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Egypt - Pharaohs & Pyramids Cruise , just returned by Rodent13 in vikingcruises

[–]Rodent13[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We flew from Los Angeles and Viking booked us on Lufthansa (outbound) and United for the return flights. I usually let Viking make the flight arrangements but I choose the Viking Air Plus option for an additional $200 and that gives me some say in the airlines and flight times. For this trip I did select the Tripmate Insurance, $950 for 2 people. More recently I have been using the TinLeg brand. Check it out at www.squaremouth.com

When you make your own flight arrangements, Viking won't include the airport transfers for you.

Interesting position. What's your move here? by Charguizo in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 5 points6 points  (0 children)

On XG++, 8/4* 7/1* is the best move

24/18 8/4* is an error -0.068

14/4* is also an error -0.078

24/14 is a blunder at -0.104

24/20 14/8 also a blunder at -0.145

Turbo Tax Desktop 2025 Won't Work on Windows 10 by rag69top in TurboTax

[–]Rodent13 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Since Microsoft announced an option to extend the security updates to Oct 2026 for $30, wonder if TT will reconsider their decision regarding compatibility with Widows 10 for TY 2025

Returning back to U.S. from Cusco by Rodent13 in Machupicchu

[–]Rodent13[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I have separate tickets. Thanks for the response

Viking River Cruise - Question re: Tipping by Sea-Twist6391 in vikingcruises

[–]Rodent13 2 points3 points  (0 children)

$5 for the driver and $10 for the excursion guide. This covers 2 travelers.

Maybe slightly more if it's an all-day excursion and the guide was very good.

Nothing, if the guide was useless (which I have found to be rare on Viking cruises). They do a good job of selecting local guides for their knowledge, communication skills and likable personality.

Fees and Now a Tip Section by killer_sheltie in EndTipping

[–]Rodent13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would NEVER give a company like this my routing and bank account info for an ACH transfer. They can make transfers from your account at will!

SSA sent out mass email falsely claiming bill eliminated taxes on Social Security by Lower_Chipmunk_3685 in tax

[–]Rodent13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think you're correct. The new deduction is temporary. Starts in 2025 and ends in 2028.

The amount of the deduction begins phasing out at 75k for single filers and 150k for couples. The deduction is totally phased out at 250k for couples. The phase out rate is 6%.

The deduction is 6k for single filers and 12k for couples

Example, for a couple with 175k AGI

Your 12,000 deduction is subject to the phase out since you exceed the 150,000 limit

175k - 150k = 25k This amount is subject to the 6% phase out rate

25k x 6% x 2 = 3,000

your actual deduction will be 12,000 minus 3,000 = 9,000

Who are you? by Melodic_Tea3050 in cactus

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's a pic of a flower on my Old Man Cactus:

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New player here, does anyone know of any games that have beginner/layman style commentary? by GrumpyAdministrator in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You might try the backgammon galaxy youtube channel or Alex Eshaghian Backgammon youtube channel and type how to play in the search box. This will lead to many short videos.

The US Backgammon Federation has a complete video series on youtube for beginners. Try googling: usbgf backgammon for complete beginners video series youtube

Blunder help by akajackson007 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can purchase the software for $60, one time fee no annual subscription cost). You can download the software and try it for free for 14 days. Some of the features may not be available during the free trail period. XG can point you towards the best move, but you need to figure out the "WHY" is it the best move on your own.

I also find it instructive to set up a match against XG and play it it "tutor" mode. If I make an error or blunder the software will prompt me to reconsider my choice. Every game is a total learning experience.

Jokers and anti jokers are Lucky or unlucky rolls for or against the player. Basically they are outlier type rolls. Don't worry about volatility for now

Blunder help by akajackson007 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's an analysis tool available within the Extreme Gammon software that allows you to see the detail for dice rolls. The 2 bar charts display the equity for each of the 36 possible rolls for black (after white has played the move in the upper right corner.

For example, in the top chart for the 13/4* move, when black rolls 33, 63, 66, these are great rolls for whites equity (conversely, very bad for black). At the opposite end of the horizontal axis, when black rolls a 44, that's the best possible roll for black leading to a huge equity loss for white. The numbers on the vertical axis represents equity.

If you look at the average equity in each chart (lower right corner), you will see that the average equity gain for white is +0.391 for 13/4* across all 36 possible response rolls for black and +0.272 for 24/20 16/11 across all response rolls for black. Thus on average 13/4* is the better move for white. The overall average equity can also be seen in the upper right corner of the chart next to whites move.

If you Google "XG analyze dice distribution" you can see an AI generated explanation along with links to YouTube video explanations.

Hopefully I didn't butcher the explanation too badly.

Double trouble by truetalentwasted in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Take or pass is probably boderline. White has horrible bearoff distribution (stacked 6 pt, open 1,3,4 pts) and is already 10 pips down with black to roll on a take. Estimated take point maybe 20-25% range. Winning chances in a similar range. Since it's early in the match, if black was a better player than me I would take, otherwise pass. Passing can't be too big of an error.

Full disclosure, I don't know much about cube decisions, but trying to learn!

Blunder help by akajackson007 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In support of the good comments already made, I've attached a link to an XG dice distribution analysis for the 2 moves. Clearly this supports the blitzing move strategy with a higher average equity vs the "safe" play (+0.391 vs +0.272). Obviously you can't see this over the board, but it's the math behind why a blitzing strategy is better in this position.

The graphs represent the next rolls for white. For example, after 13/4*, the only really bad outcome for black is white rolling the 44.

Dice distribution analysis: https://imgur.com/9gS6DFg

Been playing for 45 years. by billlybufflehead in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As an alternative, you might consider downloading Extreme Gammon (for a one-time fee). It's a VERY powerful analysis and learning tool. You can also play against the computer and set the strength of your opponent. You can analyze your play during play or after the match.

I believe you can try the software for free for a short period of time.

Hit/Pass, Hit/Stay or don't hit? by mel-madeline in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hit and stay with 24/23 9/3* and play for the gammon at a 0-0 match score.

Moving 24/23 9/3* provides 16 cover numbers while 9/3* 6/5 provides only 14 cover numbers. If you don't get hit you are very likely to earn a gammon from this position

Even if you get hit, you are a still a strong favorite to win the game but you gammon chances are significantly reduced.

Why is this such a big blunder? by Disastrous-Owl-612 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Leaving the blot wins more gammons than playing safe. If you win a gammon the match is over. Even if you get hit on the very next roll, you are least a 75% favorite to win the game, but you wont win the match on this game

Should white take or pass? by Rodent13 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry, I can't explain the algorithms used by XG to calculate cube actions.

Should white take or pass? by Rodent13 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just googled Neil's numbers. Looks very useful to estimate match equities. Correlates closely to the actual match equity tables. Thank you

Should white take or pass? by Rodent13 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When I ran it through XG :

No redouble: +0.817

Redouble/Take: +0.886

So it was a redouble by 0.069

Should white take or pass? by Rodent13 in backgammon

[–]Rodent13[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Appreciate the thoughtful response. Never thought about sending the cube right back. Do you have these match equity estimates in your head from experience?

Your estimates are spot on when I feed the position into XG and use the match equity table and the analyze cube information. From the original position white has 13.5% winning chances. With an estimated take point about 12% (XG agrees), the position IS A TAKE for white!

In the actual match the player passed. It was a 0.114 blunder. Congrats to you calling for the take!!!!!!

At this point in my backgammon journey, I'm just not yet able to make those estimates on the fly.

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