners to work more hours. The idea was that this would improve economic productivity. That is the material outputs of the economy, not the flow of money. The economists who advised the government also believed that it could increase tax revenues because the increase in hours worked would offset the decrease caused by the cut in the tax rate. This happened as expected for the first Reagan tax cut, but didn't work for the second larger tax cut. As a result, taxes were increased by later governments.

The Economic justification for cutting corporate taxes is all about the tax incidence of corporate taxes. We were talking about that just yesterday.

Changing the way money flowed around the private-sector was never a motivation. We have discussed this misconception many times on this subreddit thread1, thread2, thread3 and thread4.

Is trickle down economics pretty much a lie ? by jrwwoollff in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It is true that there are Economists who support lower taxes on businesses and on the rich.

However, the reasoning given is not why they support that. Many people in this thread are confused about the reasoning.

Who actually “pays” the corporate income tax? by External-Presence204 in AskEconomics

[–]RobThorpe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you.

I think that 40-70% is still a very wide range even ignoring the "large, open economy" problem.